His 'Favorite Dictator': Could Trump’s Victory Be a Lifeline for Sisi’s Regime?

At a critical juncture for Egypt, as the Egyptian regime faces renewed economic challenges—including dwindling Suez Canal revenues, a covert devaluation of the Egyptian pound under IMF pressure, and an acute dollar shortage—Donald Trump has won the U.S. presidency.

During Trump’s first term (2016-2020), he shielded Sisi from the Obama administration’s criticisms following Egypt’s 2013 military coup. With Trump’s return to office, Sisi became one of the first Arab “leaders” to congratulate him, a gesture met with enthusiasm by Egyptian state media.

Egypt’s pro-government media celebrated Trump’s victory as a win for Sisi, often referred to by the Egyptian people as “Trump’s favorite dictator,” implying that Trump’s return to power could bring renewed support for Sisi’s regime, as seen in Trump’s prior term.

However, Egyptian journalists and political observers caution that Trump’s second term might not be as supportive. Economic realities may compel Trump to adopt a different stance, potentially pressuring Sisi or withholding support altogether.

Unlike before, Sisi’s main challenge won’t center on “human rights” but on the economic relief he urgently needs in the form of grants, loans, and foreign aid—resources Trump is unlikely to offer freely. Trump, who approaches the presidency as a “money collector,” is known for pressuring allies to pay for U.S. protection and services.

An Empty Gesture?

Shortly after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the head of the Egyptian regime Abdel Fattah el-Sisi quickly extended his congratulations to Donald Trump, posting on the presidential page his eagerness to “strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries.” Sisi pointed to the “model of cooperation and success” during Trump’s first term as an example of how shared interests between Egypt and the U.S. had been effectively advanced.

Sisi didn’t stop at a mere online congratulatory message; he quickly followed up with a phone call to Trump, emphasizing the “exceptional cooperation between the two sides” that marked Trump’s first term—a clear signal of Sisi’s hope for similar support in Trump’s new presidency.

Before Trump’s victory, Sisi had already reached out by phone on July 23, 2024, after the assassination attempt on Trump, to check on his health—a gesture that Trump publicly appreciated, thanking Sisi for his “thoughtful act,” according to the Egyptian presidency.

Sisi’s quick congratulations following Trump’s win, along with the celebratory coverage from Egyptian state media, revived memories of the scandal reported by The Washington Post on August 2, 2024, which alleged that Sisi helped fund Trump’s 2016 campaign. This raised questions in Egyptian and American circles about whether Sisi may have also contributed to Trump’s second presidential campaign, given the potential benefits for his regime.

On August 2, 2024, The Independent raised similar suspicions: “Did a potential $10 million cash payment from Egypt’s authoritarian ruler, ‘President’ Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, have anything to do with Donald Trump’s affection for him?”

Then, on September 3, 2024, Representatives Jamie Raskin, a member of the Oversight and Accountability Committee, and Robert Garcia, from the Subcommittee on National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs, formally demanded answers from Trump regarding The Washington Post report.

In their letter, they cited new evidence suggesting Trump may have illegally accepted $10 million from Sisi’s government to support his campaign, with the Department of Justice allegedly covering it up—prompting them to call for a full investigation. They accused Trump of radically shifting U.S. policy in Sisi’s favor, citing his praise for the “dictator” and his decision to release previously withheld military aid, despite Egypt’s human rights violations, shortly after receiving Sisi’s campaign support.

Media Hype

Pro-Sisi media has portrayed Trump’s potential second presidential win as a lifeline for Egypt’s “favorite dictator,” suggesting it would relieve Sisi from the Democrats’ pressure on human rights issues since Biden assumed office in 2020.

They criticized the Biden administration for withholding parts of the military aid to Egypt over human rights abuses, hinting that Republicans, especially Trump, are less concerned with such matters. This stance was echoed across pro-government channels, celebrating Trump’s success while condemning Biden’s approach, painting Trump’s return as a reprise of the support he extended during his first term, when he shielded Sisi from the Obama administration’s censure following Egypt’s 2013 coup.

Ahmed Moussa, a pro-regime broadcaster, went so far as to label Trump’s victory a “defeat for the Muslim Brotherhood,” claiming the group had backed Harris. Meanwhile, the regime-aligned broadcaster Amr Adib hailed Trump’s victory, declaring, “America needed a strong man.”

Former Assistant Foreign Minister Ambassador Hussein Haridy noted this too, he framed Trump’s victory as marking “the end of the Obama era in American policy.”

Haridy’s remarks referred to a period starting with Obama’s presidency in 2009 and extending through Biden’s administration, alluding to the strained relationship between Obama-Biden policies and the Egyptian regime, particularly over human rights concerns.

Haridy told Asharq al-Awsat that Trump’s win would restore “the special relationship between Egypt’s leadership and the White House.” 

He said during Trump’s previous term, Sisi was welcomed to the White House twice, in 2017 and 2019, but under Biden, Sisi only met him on the sidelines of international events in 2022.

