‘Toxic Formula’: How the IMF Ignited a Popular Uprising in Kenya

Despite the fact that the plan of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sparked protests and revolutions in many countries and often proved unsuccessful, Kenya's President William Ruto insisted on subjecting his people to such a "toxic formula," risking his position.

President Ruto, who promised a pro-poor program after winning the 2022 elections, found himself caught between strong demands from lenders like the IMF, leading him to reverse his promises.

He raised prices and increased taxes to secure more funding, fully aware that the IMF's plan was harmful, as the populace suffers from the high cost of living. His actions triggered massive protests and clashes, with the people demanding his ouster even after he backtracked.

Ruto's rule became threatened due to his failure to grasp the popular anger, particularly from the new generation of youth leading the revolution against him through social media and modern technology.

Protest Eruption 

On June 25, 2024, following decisions to raise the prices of essential goods and increase taxes due to IMF and international banks' mandates, Kenya witnessed massive protests and a near-popular revolution against the increased burdens.

Kenyans occupied and burned down the parliament, resulting in 23 deaths and dozens injured by police gunfire. They remain determined to storm the presidential palace and overthrow the president.

The demonstrations initially started against tax increases, rising prices, and poverty. However, they soon escalated into a widespread popular uprising with calls to overthrow President Ruto. Protesters set fire to the parliament and some government facilities, leading to massacres in the streets of the capital, Nairobi.

The bill that ignited the latent revolution proposed additional taxes amounting to $2.7 billion as part of the government's efforts to reduce its heavy debt burden, with interest payments alone consuming 37% of annual revenue.

Akin to many African countries, Kenya is suffering from a severe economic crisis that has caused the Kenyan shilling to drop by 22% against the U.S. dollar since 2022, leading to higher prices for food, transportation, and energy, while incomes have remained stagnant.

Nevertheless, the IMF offered its toxic formula to the Kenyan government, urging them to raise prices and increase taxes to boost revenue, reduce the budget deficit, and curb government borrowing.

In April 2021, the IMF loaned Kenya $2.34 billion to "revive economic growth and address debt vulnerabilities" in exchange for a reform program aimed at increasing revenue.

Due to the program's failure, it was extended in July 2023 for another 20 months. However, the authorities continued with revenue-raising decisions, including tax hikes and price increases, which fueled public anger.

Kenya owes approximately $6.7 billion to China, according to IMF reports from 2022, and another $7.1 billion to bondholders.

Kenya also owes $3.8 billion to industrialized countries, $3.5 billion to the African Development Bank, and $1.9 billion to international commercial banks, as The New York Times reported on June 26, 2024.

To avoid default, countries like Kenya and Egypt must borrow more, leading to an even heavier overall debt burden. As the debt grows, lenders become less inclined to provide additional financing.

Before the popular uprising, the parliament approved the bill in its second reading and forwarded it to President Ruto for signing. However, the public could not tolerate it, and set fire to the parliament, forcing MPs to flee after being attacked inside the legislative institution.

Widespread demonstrations erupted in 19 out of Kenya's 47 counties when MPs approved the finance bill in its second reading. Despite the public outrage, the parliament and President Ruto moved to the third and final reading.

Protesters stormed the parliament building, vandalized its interior, set parts of the complex on fire, and stole the ceremonial mace symbolizing the authority of the legislative council.

The "Occupy Parliament" movement took off on social media after the government presented the 2024-2025 budget to parliament on June 13, 2024.

The new budget included the imposition of new taxes, such as a 16% value-added tax on bread and an annual 2.5% tax on private cars.

‘Now I Understand You!’ 

Kenyan President Ruto, who belongs to the hardline evangelical Christian faction, is an ally of the U.S., a staunch supporter of “Israel,” and the only African leader backing the Israeli Occupation after Operation al-Aqsa Flood on October 7, 2023. He violently condemned the protesters, calling them "traitors."

He ordered the police to deal harshly with the angry populace, resulting in dozens of deaths and injuries and threatened to deploy the army to end what he described as "treasonous" protests.

Wanjeri Nderu, head of the International Society for Human Rights, told the BBC what was experienced during the protest was “like we were at war”, adding that police were using live ammunition even before parliament was breached.

Ultimately, President Ruto realized these were not just fleeting protests, but a youth-led revolution driven by a generation struggling with high living costs, corruption, and government extravagance. He was forced to back down and revoke the decisions.

He echoed the sentiment of Arab leaders who fell during the Arab Spring, saying, "Now I understand you," and called for dialogue with the young people who were the backbone of the revolution against him.

On June 26, 2024, Ruto announced that he would not sign the finance bill that had sparked deadly protests across the country.

