Will the Biden Administration Prevent Bin Salman From Reaching the Throne of Saudi Arabia?

A Hebrew security website revealed that “Saudi Arabia is holding reconciliation talks with Iran mediated by Iraq, but at the same time it is producing ballistic missiles with the help of China in anticipation of a possible military attack by Tehran.”

“Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is trying to hold the stick in the middle to protect the interests of his country. The administration of US President Joe Biden fears that Saudi ballistic missile production will complicate the Vienna nuclear talks,” News One added.

 

New Mode

“The eighth round of Vienna nuclear talks started on December 27, 2021 in an atmosphere of pessimism. As it seems that Washington and the participating powers are determined to finally clarify whether an agreement can be reached with Tehran without resorting to other options, such as toughening sanctions or military action against Iran's nuclear facilities,” the Hebrew website indicated.

“Saudi Arabia, led by Bin Salman, the most powerful man in the kingdom, is preparing for all scenarios in the war against the Iranian nuclear threat,” it noted.

On December 23, 2021, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fouad Hussein called for direct negotiations between Iran and the United States to revive the nuclear agreement, while his country is mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia has agreed to issue visas to three Iranian diplomats to stay in the kingdom, as a new sign of improving relations between the two countries, according to what Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said during a press conference in Tehran with his Iraqi counterpart, announcing that the next round of Saudi-Iranian talks will be held soon in Baghdad.

In 2016, Iran and Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic relations between them, but in 2021, direct talks between them began, including four rounds, which were held in Baghdad; the aim of the Iraqi mediation was to prevent a military clash between them on its territory.

“Bin Salman is trying to save what is left and at least put his hands on an achievement that would bring peace to Saudi Arabia, such as stopping Houthi military attacks from Yemen on the kingdom’s cities and oil facilities. So he turned to the secret channel with Iran,” security analyst Yoni Ben-Menachem pointed out.

While the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, mouthpiece for the positions of Hezbollah and Iran, reported on April 19, 2021, that “Saudi Arabia and Iran have opened a strategic dialogue on all issues related to them, which may lead to a major change in the region, especially with regard to the Lebanese and Yemeni front.”

“The main mediator between Tehran and Riyadh is Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, who is acceptable to both sides,” Ben-Menachem said.

“The dilemma of the Saudi guardian appears for several reasons. Bin Salman is not acceptable to the Biden administration, which accuses him of being responsible for the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and a systematic violation of human rights in Saudi Arabia,” Ben-Menachem believes.

Bin Salman was also involved in the case of the conspiracy against Jordan's King Abdullah, and his two companions, Bassem Awadallah and Sharif Hassan bin Zaid, were sentenced to a long prison term in Jordan after they were accused of attempting to plot with Prince Hamzah a coup against the Hashemite regime.

“Saudi Arabia's war against the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen is getting more complicated, as it has been going on for more than 6 years without a decision, with a clear distinction of the Houthi militia,” the security analyst stressed.

“The war has become an internal and daily nightmare in Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis attack daily with ballistic missiles and detain drones inside civilian targets inside Saudi Arabia, including the capital Riyadh and Aramco's oil facilities,” he considered.

“The Vienna nuclear talks, in which Saudi Arabia found itself outside the talks of the representatives of the powers with the representatives of Iran, Biden does not take into account the Kingdom's position and returns to the nuclear agreement with Iran,” Ben-Menachem pointed out.

“Bin Salman fears a move to public normalization with Israel, although Israel and Saudi Arabia are on the same side of the barrier. He fears internal turmoil in the kingdom, amid his political and military failures and the possibility that the Biden administration will try to prevent him from becoming the next king of Saudi Arabia,” he continued.

 

Impasse

“In parallel with Saudi Arabia's secret negotiations with Iran, the Saudi crown prince is preparing his country for the possibility of a war with Iran or a regional war in the Middle East,” Ben-Menachem indicated.

“Saudi Arabia fears a dead end in the nuclear talks, and the failure of the talks may accelerate the end of the option of Israel attacking the nuclear facilities in Iran. Tehran has previously announced that in such a situation it will respond immediately by attacking US bases in the Gulf states and attacking any state linked to Israel and has helped it openly and covertly,” he stressed.

On its part, CNN reported on December 23, 2021 that “the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) knows that Saudi Arabia is actively working on ballistic missiles with the help of China.”

“Riyadh previously bought ballistic missiles from Beijing, but it failed to build its own missiles. The Biden administration fears that the Saudi move will complicate its efforts to expand the 2015 nuclear deal into a larger deal that also includes Iran's ballistic missile project and constrains the regional balance of power,” CNN added.

“Iran is likely to stick to Saudi production of ballistic missiles to oppose any attempt to impose restrictions on its ballistic missile project,” Ben-Menahem believes.

“Arab commentators claim that senior government officials are behind the publication of the CNN report to pressure Bin Salman to stop producing his ballistic missiles with the help of China. They say that Bin Salman was prepared for the worst scenario to protect his country from Iran, but his country remains silent and does not comment on the publications of the American network,” he continued.

“Biden is angry at the Saudi move, and is preparing to impose sanctions on China. The United States also fears an increase in the arms race in the Middle East, and the Biden administration is reluctant to impose sanctions on Saudi Arabia, the strategic partner of the United States in the Middle East,” according to the Wall Street Journal.

It should be noted that the US administration has long refused to sell ballistic missiles to Saudi Arabia.

Security analyst Ben-Menachem concluded his article by saying: “Bin Salman is concerned about Biden's policy toward Iran, especially since he saw how the United States withdrew from Afghanistan. The Gulf states fear that the United States is no longer ready to play a decisive role in the region and may be left alone in the face of the Iranian threat.”

“Bin Salman has not forgotten how the administration of US President Donald Trump did nothing when Iran attacked with ballistic missiles and precision drones, through the Houthi militias in 2019, Aramco’s oil facilities; therefore, the Saudis will not compromise their security interests,” he said.