Europe’s Renewed Focus on Libya: Genuine Push for Stability or Strategic Power Play?

Italy continues to lead the European front on managing the Libyan situation, viewing Libya’s challenges as fundamentally a European problem. 

This stance has sparked questions about the underlying motivations behind such intense interest and the role Russia plays in the unfolding crisis.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani made clear that the domestic situation in Libya is a European problem, underscoring Italy’s commitment to shaping the region’s future.

Tajani emphasized that Italy is helping the European Union focus on Libya’s internal situation, particularly in the wake of clashes that erupted in the capital, Tripoli, in May 2025.

In a statement released by the Italian Foreign Ministry on June 23, 2025, Tajani explained that this Italian initiative aims to enable the EU to manage the Libyan situation in a unified manner, recognizing it as a European problem.

Pivotal Country

Tajani outlined three main objectives driving Italy’s approach to Libya: issuing a renewed warning to mobilize European states, calling for stronger support to enforce a ceasefire, and prompting new EU efforts to revive the political process under UN auspices, alongside confronting Russia’s growing influence.

At Italy’s request, joined by France, Greece, and Malta, the EU Foreign Affairs Council convened on June 23 to address the emergency in Libya and the repercussions of the crisis on escalating irregular migration flows across the central Mediterranean route.

The European meeting coincided with a fragile ceasefire and widespread concerns over a potential resurgence of clashes in Tripoli between forces loyal to the interim Government of National Unity and rival armed groups.

The government has described the unrest as part of a broader plan to dismantle militias.

Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni stressed that neither Italy nor the EU can afford to ignore Libya, especially in the wake of recent violent confrontations in the capital.

Speaking in parliament on June 23, Meloni warned that the situation in Libya has direct implications for the security of the European Union, adding that “Italy remains the country most exposed to the risks and potential threats” arising from the ongoing instability.

She described the situation on the ground as “extremely fragile and unpredictable,” affirming Italy’s full support for efforts to strengthen the ceasefire through dialogue.

“But we also believe the European Union must exert all its influence to ensure the parties continue to respect the truce unconditionally, and to make every possible effort to prevent further civilian casualties or damage to infrastructure,” she added.

At the same time, Meloni stressed, “We must work to relaunch the political process that will guide Libya towards a more stable political and institutional framework.”

According to the Italian Prime Minister, “The European Union must use its influence and leverage to pressure Libya’s main parties to cooperate with the United Nations without preconditions.”

“It is essential for Europe to support the UN’s mediation efforts in a cohesive and genuine manner, overcoming divisions among member states that, in the past, acted more as antagonists than as partners.”

“The stability of Libya and its neighboring countries is crucial to containing irregular migration flows and combating illicit trafficking across the central Mediterranean.”

“I would also note that eastern and southern Libya already represent a spearhead for Russian military expansion in Africa. There is a real danger that Russia will exploit the current instability to deepen its presence in Libya, and by extension, in the Mediterranean,” she added.

Past Glory 

In his analysis of these European moves, Libyan political analyst Ibrahim al-Asaifir said, “The situation in Libya is a significant source of concern for Europe and its member states, especially given Russia’s deepening involvement and Turkiye’s presence in this geopolitically vital region for Europe.”

“The Libyan crisis and the international entanglement have surpassed the influence and control of EU countries, even those with permanent seats on the UN Security Council, such as France, whose role has largely been limited to issuing statements,” the Libyan political analyst told Al-Estiklal.

“The balance of power in Libya has shifted dramatically, and Europe no longer has the capacity to impose a reality other than what exists on the ground — a reality Europe rejects and merely voices opposition to through official statements.”

“Even the EU’s naval operation, IRINI, which is meant to inspect vessels to prevent the smuggling of weapons, has spectacularly failed to achieve its objectives,” he added.

Operation IRINI is a European Union naval mission aimed at “enforcing the  UN arms embargo on Libya” and implementing relevant UN Security Council resolutions.

Launched on March 31, 2020, the operation employs air and naval assets as well as satellite surveillance to monitor maritime activity in the region.

“The actors shaping the dynamics in Libya are the influential powers with ground forces — primarily Russia and Turkiye — not Europe,” the Libyan political analyst added.

