Controversial Lists: How the Turkish Parties Are Preparing for the Upcoming Election Battle

Turkiye is witnessing the general elections that will take place on May 14, 2023, as observers describe them as the most competitive in the country’s history, in light of the convergence of the results of opinion polls issued about a month before the elections, with the opposition forces uniting for the first time behind one presidential candidate and preparing joint and separate lists for the parliamentary elections, despite some paradoxes.

The electoral lists for Parliament, which were submitted by the political parties on April 9, 2023, to the Supreme Elections Committee, revealed the presence of many former officials of the ruling party on the opposition lists, which preoccupied public opinion and sparked a great debate among voters.

In addition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) concluded an agreement with the small right-wing parties in its opposition coalition (the Nation Alliance), according to which the candidates of these parties will participate in the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections under its lists.

However, the surprise included in the lists of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) was the nomination of the vice president and all government ministers, except for the ministers of health and culture.

After two days of political debate over the parliamentary election lists, Erdogan revealed his party’s electoral program in preparation for the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections, announcing a set of promises that he would fulfill if he continued to lead Turkiye.

 

Prominent Candidates

Turkiye’s Supreme Electoral Commission announced that 26 parties had submitted their lists to participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections, which will be held on May 14, which is considered a crossroads for the current government, and crucial for the opposition, especially since it is being held in conjunction with the presidential elections.

Attention was also directed to the most prominent parties, including the ruling AKP and its allies, after the National Movement Party (MHP) presented its lists last week, as well as the CHP and the Good Party from the opposition.

Of the current deputies, 104 were included on the AKP’s candidate list, whereas 181 were not. Moreover, 65 deputies, including top executives such as Binali Yildirim, Mehmet Ozhaseki, Nurettin Canikli, Ali Ihsan Yavuz, and Bulent Turan, were not nominated due to the three-term rule of the party. The AKP currently has 285 seats in Parliament.

The biggest surprise included in the lists of the AKP was the nomination of 15 ministers from the current government in the most important cities that are considered strongholds of the party, like Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu from Antalya, Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu from Istanbul, and Defense Minister Hulusi Akar from Kayseri, according to Yeni Safak newspaper in its report on April 9, 2023.

The list of AKP candidates also included other prominent names, including Vice President Fuat Oktay from Ankara, AKP spokesman Omer Celik from Adana, and AK Party Deputy Chair Numan Kurtulmus from Istanbul.

The lists of the ruling party were also not devoid of the nomination of symbols that were once symbols of the Turkish opposition, like the former deputy of the opposition CHP, Mehmet Ali Celebi, who defected from the party of the founder of the Turkish Republic and joined the AKP, and was nominated by the party for Izmir, which is the stronghold of the CHP.

On the other hand, the AKP nominated four candidates from the radical Islamist Free Cause Party (HUDA PAR) and three from the Democratic Left Party (DSP).

Surprisingly, the MHP did not join any joint list with its ally (the AKP), presenting its list of candidates unilaterally, headed by the party’s president, Devlet Bahceli, and the same applies to the Great Union Party (BBP) and the New Welfare Party (YPR).

 

Controversial Lists

The controversy surrounding the AKP’s list for the parliamentary elections did not differ from the list published by the opposition CHP led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu, especially in light of the fact that it contains prominent names that were once leaders in the ruling AKP.

The CHP also submitted a list of 76 candidates from its right-wing political allies, at least 30 of whom are in places where they are likely to win.

The right-wing parties initially sought to create a separate joint list to obtain about 20 seats in the Turkish Parliament but were unable to reach an agreement.

According to what was reported by the British Middle East Eye website on April 10, 2023, this is the first time in the history of the opposition party that it has given space to these right-wing politicians, many of whom were his opponents and former members of the ruling AKP.

However, some of the right-wing candidates who were chosen, such as the deputy head of the Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA), Sadullah Ergin, who was among the founders of the AKP and previously held the position of Minister of Justice, and was included in the lists of the CHP from Ankara, aroused particular anger from supporters of Kilicdaroglu’s party.

Another candidate, Sema Silkin Un from the Future Party, sparked controversy in the ranks of the Nation Alliance after she was nominated for the CHP list from Denizli, and the reason is that she was the former private secretary of Erdogan’s wife.

In addition to Cemal Enginyurt of the Democrat Party (DP), a Turkish nationalist who used to support Erdogan’s government, he is currently running through the lists of the CHP from Istanbul, which is also surprising and controversial.

The lists of the CHP, in addition to its party’s deputies, included candidates representing its allies in the opposition from 5 parties: the Democrat Party (DP), the Felicity Party (SP), the Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA), the Future Party (GP), and the Change Party (TDP).

