A Shocking Scenario: Will Turkiye Accept Finland’s NATO Bid Without Sweden?

Last week, Turkiye hinted for the first time that it was willing to consider Finland’s candidacy for NATO membership separately from Sweden’s candidacy, Bloomberg reported.

In early February, Erdogan said that Turkiye’s position is positive regarding Finland’s bid to join NATO but that it does not support Sweden’s bid.

Erdogan added, during a speech addressed to his Justice and Development Party deputies in parliament: “Sweden should not be concerned with the burden of trying at this stage. We will not say yes to their bid to join NATO as long as they allow the burning of the Quran.”

On January 24, 2023, Turkiye obstructed the two countries’ accession to NATO by postponing until further notice a tripartite meeting that was scheduled for the beginning of February, aimed at dispelling Ankara’s objection to their accession due to the anti-Ankara demonstrations in Stockholm.

Since May 2022, Turkiye has been obstructing Sweden and Finland’s accession to the alliance, accusing the two countries of harboring terrorists, especially those affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Gulen Organization.

On the other hand, Finland and Sweden continue to say that they seek to join the alliance hand in hand. Although they submitted their applications simultaneously, each country submitted its own bid.

Regarding this scenario, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said that the United States welcomes the accession of the two countries at the earliest opportunity, but he will not answer questions about the two countries’ unilateral accession to the alliance, according to Reuters.

 

Shocking Scenario

Informed sources said in statements to Bloomberg on February 3, 2023, that Turkiye is close to making a decision to approve Finland’s accession to NATO by next month at the latest, leaving Sweden in an uncertain situation.

“President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is close to concluding that steps taken by Helsinki to address security concerns have been enough for lawmakers to ratify the country’s NATO membership,” the sources added.

“The announcement may come before Turkiye’s parliament goes into recess in mid-March ahead of elections slated for May,” the sources pointed out.

On her part, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said, on February 2, 2023: “We have addressed the concerns raised by Turkiye. It is up to two countries, Turkiye and Hungary, to ratify. We are expecting and waiting them to ratify our applications as soon as possible.”

The possible move by Turkiye represents a show of support by Erdogan for an expansion of the 30-nation NATO alliance, though the status of Sweden remains uncertain.

Sweden has been pushing to join the alliance alongside Finland since Russia invaded Ukraine almost a year ago, but Erdogan has blocked the proposal over the Nordic nation’s alleged support for terrorist militants, in reference to the Kurdish organizations that Ankara classifies as terrorist.

It is noteworthy that relations between Turkiye and Sweden worsened in recent weeks after protesters in Stockholm displayed an upside-down effigy of Erdogan, and a far-right activist burned a copy of the Holy Quran near the Ankara embassy in Stockholm.

In turn, political researcher Dr. Saeed al-Haj said in a statement to Al-Estiklal that “the path of Sweden’s accession to NATO, in particular, is almost impossible, given that Turkiye’s approval should pass through the Parliament, which is racing against time to pass necessary bills before the country enters the election atmosphere with the expected decision to advance the election date to May 14.”

The political researcher also expected Stockholm’s lack of progress in this short time, which could satisfy Ankara, in addition to the fact that the United States did not do something similar, with Congress seeking to link the file of Sweden and Finland’s accession to the F-16 fighter jets deal.

Commenting on Erdogan’s statement that his country might shock Sweden with a different decision regarding Finland’s bid, Dr. al-Haj explained that “such a Turkish position would spare Ankara additional pressure from NATO and the United States, as it would confirm its principled commitment to the policy of expanding the alliance, and that its decision is linked to specific reasons, and on the other hand, it would add strength to its position against Sweden later.”

Dr. al-Haj concluded that “Turkiye kept NATO’s door slightly open in front of Finland, whose chances of joining before the Turkish elections still exist, but Ankara may not go for this option unless Helsinki asks it and NATO to do so.”

 

Finland’s Position

On January 23, 2023, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that Sweden, which he accuses of harboring terrorists, could no longer count on Ankara’s support after a far-right activist burned a copy of the Quran in Stockholm, as reported by Reuters.

After Erdogan’s warning, Finland spoke for the first time, on January 24, 2023, about the possibility of joining NATO without Sweden, as reported by Bloomberg.

Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto confirmed that joining the two northern European countries together remains the first option, but clarified: “Of course we have to assess the situation and see whether in the long term something that happened will prevent Sweden from moving forward.”

In statements to the public television network YLE, Haavisto added: “We understand the resentment felt by many in Finland at the present time, as in the current situation we are not yet members of NATO.”

“However, we focus on the clear message that Finland still wants to join NATO with Sweden,” he added.

In another context, Haavisto considered that the large protests in the Islamic world and in Turkiye in response to the burning of the Quran in Sweden constitute an obstacle to the candidacy of the two Nordic countries for NATO membership.

Haavisto pointed out that Finland needs a time-out of about two weeks in the NATO accession talks between Sweden, Finland, and Turkiye, noting that the Turkish veto may continue until the Turkish general elections in mid-May next.

On January 30, 2023, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stated that Turkiye has fewer problems with Finland compared to Sweden regarding their bid to join the alliance, stressing that his country is not against the expansion of the alliance, as reported by the Financial Times.

“Finland made positive statements, and there are positive developments with regard to the sanctions imposed on Turkiye, especially the restrictions imposed on the export of defense industry products, and they did not issue provocations as happened in Sweden,” he added.

In this regard, YLE reported, on January 30, 2023, that the Finnish National Police Board considers burning sacred books a punishable offense.

“Finnish law, unlike other Nordic countries, protects religious peace and can penalize its violation,” it stated.

According to a poll conducted by the Finnish opinion institute Taloustutkimus, the majority of Finnish citizens are in favor of joining NATO without Sweden.

The poll showed that the Finns do not wish to be associated with the Swedes in the problems taking place with Turkiye, and wish to continue their way towards entering NATO, indicating that Finland will not bear the cost of the freedom of expression laws implemented by Sweden.

The poll indicated that 53% of the respondents affirmed that Finland’s membership in the alliance should not depend on Sweden’s membership and that the Finnish government should isolate itself from the Swedish position.

Meanwhile, 28% answered that Finland should wait for Sweden, 19% said they had no opinion on the matter, according to the Finnish daily Ilta-Sanomat.

“The Finns’ opinion of this poll can be summed up in one sentence: The Swedish issue is not our issue,” said Juho Rahkonen, Research Director of Taloustutkimus, which carried out the poll.

“This is a clear political message from the citizens to the decision-makers that the NATO matter needs to be moved forward. You can’t turn back either,” he added.

Rahkonen expressed his belief that “the tensions between Ankara and Stockholm in recent weeks affected the negotiations, and Helsinki should not be a party to this problem.”

Turkiye, Finland, and Sweden reached an agreement in June 2022 on a way forward for the two countries to join NATO, but Ankara suspended the talks last month after protests in Stockholm in which an extremist Danish politician burned a copy of the Quran.

 

US Pressure

In the same context, a group of US senators said, on February 2, 2023, that Congress cannot support the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkiye, at a value of $20 billion, until Ankara agrees to Sweden and Finland joining NATO, as reported by CNN.

In a letter to President Joe Biden, 29 Democratic and Republican senators said the two Nordic countries are making full and good-faith efforts to meet the conditions for NATO membership requested by Turkiye, although Ankara says Sweden needs to do more.

“Congress cannot consider future support for [Turkiye], including the sale of the F-16 jets, until Turkiye completes ratification of the accession protocols,” the senators wrote in the letter.

This is the first time that Congress explicitly and directly links the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Ankara and the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO.

The Biden administration has repeatedly confirmed that it supports the deal, and refused to link the two issues, but acknowledged that ratifying the two countries’ accession to NATO would facilitate the approval of the sale process in Congress.

On a visit to Washington last month, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said the issue of NATO membership should not be a precondition for the sale, and urged the Biden administration to persuade Congress to drop its objection.

In October 2021, Turkiye requested the purchase of 40 F-16 fighter jets, manufactured by Lockheed Martin, and approximately 80 sets of spare parts to modernize its warplanes after the failure of the F-35 purchase deal.

Apathy prevailed in the US Congress towards Turkiye over the past years after Ankara acquired Russian-made defense missile systems, which led to the imposition of US sanctions and the exclusion of Ankara from the F-35 fighter jets program.

It is noteworthy that Congress has never succeeded in preventing any arms sale abroad required by the White House.