What Future Awaits the Horn of Africa if the Ethiopia-Eritrea Front Erupts?

Tensions are rising between the longtime enemies and uneasy neighbors, Ethiopia and Eritrea, over Addis Ababa’s renewed push for access to the Red Sea.

This has sparked fears of a new war in the Horn of Africa, just seven years after the two countries restored diplomatic ties.

In recent months, Eritrea has called on its youth to join the army, while reports indicate Ethiopia has deployed troops near their shared border.

Experts on African affairs warn that these escalations could lead to a full-scale military confrontation.

Where It All Began

On April 17, 2025, the European Council on Foreign Relations issued a report warning that the risk of a renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea is steadily increasing.

The Berlin-based think tank noted that both countries are playing “a dangerous game of chess,” with Tigray lying right in the centre of the board.

The report said relations have deteriorated significantly in recent years, with the governments of both countries now indicating they are ready for conflict. 

In February 2025, Eritrea launched a national mobilization, followed by a similar move in Ethiopia in March. Heavy weapons and mechanized units have reportedly been deployed near the border, particularly in Ethiopia’s Afar region.

What triggered the current tensions, and where might they lead?

It began when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed expressed, in January 2025, interest in deepening ties with the breakaway Republic of Somaliland—while eyeing Eritrea’s Assab port.

Abiy has repeatedly stated that sea access is an “existential” need for Ethiopia, the world’s most populous landlocked country with 130 million people. In February 2025, he called Ethiopia’s loss of Eritrean coastline a “historic mistake.”

Soon after, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki ordered a mass mobilization, enlisting thousands of young men into the army.

At the same time, Eritrea reportedly began undermining Abiy by backing his enemies in the Amhara region bordering Tigray.

Eritrean intelligence assisted Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) leader  Debretsion Gebremichael in an attempted coup in early March 2025.

Ethiopia responded by deploying tanks and troops to the Eritrean border, while state media amplified voices justifying the country’s claims over the Assab port.

On the Brink of War

On April 1, 2025, Tigray’s deputy leader, General Tsadkan Gebretensae, warned that war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could “break out at any moment,” and that the region risked becoming a battlefield once again.

Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos, the former U.S. and EU special envoys to the region, described developments as “dry tinder waiting for a match that could ignite an interstate war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.”

Abiy said he wanted Ethiopia to regain the Assab port peacefully. “Ethiopia has no intention to invade Eritrea to gain Red Sea access,” he said on Thursday. “Our desire is to talk about it under the principle of give and take, in a mutually beneficial manner, and according to commercial law.”

However, in a press briefing last week, Eritrea’s Foreign Minister Osman Saleh scolded Ethiopia for its rhetoric and denied preparing for a war.

“Eritrea is perplexed by Ethiopia’s misguided and outdated ambitions for maritime access and naval base through diplomacy or military force,” Saleh said. “In this respect, Eritrea urges the international community and its relevant bodies to put pressure on Ethiopia to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its neighbours.”

The Tigray Fuse!

Multiple research centers monitoring tensions in the Horn of Africa have warned that if war erupts between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the Tigray region would likely be the flashpoint.

Following two brutal years of war that devastated northern Ethiopia, the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) reached a peace deal (the Pretoria Agreement) in November 2023, a move that was initially seen as a beacon of hope for ending the conflict.

However, despite official denials, Eritrea was reportedly angered by the agreement, feeling sidelined. Many analysts described Asmara’s reaction as one of betrayal, especially since Eritrea had played a key military role alongside Addis Ababa in the war against Tigray, suffering both casualties and international sanctions.

Observers argue that Eritrea’s exclusion from the talks was intentional. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was likely aware that President Isaias Afwerki opposed any reconciliation with the TPLF. Moreover, the U.S., which sponsored the agreement, had long sought to distance itself from Asmara, given the historically tense relationship between the two.

