Here Is Why the Germans Cannot Determine Their Future After Merkel's Departure

An Italian newspaper said the most prominent revelation of the German general election results was that "Germans are unable to determine the future of their country after the end of Chancellor Angela Merkel's reign."

This is illustrated by the high reluctance of voters and the fact that a party did not clearly excel during the elections held on September 26, 2021, according to The Lanova Newspaper.

 

Disappointment

In theory, the Social Democratic Party was leading the results, but with a slim majority it would only allow it to form a government with heterogeneous alliances.

It noted that everyone in Germany was disappointed from the moment the first expectations were made.

The Social Democratic Party is expected to lead by about a quarter of the vote, or more than 25 percent, followed by Chancellor Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), led by its candidate Armin Lachett.

The latter fell after winning 32.9 percent of the total vote in the previous election, reaching only 24 percent after the preliminary results.

In contrast, the historic left-wing rival, the Social Democratic Party, led by former Finance Minister Olaf Schultz, regained more than six points from the 2017 election with 20.5 percent, to nearly 26 percent in the current election. 

Overall, the newspaper considered that the results of the two main rival parties are very close, predicting that there will be no huge difference in the final results following the completion of the full counting of votes.

In the polls, the Italian newspaper reported that Merkel's coalition of surveyors at the beginning of the year won 35-36 percent of the voting intentions. 

The newspaper pointed out that the significant decline in voting intentions of the coalition began from February onwards. 

The decline during the corona pandemic vaccination campaign emerged after an emergency period in which Merkel's administration was well received at home and abroad thanks to its good governance, particularly because of the chancellor's decision to withdraw from politics. 

On the other hand, opinion polls initially showed a drop in voting intentions for the SPD and remained at around 15 percent for almost the year.

This opened the way for expectations that the historic German left-wing party would fall to third place behind the Green Party. 

 

Leap Forward

At the beginning of the summer, the newspaper noted that Schultz's campaign, for reasons that remain unclear, contributed to the current result. 

The Italian newspaper was surprised to see this shift, especially since former Finance Minister Olaf Schulz was involved, at least indirectly, in some major recent scandals such as the refusal to cooperate with the judiciary in investigating money laundering cases, "but that did not prevent the rise of his popularity among Germans."

It said the Green Party is the fastest growing in Germany's political landscape, with 15 percent of the primary results six percentage points ahead of previous elections.

However, it said the results were disappointing for the party's leader, Analina Berbock, especially since polls revealed a few months ago that between the end of April and the beginning of May, the party was ahead and could lead the elections.

Berbock was therefore preparing to rule as the first "environmental" adviser in the country's history before it clashed with reality in the election and eroded consensus around it to fall from 25 percent to 15 percent. 

According to the newspaper, in addition to some serious campaign mistakes monitored by some observers, this decline is due to German voters' fear of going into the unknown as part of an environmental revolution led by a green majority government. 

However, the party has made a leap forward and its role will be key to forming the next government, the paper says.

"The party that has upset supporters of Europe, the alternative for Germany, the EU's anti-immigration and conservative skeptic, has recorded a slight decline in this election," It continued. 

At the national level, Alternative for Germany won 10.5 percent of the total vote, down from 12.6 percent in the 2017 elections. 

In Saxony, it won a majority with 28 percent, ahead of the second-placed Social Democratic Party with 19 percent. 

It was also projected to outperform Thüringen by one percentage point over the same rival with 25 percent of the total vote. 

Lanova, with the arrival of Kotidiana, said the LDP's results were less interesting because of its stability at 11 percent, the same as the previous election.

In doing so, it maintains its historic role in determining balances, especially since the fall of the Berlin Wall, always with the left and right, "almost indifferently." 

Germany's hard-left Party (Linke) risks disappearing after recording weak results of only 5 percent, according to projections based on preliminary results.