The Good Party (IYI) also presented its own lists that included candidates in a large number of states. On the other hand, it allied itself with the CHP in heating states in order to raise its chances of winning more parliamentary seats.

In a surprise move, the IYI nominated AKP’s former Interior Minister Idris Naim Sahin on their list.

However, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) will run in the election under the umbrella of the Green Left Party, since it faces the risk of being closed down with just days left until the elections.

On the other hand, the CHP-breakaway Homeland Party and far-right Victory Party also submitted their lists to the Supreme Electoral Commission.

For the sake of these nominations, the CHP abandoned 66 deputies representing it in the current Parliament out of 134 deputies, to make way for the nomination of names for the small parties participating in what is known as the Nation Alliance or the Six-Party Alliance.

Media reports had previously stated that intense discussions and disagreements raged between the parties in the process of forming the joint lists, and other problems were expected to emerge, especially within the CHP, because the lists were devoid of a large number of party leaders in favor of small parties.

 

Complicated Elections

On April 19, Turkiye’s Supreme Electoral Commission will approve the final list of candidates for Parliament.

Thus, the features of the electoral battle, in both its presidential and parliamentary parts, have been completed, after the 4 presidential candidates were identified earlier, for Turkiye to enter the final stage of the race on May 14.

In turn, the political analyst, Dr. Saeed al-Haj, told Al-Estiklal that the Turkish parliamentary elections in May 2023 are more important, sensitive, and complex than they were in June 2018.

Among the reasons for this: the current system of alliances, the state of intense political polarization, and the opposition’s promises to restore the country to the parliamentary system, he said.

Dr. al-Haj believes that the new Turkish president, whoever he is, will not want the majority of Parliament to be with the opposition coalition, lest that hinder his work and decisions.

“Therefore, every coalition participating in the elections is keen to win the presidency and the majority of Parliament together,” he noted.

From the point of view of the researcher in Turkish political affairs, Mahmoud Alloush, the importance of the Turkish parliamentary elections can be summarized in two things. The first is that the victory of any of the two coalitions in the presidency and losing it in Parliament would be an incomplete victory.

He added in a statement to Al-Estiklal that “the aforementioned is related to the fact that the president who will be elected will find it difficult to exercise power clearly if he does not have a parliamentary majority to help him pass laws and legislation.”

On the part of the opposition coalition, even if it was able to win the presidential elections, without obtaining a two-thirds majority or 60% of the parliamentary seats, it would not be able to abolish the presidential system and transform it into a strengthened parliamentary system by amending the constitution or submitting the draft amendment to the constitution to a popular referendum, according to the political researcher.

Mr. Alloush explained that “the results of the parliamentary elections will have an impact on the presidential elections, especially if the competition goes to a second round and none of the four candidates, Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu in particular, could decide it in the first round.

“Any of the ruling and opposition coalitions obtaining a clear parliamentary majority will give one of them a new electoral advantage in a possible second round, by attracting hesitant votes whose political stability factor plays a decisive role in determining their electoral options.”

In other words, Mr. Alloush indicated that the coalition that will obtain a parliamentary majority will present itself in a possible second round of the presidential elections as being able to bring about political stability in the country and avoid a conflict between the executive and legislative branches.

 

Erdogan’s Promises

In a related context, on April 11, 2023, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan revealed his party’s electoral program in preparation for the presidential and parliamentary elections to be held next month.

Among the promises made by the AKP to the Turks are the creation of 6 million new jobs in 5 years, and the reduction of the unemployment rate to 7%, in addition to raising the per capita income of the national income in the coming period to $16,000 annually, and then to higher levels, as reported by Reuters.

The Turkish president also said that he intends to boost tourism investments to achieve the goal of 90 million tourists and revenues of $100 billion annually, adding that he aims to raise the volume of Turkish foreign trade to $1 trillion.

Erdogan added, “We will strengthen the health system, and aim to receive 3 million guests and $10 billion in medical tourism.

“With an annual growth rate of 5.5%, we will increase our national income during the coming period to $1.5 trillion, and then to $2 trillion, which is our main goal.”

The Turkish president also made promises to young people, and said that a loan of ₺150,000 will be granted to young people who are about to get married, without interest, provided that the installments are paid after two years.

With regard to promises related to refugees and foreigners in the AKP’s program before the elections, the party intends to increase and intensify integration campaigns with immigrants on the one hand, and to increase steps to facilitate voluntary return to their country.

For the presidential elections, if no candidate can secure at least 50% of the votes, a second run-off will be held on May 28 between the top two runners.

Around 61 million voters will head to the ballot box on election day, and it is estimated that 3 million voters abroad will likely cast their votes in advance, between April 27 and May 9.