Hebrew Forum: Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to More Future Frictions

An Israeli forum has monitored the impact of successive geopolitical factors in recent years in the Middle East, one of the world's tensest regions, on the relations of the two most important Arab Gulf states, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The Hebrew Regional Thought Forum said that due to political, economic, geographical and cultural factors, the two countries have become a single political entity, but that there has finally been a bad blood flow between them against the backdrop of changes in oil policy.

The forum stressed that the crisis between allies Riyadh and Abu Dhabi seems deeper than the issue of oil, asking what lies behind the tensions between the two countries, and the extent to which it is linked to Israel.

 

The Two Mohammeds

The forum noted that in their geopolitical discourse in recent years, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have become an undistingerable mix, in the interests of both sides and their alliance in the Yemen war, which requires their agreement to weaken Iran.

"Also because of the partnership in leading the direction of normalizing relations between Arab countries and Israel, or for other reasons," the forum added.

"The warm relations between the two major oil economies in the Arabian Gulf seem quite normal with their ambitious leaders," he said.

He described Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed as "the powerful men in the Middle East."

"Deep cooperation between the two countries has become more influential on the map of the region," the Hebrew Forum said, adding: "But it seems that corrupt blood is flowing between the two countries."

In early August 2021, the UAE vetoed a joint proposal by Russia and Saudi Arabia to increase oil production among OPEC countries, it said.

"The UAE has backed away from its position, but Saudi Arabia has in return cancelled a series of customs exemptions granted to Abu Dhabi for export to Riyadh, including goods manufactured in Israel," he said.

"Due to the Corona epidemic, the UAE has been added to the list of countries banned from entering Saudi Arabia, and Abu Dhabi has responded by placing the Saudis on the same list with Ethiopia, Vietnam and Bangladesh."

"The Saudis have been banned from entering the UAE and scheduled flights to and from Emirates have been cancelled to Saudi Arabia," the forum said, commenting: "The two countries appear to be on a collision course."

 

Ugly Divorce

The Hebrew Forum asked: "While the crown princes refuse to have a conversation about their relationships, where it’s heading, the question arises: what lies behind the crisis between the two countries?"

"What interests brought them closer in the first place, and what interests are they now separating them? How the conflict mediated finally manifested itself on the policies of the two countries," according to the forum.

"How does their conflict fit with the map of the broader regional alliance? Where is Israel in the whole story?"

The forum drew attention to a series of articles in the Arab press that answer these questions, by Amjad Ahmed Jibril, Mustafa Abdeslam, Arib Al-Rantawi and Ishaq al-Masawi.

"It is clear from the opinions of writers, media professionals and policy experts from the Arab world that this is just the tip of the iceberg, and the honeymoon between Saudi Arabia and the UAE may have been ruined, and it will soon turn into an ugly divorce," he said.

"The warm relations between the two countries and the partnership in the leadership of the Gulf states that characterized the second decade of the 21st century is exceptional," the Hebrew Forum noted.

"In 1971, the seven small emirates that Britain protected and formed gained independence and united to form the United Arab Emirates, at a time when Saudi Arabia had decades of seniority as a dominant Arab power."

"In those years, the relationship between the two countries was ambiguous because of the border dispute that ended in 1974 with the Jeddah Agreement, and for several decades relations between the neighbors continued to be calm," he said.

"It sometimes turned into confrontations, and in 1999 when they demanded in Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia, to stop its diplomatic efforts against Iran, then Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz replied: Emiratis, themselves semi-Iranians."

"At the beginning of the 21st century, leaked documents quoted the heir to the emirate as telling a U.S. official: "Saudi leaders are a group of impatient seniors, and Saudis are waiting for America to overthrow the royal family system."

 

Two Identical Poles

"In 2010, there was an exchange of fire between military forces from the two countries in the same border area," said Iti Malach, a political analyst at the Hebrew Forum.

"Saudi Arabia did not like the UAE, the latter did not like the first, and there was no hint that the situation would change from end to end," he claimed.

"But in 2011, each country faced a common enemy several times more dangerous than the other, the Arab Spring, as decade-old dictatorial powers collapsed throughout the Arab world."

"In Saudi Arabia and the UAE, all authoritarian regimes were not even trying to pretend that their citizens had political rights, and they were afraid of civil lawsuits, and in particular the two countries feared a revolution like Egypt and Tunisia."

"The Arab Spring brought a democratic system to power by the Muslim Brotherhood, prompting Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to declare a war of attrition against the group and its supporters Turkey and Qatar, culminating in 2017 in Doha province," according to an Israeli analyst. 

"Looking ahead, the writers on which the lines above are based believe that the downward trend in relations between the two countries is likely to continue," he said.

"The UAE says it is a small country that has forgotten its place and will abandon its great claims as they expect, and will understand that its vast wealth cannot buy anything, and that Israel is a broken rod."

Arab writers expect the UAE to leave "the Gulf leadership to those who deserve it and most likely Saudi Arabia," he said.

"The UAE will not give up so quickly, its strength has been growing steadily since its inception, and it still has unfulfilling options inside and outside the Saudi Royal House," he said.

"In Riyadh, Bin Salman may think it's time for Saudi Arabia to return to its strength, but in the years following the creation of Abu Dhabi, Bin Zayed claimed to be equally strong," the Israeli analyst said.

"The tension between the two countries is a prelude to future frictions," Malach said.

"The Mohammeds are similar in their characters, aspirations, adventurous nature and lust for power, and as identical magnets, they cannot live in harmony with each other," he said.