How the CHP Crisis Is Impacting the Turkish Political Landscape

The Turkish political scene is witnessing developments that could reshape the party life, not only within the Republican People's Party (CHP), but also at the national level.

Attention has been focused in recent days on the 42nd Civil Court of First Instance in Ankara, where a crucial ruling was expected on September 15 that could determine the future of Turkiye's largest opposition party, but which was postponed.

As part of corruption investigations, Turkiye has arrested more than 500 people in municipalities run by the CHP, including 17 mayors in Istanbul and other provinces.

Hundreds of CHP members have been imprisoned pending trial in a wide-ranging investigation into allegations of corruption, links to terrorism, and violations of the country's political parties law, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.

The cases against the CHP currently before the courts were not initiated by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).  

The accusations, witnesses, and evidence all originated from within the CHP itself, seemingly as an internal power struggle to sideline one faction and elevate another.

Political Battle

In a significant political and legal move, the CHP held an extraordinary congress in the capital, Ankara, on September 21, and re-elected Ozgur Ozel as its leader.

This was a preemptive measure against the possibility that a court might overturn the results of the CHP's 38th congress in 2023, where Ozel unseated Kemal Kilicdaroglu, potentially paving the way for the imposition of a trusteeship on the party.

Ozel's re-election is seen as a challenge to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the heated political battle that has gripped the Turkish public. 

Party insiders presented the extraordinary congress as proof of legitimacy, but critics argue it is merely an attempt to cover up deep divisions.

The CHP recently stated that 917 members voted at the party congress held on September 21, and that 835 votes were valid, all of which went to Ozel.

The court rejected the prosecutor's requests to suspend Ozel and his administration from office for the time being.

It is scheduled to issue a ruling on October 24 regarding whether it will annul the results of the 2023 congress, a move that could lead to the party's restructuring and affect the upcoming 2028 elections.

For the CHP, which has spent months reeling from corruption scandals and a power struggle, the court’s decision provided a temporary relief. But the risk of judicial intervention and the possibility of the party’s leadership being overturned, remains very much alive.

Party figures complained that the trial was political and should have been rejected outright. 

The extraordinary congress was held after a lawsuit was filed by former Hatay Mayor Lutfu Savas and others to annul the results of the 2023 congress, alleging procedural irregularities such as vote-buying.

The case includes Kilicdaroglu as the victim and the currently imprisoned Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu as a suspect. 

Kilicdaroglu's team claimed that the 38th CHP congress was marred by corruption, while Imamoglu's team asserted that the entire process was conducted in accordance with the party statutes.

Catastrophic Scenarios

In his article in the Hurriyet newspaper, Turkish writer Abdulkadir Selvi stated that what is happening within the CHP is not purely an internal matter, and cannot be viewed in isolation from the broader Turkish political landscape, given its wide-ranging implications for the country's stability.

He noted that on October 24, the court could still declare absolute nullity, invalidate Ozel’s chairpersonship and either restore Kilicdaroglu’s team or install a convocation committee tasked with taking the party to a new congress within 45 days.

He indicated that the coming period will witness intense competition and rivalry between different factions within the party for the leadership of the opposition.

Kilicdaroglu previously stated that he is still capable of leading the party, which he led for 13 years, and emphasized that he would not refuse the position if offered.

Some within the party fear that if reinstated, Kilicdaroglu could delay fresh congresses and remain in office until 2026, prolonging uncertainty and possibly splitting the party.

CHP officials loyal to Ozel accuse pro-Kilicdaroglu factions of undermining party unity. 

For Imamoglu, Kilicdaroglu's return represents a nightmare scenario that threatens his political ambitions. 

Ozgur Ozel sent a strong message of defiance during the party's large rally in Tandogan Square in Ankara on September 14, stating: “The CHP is not a mere political opportunist party; it is a party rooted in history and national struggle.”

Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas delivered an opening speech that was warmly received by the attendees, particularly given the circulating, but unconfirmed, rumors about his potential resignation; his appearance served as a practical rebuttal to those claims.