“Biden never invited Sisi to the White House throughout his four-year term; a strange situation in bilateral relations [..] but this will be corrected under Trump’s term.”

Under the Biden administration, portions of aid to the Egyptian regime were withheld or reduced nearly every year, contingent upon Egypt’s progress on human rights. Some of these funds were redirected to other countries, such as Taiwan.

In Biden’s final year in office, Egypt received its full aid package again, with U.S. officials prioritizing “national security interests” over human rights issues due to “Egypt’s role in Gaza.” The State Department defended the decision, highlighting “Egypt’s contributions to regional stability, including its efforts in brokering a Gaza ceasefire.”

On September 11, 2024, the Biden administration announced that it would exempt Egypt from human rights conditions, releasing the full $1.3 billion in military aid to Sisi’s regime.

Dollars, Not Rights

Contrary to the pro-Sisi media narrative that Trump’s return will free Sisi from human rights pressure, some Egyptian journalists and politicians believe that Sisi’s real challenge during Trump’s second term won’t be rights but finances. Trump’s focus on financial matters may complicate Sisi’s position.

“Sisi’s current crisis is money, and Trump’s primary drive is also money,” Journalist Gamal Sultan said on X.

Both leaders, he argued, are strapped for cash, and Trump’s administration might even reduce foreign aid, including support for Sisi, as part of broader spending cuts.

Following Trump’s victory, Egyptian politicians and economists have voiced optimism about a renewed U.S.-Egypt partnership, with hopes that his administration will encourage American companies to increase their investments in Egypt, facilitate Egypt’s IMF loan, and ensure the regular disbursement of annual aid without conditions, CNN has learned.

Yet, international economic reports predict looming challenges for Egypt as revenue from asset sales dwindles and debt interest payments mount.

Beyond the considerable funding gap Egypt is expected to face, the Central Bank of Egypt projected on December 13, 2023, that total debt payments, including interest, will reach approximately $42.3 billion in 2024. Over the past decade, Egypt’s external debt has more than doubled, with total debt reaching around $165.4 billion by the end of Q1 2024.

In vague remarks hinting at an unofficial devaluation, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly stated on November 6, 2024, that there would be no full flotation of the pound, but instead a shift based on supply and demand—indicating that the currency may see both upward and downward movements.

Social media users poked fun at Trump’s victory and Sisi’s enthusiastic response, joking that “America has returned to its old flame.” Many highlighted the irony of Sisi remaining in power through the terms of three U.S. presidents and potentially outlasting Trump as well.

Humiliating Dependence

Western media estimates suggest that Trump’s relationship with the head of the Egyptian regime Abdel Fattah el-Sisi will remain one of dependency, much like during Trump’s first term, but likely deepening as Sisi seeks U.S. support to sustain his regime. In return, Sisi is expected to align with Trump’s agenda in strategic deals, like the “Deal of the Century.”

During his initial visit to Trump’s White House, Sisi was the first to reveal the framework of the “Deal of the Century,” expressing his readiness to take part. Analysts now believe Trump may use Sisi’s influence to promote further normalization agreements with Arab states. Trump could also pressure Sisi to allow the Israeli army a permanent presence in the Philadelphi Corridor, potentially breaching the 1979 peace agreement.

Despite Sisi’s poor human rights record, Trump has voiced strong support for the Egyptian dictator since taking office in 2017. 

“We understood each other very well.  He’s a very tough man, I will tell you that.  But he’s also a good man, and he’s done a fantastic job in Egypt.  Not easy,” he said in September 2029, referring to the Egyptian regime. 

During his first term, when questioned about Sisi's plans to extend his rule until 2034, Trump suggested approval, stating he wasn't familiar with the details but reaffirmed that Sisi was “doing a great job.”

On August 27, 2019, Trump praised Sisi’s leadership, describing him as “a very tough man” who had done a “fantastic job” in Egypt. However, Trump has also made disparaging comments, calling Sisi “a dictator” and, in private, allegedly referring to him as a crazy killer.

During a September 2019 G7 summit in France, while waiting for Sisi’s arrival, Trump called out, “Where's my favorite dictator?” His voice was loud enough for a small group of American and Egyptian officials to hear. Several people present at the time confirmed they heard the remark.

A year later, Trump reportedly mocked Sisi once again. In his book Fear: Trump in the White House, journalist Bob Woodward recounted an instance where Trump compared speaking with Sisi to “a kick in the nuts.” He added, “This guy’s a killer! I’m getting it done. He'll make you sweat on the phone.”

Trump recounted to his lawyer, John Dowd, that Sisi was apprehensive about Trump being around to continue supporting him, saying, “Donald, I’m worried about this [Mueller] investigation. Are you going to be around? Suppose I need a favor, Donald?”

Sisi asked whether Trump would stay in power through the 2020 election, seeking assurance for ongoing support and “potential corrupt deals.”

That’s why, according to Woodward, Trump called Sisi’s comments, which were apparently in reference to Robert Mueller’s investigation into alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 elections, a “kick in the nuts.”