"Listening keenly to the people of Kenya who have said loudly that they want nothing to do with this finance bill 2024, I concede. And therefore, I will not sign the 2024 finance bill, and it shall subsequently be withdrawn," he said in a televised address with lawmakers, some clapping, seated behind him.

Protesters demanded the entire bill be scrapped, not just the most contentious parts. Ruto agreed.

The original bill proposed taxes on bread, cooking oil, mobile money transfers, specialized hospitals, and cars — items that Kenyans argued would exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis.

Despite President Ruto and his government retracting the tax and price increase law, the popular protests continued, with demonstrators now demanding the president's resignation and new elections.

Insistence on Overthrowing Him

Even as the protests dwindled following the president’s retraction, the demands escalated to his resignation due to the bloodshed during the demonstrations, which initially focused only on canceling the law.

Critics of Ruto accused him of demanding austerity from the people while he was corrupt and frequently traveled on expensive aircraft, dubbed "the flying president" and prompting calls for "political reform."

Ruto justified his foreign trips as "necessary to attract investments to the financially struggling country," but critics argued that he only asked for sacrifices from the people, reminiscent of third-world dictators. This forced him to announce token cuts in government spending.

Protesters and opposition figures accused him of bowing to demands from Western-led institutions like the IMF, which they said were draining the country just to secure loans for repaying previous debts.

Foreign media noted that despite Ruto's climbdown to quell the protests, he remained caught between the demands of lenders like the IMF and the people suffering from the high cost of living.

After the protests began, the government announced on June 18, 2024, that it would roll back most of the tax measures. However, demonstrators continued their movement, demanding a complete withdrawal of the budget and all proposed taxes, fearing that the government would impose other forms of taxes, such as a 50% increase in fuel prices.

The initially youth-led movement grew into a broad protest against President Ruto's policies, demanding his resignation despite his concessions.

Notably, when Ruto announced the rollback of the economic measures, he emphasized that he would "engage in dialogue with the youth," who had been at the forefront of the largest protests since his election in 2022.

Ruto's retreat was ultimately driven by the realization that it was the young people of Kenya who had ignited the uprising.

Kenya, like most African countries, has one of the youngest populations globally, with nearly three-quarters of its citizens under the age of 35, according to UN statistics.

Many young people protested for the first time, carrying signs that read "Don't tax us" and chanting "Ruto must go."

To pressure lawmakers and mobilize protesters, young people used slogans on social media like "Occupy Parliament" and "Reject Finance Bill 2024."

New Faces 

The BBC News Afrique in French highlighted the role of these young people in a report on June 27, 2024, titled "Who are the New Faces of Protest in Kenya?"

It noted the emergence of "a bold new generation of young Kenyan protesters in the streets, forcing the government to change course on a series of unpopular tax proposals."

The report explained that "the spark of anger ignited by young people on social media over the controversial budget bill turned into a volcano of revolution without the involvement of political parties."

The report pointed out the rise of Generation Z youth, referring to those born in the late 1990s and early 2000s, who took to the streets in large numbers, with their discontent extending beyond hashtags to real-life protests.

"We are Generation Z, we have been able to mobilize ourselves. We use TikTok as a space that allows not only for young people to come and protest, but also to explain to them why," said Zaha Indimuli, a protester, to journalists.

The police struggled to target protest participants, as they did not know the group behind the movement, according to BBC News Afrique.

Kenyan authorities arrested over 200 young protesters, but some were released following interventions by lawyers and human rights organizations.

One factor contributing to the success of the protests was that, unlike previous anti-government demonstrations, there were no mentions of political or ethnic affiliations. The protesters were simply determined to voice their opposition to the authorities.

One tactic that forced Kenyan parliamentarians to recognize the gravity of the situation was the publication of their phone numbers on social media, accompanied by the message, "Send a text to your MP."

Member of Parliament Stephen Mule told local media that his phone received over 30,000 messages from young Kenyans asking him to reject the bill. Other legislators also complained that their phones had become virtually unusable due to the high number of messages they were receiving.

Other MPs complained that their phones had become almost unusable for these reasons.

Local media became a platform for online discussions and protests, amplifying the voices of the demonstrators.

Professor Kivutha Kibwana, a jurist and former county governor, called for dialogue on X saying, "The most dangerous thing a government can do is declare war on its youth.”

The government has long feared the potential use of social media in protests and has called on regulators to impose stricter controls, particularly with the rise of the group known as Kenyans (KOX) on X.

This group is known for condemning the difficult social conditions faced by the populace, and Kenya has one of the highest rates of TikTok usage in the world.

The Interior Minister had previously threatened to restrict the use of TikTok, accusing it of spreading harmful content. However, protesters insisted that they had no intention of backing down, were not afraid, and that this was "just the beginning of the revolution," as they stated on social media platforms.