“No European country can deploy air, naval, or ground forces to change the political game in Libya; such capabilities belong to the past. Italy and France are now more like Greece, nostalgically celebrating past glories and former influence.”

“The EU states are economically exhausted, which prevents them from engaging in costly military adventures, even though the Libyan issue deeply concerns them — whether due to irregular migration, control over Mediterranean waters, the region’s natural resources, or gas and energy,” he noted.

“EU countries are trying to rally and build a European and international consensus to advance a specific political process or push for a Security Council resolution that serves their perspective on these issues.” 

“On the ground, we see that the pivotal positions shaping Libya’s near and medium-term future are beyond Europe’s influence — European states lack the tools to exert meaningful impact or bring about significant change,” he concluded.

Europe’s Strategic Alternatives

Responding to a question on whether Europe genuinely seeks stability in Libya — or whether a state of “manageable chaos” better serves its interests — Russian researcher Dmitry Brezhnev said that while the answer may be uncomfortable for Western elites, many major European powers continue to treat Libya as a “gray zone.”

Brezhnev told Al-Estiklal that “political fragmentation allows for pressure to be applied on local actors and enables events to be steered in line with short-term European interests, without requiring serious commitments to state-building.”

“The current situation — with western Libya aligned with certain European capitals and the east under a different sphere of influence — provides room for maneuver and influence, without the burden of engaging with a single sovereign authority,” the director of the Russian Studies Unit at the Arab-Eurasian Research Center, Dmitry Brezhnev said.

“This has allowed, for instance, France to engage with the Libyan National Army in the east, while Italy maintains dialogue with the Tripoli-based government, and the European Union offers technical support on migration — all without taking decisive steps on issues of sovereignty or institutional reconstruction.”

Brezhnev emphasized that Russia’s role becomes threatening not because it endangers any real ‘stability’ — which, he noted, has been absent since 2011 — but because it disrupts Europe’s ability to benefit from the existing chaos.

Brezhnev noted that Russia’s presence could pave the way for the emergence of a relatively stable political–military bloc in eastern or central Libya — a development that could bolster the so-called “Russian solution” to the Libyan crisis: negotiation from a position of strength, through local proxies and bilateral security arrangements, bypassing the international frameworks traditionally shaped by Europe.

The result, according to the Russian analyst, is that “Europe now faces a complex reality — unable to expel Russia from Libya, unwilling to confront it directly, and lacking genuine interest in supporting a unified national Libyan project that might ultimately sideline European influence.”

Brezhnev noted that Europe’s concern is not merely with Russia’s presence in Libya as a temporary security issue, but with the prospect of Libya becoming a permanent base for a broader Russian project in the Mediterranean and Africa — one that offers an alternative model to the West in governance, alliances, and economics.

He argued that Europe sees this not just as a geopolitical challenge, but as an existential threat to its sphere of influence and its traditional approach to crisis management and control over its southern neighborhood.

“If Europe fails to act, its loss in Libya will go beyond geopolitics — it will be a strategic defeat in the looming struggle for influence across the Mediterranean and the entire gateway to North Africa,” Brezhnev concluded.

Global Actions

Italy and the European Union are not the only actors engaged on the Libyan front. 

A high-level meeting of the International Follow-up Committee on Libya was recently held in Berlin, aimed at supporting a Libyan-led and Libyan-owned political process.

According to a statement published on the United Nations website on June 20, 2025, participating states and international and regional organizations reaffirmed their commitment to the UN-facilitated political process in Libya and reiterated their respect for relevant UN Security Council resolutions.

They also restated their full respect for Libya’s sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity, and national unity — underlining their continued determination to support the country and its people.

Participants also reaffirmed their commitment to non-interference in Libya’s internal affairs, urging all international stakeholders to adopt the same approach.

The meeting raised concerns over mounting threats to Libya’s stability and unity, citing the ongoing crisis of institutional legitimacy, fragmented governance structures, and the rapid deterioration of the country’s economic and financial situation.

All parties were called upon to “refrain from unilateral actions that could deepen divisions,” with a clear reminder that those obstructing the political process would be held accountable — including under relevant UN Security Council resolutions.