The most enthusiastic moment came when Ozel explicitly announced that the CHP's presidential candidate would be Ekrem Imamoglu.

He also called for early elections, issuing a direct challenge to President Erdogan, saying: “Bring the ballot boxes on November 2... Let's go to the polls.”

In a message sent from prison, Imamoglu said that Erdogan's government was trying to pre-determine the outcome of the upcoming elections by eliminating legitimate political opponents.

He also accused the government of undermining democracy through politically motivated prosecutions and other measures.

With the anticipated court decision pending on October 24, the scene appeared to be a dress rehearsal for a larger political battle that will determine the party's future and perhaps the trajectory of Turkish politics in the coming period.

Potential Ban

On September 2, the Istanbul Civil Court of First Instance removed the Istanbul branch leadership of the CHP and appointed a trustee, citing allegations of bribery of delegates to influence their votes.

The court ruling stipulated the removal of the current Istanbul CHP branch head, Ozgur Celik, and the appointment of Gursel Tekin as the new head of the Istanbul branch.

For his part, CHP leader Ozel rejected any court decision to dismiss the head of the party's Istanbul branch.

He categorically opposed appointing any replacement or forming any interim committee to take over the leadership of the branch in place of Celik and his colleagues.

He also announced the expulsion of Tekin from the CHP, arguing that he was not qualified for the position.

Tekin is part of Kilicdaroglu’s team, and his appointment as head of the Istanbul branch would not be acceptable to Ozel’s team. 

The CHP's Istanbul branch is known to be a strong supporter of Imamoglu, but its new leader, Tekin, may reorganize it in a way that does not suit Imamoglu, who has been in prison since March.

It is worth noting that Imamoglu is now one step away from a potential political ban, which would prevent him from running for office or holding public positions.

The Istanbul Court of Appeals upheld Imamoglu's two-year, seven-month, and 15-day prison sentence in a case in which he was convicted of insulting members of the Supreme Election Council.

However, his lawyers appealed the Court of Appeals' decision to the Court of Cassation, which has not yet issued its ruling.

In related news, the CHP has recently been experiencing a steady exodus of members, with resignations occurring almost daily.

The most prominent defector was Aydın Mayor Ozlem Cercioglu, who left the CHP last month to join the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Istanbul also recently saw the acting mayor of Beykoz, Ozlem Vural Gurzel, join the ruling party.

For his part, Erdogan welcomed the fact that several opposition members had joined his party, considering it an indication of the disillusionment within the CHP.

However, critics point out that these defections often occur under the pressure of legal cases or in exchange for promises of government financial support. 

Real Test

The CHP has faced increasing political and legal pressure since Ozel was elected as its leader, succeeding Kilicdaroglu, who led the party for a long time without achieving significant success.

However, Ozel's arrival at the helm of the party brought a political surprise, as the CHP achieved significant results in the 2024 local elections, winning most of the mayoral positions in major cities, including Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir.

But these gains were subsequently undermined by a wave of arrests targeting several mayors and other officials on corruption and embezzlement charges.

For his part, Erdogan, whose ruling AKP has dominated Turkish politics for over two decades, has repeatedly attacked the CHP in light of these accusations.

He described the CHP network as corrupt, comparing it with an octopus whose arms stretch to other parts of Turkiye and abroad.

Turkish officials have repeatedly underlined that the judiciary in Turkiye acts independently, with courts free to rule based on legal procedures rather than political pressure.

CHP and its critics maintain that these politically motivated actions are part of a growing authoritarian system seeking to silence any form of opposition.

Human rights organizations and European leaders view this campaign as a blow to the principles of pluralism and democracy. 

Political analyst Mahmoud Aloush explained to Al-Estiklal that the current crises facing the CHP reflect a growing trend of legal and political pressure, which represents a real test of the principle of separation of powers in Turkiye.

“The divisions within the CHP itself, between the supporters of Ozel and Kilicdaroglu, are exacerbating polarization and pushing the political conflict between the ruling party and the opposition to unprecedented levels,” he said.

He concluded that regardless of the final verdict, the repercussions of this crisis will continue to shape the future of politics and the economy in the country for years to come.