As Trump threatens to strike Iran if the authorities move to kill protesters, Tehran has relied on Iraqi militias loyal to it to help suppress demonstrations that erupted across the country on December 28, 2025, sparked by a sharp economic downturn.

Iraq's parliamentary elections come amid a notable decline in Iran’s regional influence, an absence of security unrest in Sunni cities, the unprecedented boycott by the Sadrist movement since 2005, and the exclusive adoption of biometric voting cards.

The bombing of a major gas field in northern Iraq has raised questions about whether Iran is trying to escalate tensions, especially as its influence in the region declines following Hezbollah's defeat and the fall of Assad's regime.

Iraqi-Syrian relations have shifted dramatically over five decades, with recent changes after al-Assad’s ousting raising questions about future ties under Syria's new leadership.