Andrea Cellino, Deputy Chair of the Middle East Institute in Switzerland and Executive-in-Residence at the Geneva Center for Security Policy, argues that “Europe is called upon not only to stabilize Libya, but to strategically support the UN-led process in a country at serious risk of collapse.”

Writing in the Italian outlet Affari Internazionali, Cellino stressed that “international support is essential for any political breakthrough — particularly given the disintegration of Libyan institutions, the deep entrenchment of armed groups within the economy, and Russia’s growing influence.”

He maintained that the European Union must take “more decisive measures” to support the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) in advancing elections, stabilizing the economy, protecting human rights, and addressing both humanitarian and migration-related crises.

“Coordinated European cooperation is not only essential for restoring stability and ending chaos in Libya, but also for countering Russia’s broader strategic agenda in Africa,” Cellino added.

“Moreover, the current U.S. administration’s strategic ambiguity toward Russia — and its inconsistent approach to Libya — only reinforces the fact that Europe, not just on its own continent, must increasingly rely on its own capabilities to confront Moscow’s aggressive expansionism.”

Cellino noted that this reality demands that every EU member state set aside its competing interests in Libya — which have long undermined collective international action — and instead lend firm support to the efforts of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL).

Russia’s Role

In his assessment of Europe’s anxiety over Russia’s growing role, Dmitry Brezhnev — researcher and head of the Russian Studies Unit at the Arab-Eurasian Research Center— cautioned against interpreting the European concern through a narrow or conventional lens focused solely on influence or fleeting interests.

“This is a layered, strategic fear — one that reveals a deeper tremor within the foundations of European political thinking shaped in the post-Cold War era,” Brezhnev told Al-Estiklal.

“That thinking was built on the assumption that the southern Mediterranean would remain a near-exclusive sphere of influence for the European Union — particularly for France and Italy — under a tacit understanding with the United States.”

The political analyst noted that Russia’s gradual entry into Libya from 2016 — followed by a more pronounced political, military, and economic footprint after 2019 — upended this long-standing balance, prompting political and security elites in Brussels, Paris and Rome to rethink how global power dynamics are playing out on their doorstep.

He warned that “for Europe, Libya is not merely a security file. It sits at the intersection of energy security, irregular migration, counterterrorism, and maritime control — any disruption in this arena reverberates immediately within the European interior.”

That is why, Brezhnev added, “the presence of a rival major power such as Russia at the heart of this issue constitutes a dual threat.”

Firstly, because it undermines European dominance over a strategic coastline stretching more than 1,900 kilometers off Italy, Greece and Malta; and secondly, because it hands Moscow significant leverage over Brussels across multiple arenas — from energy and security to the conflict in eastern Ukraine and the wider Mediterranean basin.

“Europe’s deepest fear is that Russia’s presence in Libya will evolve from an indirect military footprint — as exemplified by Wagner, which has been repurposed within a new structure following the war in Ukraine — into a formal institutional partnership with Libyan authorities, whether in the east or even through shared understandings with the west,” Brezhnev stated.

“Such a partnership, if it materializes, would mark the beginning of the end of Europe’s monopoly over Libyan decision-making, establishing a new reality where Moscow acts as a mediator and guarantor in key areas including oil, reconstruction, border security, and even post-transition political arrangements.”

From a strategic perspective, Brezhnev explained, “Libya represents a vital source of oil and gas, and one of Europe’s most important alternatives amid its ongoing crisis with Russia over natural gas supplies following the war in Ukraine.”

He warned that “if Moscow succeeds in establishing its presence within Libya’s oil facilities — whether through investment contracts or by supporting local actors who can influence sovereign energy decisions — Europe risks entering a catastrophic paradox: relying on Libyan gas that is, at least in part, subject to Russian influence, all in an effort to reduce its dependence on Russian gas.”

From another angle, the political analyst noted that “Europe does not view Libya solely as an independent state, but as part of Africa’s broader strategic depth — a region it seeks to reshape through economic, developmental, and security frameworks, either via the European Union or through Franco-African alliances.”

“Russia’s presence in Libya, particularly as it intersects with its growing influence in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Sudan, undermines Europe’s ability to extend its reach southwards and blocks a strategic corridor it has relied on for decades,” he added.