How Pro-EU Forces Won Elections in Three European Countries

Europe recently witnessed a series of crucial presidential and legislative elections that reflected the diversity of its political landscape, with the rise of moderate centrist forces in some countries and the growth of far-right parties in others, amid mounting political and economic challenges.

In a scene reflecting a fundamental shift in voter preferences, election results in three European countries showed a clear rise of the populist right, boldly emulating the model of US President Donald Trump.

In Romania, the populist candidate lost the elections but garnered 46% of the vote, issuing a clear warning of rising anti-EU rhetoric.

In Portugal, the far-right surprised everyone by surpassing the 20% threshold, while in Poland, a right-wing candidate faces a runoff that could reshape the political landscape of Eastern Europe's largest country.

It's worth noting that the Ukraine war and Trump's policies dominated Super Sunday's elections in Poland, Romania, and Portugal.

Profound Change

Nicusor Dan, the moderate and pro-EU mayor of Bucharest, won a decisive victory in the Romanian elections, defeating his far-right rival, George Simion.

Dan received 53.8% of the vote compared to Simion's 46.2%, with a turnout of 65%, the highest since 1996.

Dan told his cheering supporters, “Elections are about communities, and in today's elections, a community of Romanians who want profound change in Romania has won. This is a moment of hope.”

Politico reported that Simion questioned the legitimacy of the vote during the election itself and declared victory early, despite clear polls indicating his rival had a lead.

Simion wrote in a social media post, “I am the new president of Romania,” ignoring the initial results. 

Hours later, he posted a video on Facebook congratulating Dan and conceding defeat.

Simion, an admirer of US President Trump, won the first round of the presidential election by a wide margin, receiving approximately 41% of the vote, double that of his rival, Dan.

Simion had pledged to take Romania in a Eurosceptic and anti-Ukrainian direction, similar to the policies of Viktor Orban in Hungary.

However, Simion's high vote share is likely to help his Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), the second-largest party in parliament, especially with the expected government turmoil and austerity measures needed to control the ballooning public deficit.

Difficult Negotiations

In Portugal, the center-right Democratic Alliance, led by Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, won the largest number of votes in the snap legislative elections held on May 18, but fell short of a sufficient parliamentary majority, opening the door to difficult negotiations to form a stable government.

Montenegro’s party won 32.7% of the vote, giving it 89 of the 230 seats in Parliament, far short of the 116 needed to form a majority government.

The left-leaning Socialist Party came in second with 23.4%, losing 20 seats and ending up with only 58 MPs, leading to the resignation of party leader Pedro Nuno Santo.

In a dramatic illustration of the radical changes in Portugal's political landscape, support for the populist Chega party rose again, coming in third with 22.6%, a significant jump from its 58 seats, but could increase once votes from overseas electors finish being tallied.

Montenegro is known for its refusal to form a coalition with Chega and may attempt to form a minority government with the support of the Liberal Initiative party, which came in fourth with 5.5%.

However, Montenegro recently evaded reaffirming this assertion, saying, “Everyone must be able to dialogue and put the national interest above all else.”

Montenegro’s minority government lost a confidence vote in Parliament amid questions about the prime minister's conduct, bringing the worst bout of political instability in Portugal's 51-year democracy.

Politico focused on the rapid growth of Portugal's far-right party, which went from having only one MP in parliament in 2019 to becoming a major force today.

“The system has been shaken, and we represent an alternative to governance,” commented one of the party's MPs.

Chega's huge wins in the south of Portugal have many concerned ahead of this fall’s nationwide local elections.

It is likely to gain control of municipal governments in key cities across the country, further consolidating the far right’s presence in Portugal. 

Public frustration with Portugal's main parties has led to an increasingly fragmented political landscape and challenged efforts to unify policies on pressing national issues such as immigration, housing, and the cost of living.

Portugal has seen a sharp rise in immigration. In 2018, the number of legal immigrants in the country was less than half a million.

By early this year, their number had exceeded 1.5 million, many of them Brazilians and Asians working in the tourism and agriculture sectors.

Important Vote

In Poland, Rafał Trzaskowski, the pro-EU mayor of Warsaw, faces an unexpectedly tough runoff against right-wing rival Karol Nawrocki, on June 1, after narrowly defeating him in the first round on May 18.

Trzaskowski received 31.2% of the vote, ahead of Nawrocki 29.7%, amid a sharp division in Polish society between pro-European democratic and populist conservatives.

The Polish president is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, directs foreign policy, and can introduce and veto bills.

A victory in the second round, if Trzaskowski were to succeed, would enable center-right Prime Minister Donald Tusk to implement his reform agenda.

Trzaskowski had pledged to strengthen Poland's role as a key player at the heart of European policy making and to work with the government to roll back judicial reforms introduced by the Eurosceptic Law and Justice (PiS) party, which governed Poland until 2023, and which critics say have undermined the independence of the courts.

Trzaskowski told his supporters: “We are aiming for victory. We have a lot of work ahead of us, and we need determination,” while his rival, Nawrocki, told his supporters that he was confident of winning the second round.

In turn, Nawrocki called on the far right to support him and save Poland, citing their Eurosceptic and their accusation that the country's one million Ukrainian refugees are exploiting Poland.

The far-right candidates, Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun, received more than 21% of the vote combined, a historically high percentage.

It is worth noting that Trzaskowski and Nawrocki together won 61% of the first vote, the lowest combined result for the two main parties: Tusk’s Civic Platform party and the populist right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party.

For Marcin Duma, CEO at IBRIS Institute for Social and Market Research, this result was a clear yellow card given by voters to Tusk and Trzaskowski for failing to deliver on the promises they made in 2023.

Populist Revolt

According to the Financial Times, the election results in the three European countries clearly revealed how the populist revolt has gained strength across Europe and is increasingly close to seizing or regaining power.

It also noted that the three elections demonstrated a clear anti-European trend among voters.

This trend was clearly evident in Romania, where the joint candidate of the ruling center-left and center-right parties won only a fifth of the vote in the first round of the presidential election earlier this month.

The three elections also demonstrated the rapid rise of new right-wing populists. 

Portugal's Chega party, led by former apprentice priest and football analyst Andre Ventura, made electoral gains just three years ago, winning 7% of the vote in a parliamentary election.

The three election results also demonstrated how boasting ideological affinity with US President Trump can pay off electorally.

Like Romania's Simion, Portugal's Ventura has strengthened his closeness to Trump—as has Poland's Nawrocki, who briefly had a photo opportunity with the US president.

Across Europe, far-right groups are winning historically large chunks of the electorate and dominating political debates, even without securing power.

In the UK, the right-wing Reform Party recorded a stunning performance in May's local elections, winning hundreds of council seats, leaving party leader Nigel Farage—known for his close association with Trump and the MAGA movement—to declare an end to the traditional dominance of Britain's two main parties.

In Germany's February parliamentary elections, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party successfully transformed years of rising popularity into a party that won around 21% of the vote and became the second-largest party in the Bundestag.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron has so far succeeded in fending off the ongoing presidential challenge from far-right leader Marine Le Pen and her National Rally party, but he has been unable to prevent the party from becoming the largest in the National Assembly in 2024.

This year, right-wingers gathered for the "Make Europe Great Again" conference in Madrid in February, organized by Spain's far-right VOX party.