Throughout his presidency, Trump repeatedly endorsed Sisi, ignoring documented abuses against Egypt's opposition and activists. He disregarded reports from the U.S. State Department, Human Rights Watch, and other organizations on Egypt’s deteriorating human rights conditions.

Sherif Azer, an Egyptian human rights activist and a PhD researcher of international law at the University of York, said while Sisi managed to retain U.S. aid under Biden despite a worsening rights record, under Trump, Sisi’s regime would likely find it even easier to evade any obligations related to human rights.

“Trump is no different from his soon-to-be predecessor, Biden,” he told The New Arab (TNA).

“Egypt has already established strong ties with the U.S. since entering into a peace treaty with Israel in the late 1970s during the era of late President Anwar Sadat. No Egyptian or American president will change that.”

“But under Trump, Egypt can more easily evade any commitments that have to do with human rights and even avoid verbal reprimanding,” Azer added.

Diverging Priorities 

One reason analysts expect Trump may not significantly benefit Sisi’s regime this time is the shift in the latter’s priorities from Trump’s first term to his upcoming second, starting January 20, 2024.

During Trump’s initial presidency, Sisi was consolidating power after the 2013 coup, focusing on stabilizing his regime and dismantling any remnants of the Muslim Brotherhood. At that time, Sisi relied on Trump's cover to suppress domestic dissent and justify human rights abuses, encapsulated by Trump’s infamous “my favorite dictator” remark, according to Western analysts.

Now, however, Egypt’s challenges extend beyond internal issues, including crises like the potential impact of Gaza's destruction on the Egyptian economy, with projected losses of $6 billion in Suez Canal revenue. Regional concerns, such as the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s threat to Egypt's water security, also pose critical risks.

In his memoir At War with Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House, published in August 2024, Trump’s former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster recalls Egypt’s waning regional influence, supplanted by Gulf nations, which he attributes to Cairo's internal focus following the 2013 coup and tensions with the Obama administration.

McMaster describes how, in early meetings, Egyptian officials primarily lobbied for U.S. backing in their fight against the Muslim Brotherhood, sidelining other key security concerns like the Ethiopian dam and Libya’s conflict. 

Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, for instance, urged Trump to confront the Brotherhood and its allies in Turkiye and Qatar. This focus underscored Sisi’s priority of strengthening his domestic power over addressing national security threats.

McMaster also recounts how Sisi’s administration, along with allies in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, pressed Trump to designate the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization. 

However, the State Department resisted, citing concerns that such a move could radicalize less extreme factions and drive the group underground, potentially heightening the threat. The administration also conditioned improved U.S.-Egypt relations on releasing detained American citizens, such as Aya Hijazi, who was freed in April 2017 and welcomed by Trump at the White House.

Trump’s support for Sisi was clear as early as his July 2016 speech at the Republican National Convention, where he defended the 2013 coup, saying, “Egypt was handed over to the radicals of the Muslim Brotherhood, which forced the army to retake power.”

Renaissance Dam

One area where Trump’s return could aid Sisi involves the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. With Ethiopia’s dam now complete and filled, challenging Egypt’s annual water share, Cairo has sought strategic alliances, including a defense pact with Somalia, as part of efforts to counter Addis Ababa.

Somali leaders are reportedly hopeful that Trump’s comeback may pressure Ethiopia to reconsider its stance on the dam, marking a rare issue where Trump’s involvement might directly serve Egypt’s interests.

In a striking moment on October 23, 2020, then-President Donald Trump publicly questioned Sisi's hesitance on Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam, saying, “They should have stopped it long before it was started.” From the Oval Office, Trump implied that Egypt might resort to blowing up the dam.

“They [Egypt] will end up blowing up the dam,” Trump said. “And I said it and I say it loud and clear [..] they’ll blow up that dam. And they have to do something.”

Trump’s comments, made during a White House announcement on a peace deal between “Israel” and Sudan, cast Sisi as reluctant to act, despite what appeared to be an informal green light from Washington. 

Egyptian analysts interpreted Trump’s statements as tacit approval for Egypt to consider military intervention if necessary. Mohamed Nasr Eldin Allam, Egypt’s former minister of water resources, took to Facebook, describing Trump’s words as a “green light” for Egypt to confront Ethiopia militarily over the dam.

Now, as Trump seeks a potential return to the White House, Egyptian politicians express hope that a new Trump administration might support Egypt in finding a solution to the dam crisis. Citing Trump’s previous remarks, some believe Cairo could seize the opportunity to press Washington for backing in negotiations with Ethiopia.

Washington had hosted multiple rounds of talks in 2019 and 2020, with Egypt, Ethiopia, and the World Bank at the table. However, negotiations stalled without an agreement, leading Trump to criticize Addis Ababa openly. With Trump’s possible return, Cairo may be looking to rekindle U.S. involvement, banking on the former president’s willingness to challenge Ethiopia if diplomatic efforts fail.