Eritrea’s hostility toward the Pretoria Agreement is rooted in several factors, chief among them the clause that recognized the TPLF as a legitimate political entity within Ethiopia. This contradicted Asmara’s goal of dismantling the TPLF altogether.

The agreement opened the door to a potential tripartite alignment between Addis Ababa, Tigray, and Washington, Eritrea’s primary geopolitical adversary, further fueling fears in Asmara of a direct threat to its influence and national security.

Mounting Tensions

According to Africa Intelligence (April 28, 2025), Abiy may now be seeking to secure Tigray’s support, particularly given its formidable military force of some 200,000 troops, which could pose a serious threat to Eritrea.

Tigray’s new leaders, meanwhile, want to regain control of western Tigray, a fertile area with gold deposits that was seized by Amhara forces during the war. Any attempt to recapture it could also spark fresh conflict, said Ahmed Soliman, at the geopolitical think tank Chatham House.

“The crux is how things evolve in Tigray and how Abiy responds,” Soliman added. “If there is no agreement, the situation could certainly escalate.”

The war between the Tigrayan rebels and Ethiopia’s federal government officially ended in 2022, leaving behind a staggering toll: around 600,000 people dead and nearly 10% of women aged between 15 and 49 living in Tigray raped, according to a British Medical Journal study.

Adding fuel to the fire, on January 27, 2025, Addis Ababa hosted a controversial conference for Brigade N'Hamedu, a dissident group known for disrupting Eritrean government events among the diaspora in Western countries.

The gathering marked a significant escalation in the group’s activities, with broad participation including members of the Eritrean Afar National Congress. The final resolution: a commitment to armed struggle to overthrow the Eritrean regime.

Conflict Backdrop

Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have long been fragile. Eritrea was an Italian colony until 1951, when it came under British administration and was later incorporated as an autonomous region within Ethiopia.

In 1962, Ethiopia formally annexed Eritrea, prompting an armed resistance led by Isaias Afwerki. After decades of struggle, Eritrea gained full independence in 1993.

Tensions flared again in 1998 over a disputed border area, leading to a two-year war that killed an estimated 80,000 people and separated countless families across the border.

Diplomatic ties were severed entirely; communications, transportation links, and postal services were all suspended. In 2000, a UN-brokered peace agreement awarded the disputed land to Eritrea, but Ethiopia never implemented the accord.

When Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in 2018, he moved quickly to mend ties with Afwerki, who had ruled Eritrea since independence. During a historic visit to Asmara, Abiy declared, “We will demolish the wall and, with love, build a bridge between the two countries.”

Phone lines were restored, flights resumed between Addis Ababa and Asmara, and separated families were reunited.

However, these promising developments soon unraveled. Abiy’s ambitions to secure direct access to the sea, given that Ethiopia is landlocked, sparked new tensions. Disagreements over the Pretoria Agreement and mutual support for armed opposition groups further inflamed the situation, bringing both sides to the brink of war.

Despite these ominous signs, the European Council on Foreign Relations has noted that key international actors, including Qatar, Turkiye, the U.S., the EU, and the UK, could potentially mediate a lasting solution in coordination with the African Union.

The Council also pointed to influential regional powers that could play a significant role.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia both wield considerable influence over Eritrea, the report stated, driven by their interest in acquiring territory along the Red Sea coast. However, both have been hesitant to push Asmara toward talks with Ethiopia due to their own regional calculations.

Saudi Arabia is increasingly competing with the UAE for influence in the region, including control over ports and trade routes. Abu Dhabi maintains close ties with Abiy Ahmed’s government and backs the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, according to the report.

Egypt, which supports Sudan’s regular army, is locked in a long-running dispute with Ethiopia over Nile waters. Cairo may consider engaging with Eritrea if Ethiopia shows genuine willingness to offer concessions on this front.

Without a strong international commitment to fostering dialogue, Tigray, and the wider Horn of Africa, risk sliding into further bloodshed.