Russia–Ukraine War: Why Is 'Israel' the World's Most Affected?

Since Russia’s escalation against Ukraine began in early February 2022, the United States, European countries and others have been neutral to warn of an imminent war, while the Israeli occupation has remained silent.

After a long silence, the Israeli occupation was forced to issue its first official position on February 23 on Russia's escalation and its formal recognition of the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions from Ukraine.

Without any reference to Russia, a foreign ministry statement said that "Israel supports Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and is ready to provide humanitarian assistance to Kiev."

After the Russian invasion began at dawn on February 24, Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog also said without referring to Russia: "This is a very complex historical moment, I fear a human tragedy, and we support Ukraine's sovereignty."

But after US media reported that Washington was pressuring Tel Aviv to issue a clearer stance, Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid condemned, on February 24, the Russian attack as a serious violation of the international order.

 

Reasons for Caution

On why the Israeli occupation has avoided angering Moscow or even Kiev, the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (Hebrew) says Tel Aviv has "succeeded in recent years in formulating a unique path in international politics."

Therefore, it does not publicly confront Moscow on the Ukrainian issue and refrains from joining the West's collective punitive actions against Russia.

One of the reasons why the Israeli occupation has also refrained from directly condemning Russia's actions is due to the good relations that have arisen between the two parties in recent years in Syria.

Russia allows "Israel" freedom of military action against Iran in Syria, and even takes positive steps toward it, as happened with Moscow's return of the remains of missing Israeli soldier Zechariah Baumel, one of the dead at the Battle of Sultan Yacoub in Lebanon in 1982.

"Relations between Israel and Russia have reached an all-time high and have evolved significantly in the past 30 years compared to the Soviet period," the Hebrew Institute comments.

In return, Russia expects "Israel" to help it reach political agreements on the Middle East in cooperation with the United States.

"About 1 million Russian residents in Israel are a cultural bridge between the two countries, and there are thriving trade relations worth $2-3 billion a year," the institute said.

"Russia also values Israel as an honest defender of the Role of the Red Army in World War II."

In this regard, which is crucial to the Kremlin, Tel Aviv in Moscow is seen as its partner on a global scale.

In contrast, the Israeli occupation maintains close relations with Ukraine, which has always stood by it, as happened during the last war on the Gaza Strip (May 2021).

"The sky of Israel is strewn with missiles. Some cities are on fire," the Ukrainian president said in a tweet at the time, ignoring the crimes of occupation.

The Israeli occupation fears for the fate of tens of thousands of Ukrainian Jews and also seeks through various channels to ensure their safety and to bring them to it.

According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, estimates by Jewish organizations confirm that some 75,000 Jews live in eastern Ukraine, which is more threatened by Russian invasion, especially in large cities such as Odessa, Kharkov and others.

All of them were candidates for Israeli citizenship under the so-called "return" law.

 

Asking for More

From the outset, it was clear that states in the Middle East, the Israeli occupation included, were concerned with maintaining a position as neutral as possible and avoiding the need to take a stand on the conflict in Eastern Europe and choosing to stand with one side against another.

"Despite the understanding that the United States is reducing its intervention in the Middle East, most countries in the region still see good relations with the US administration as a key pillar in their vision of security," the Israel National Security Institute said.

"On the other hand, Israel is also concerned with maintaining the relationship with Russia that has deepened in recent years, and now includes expanding military relations and promoting deals to buy Russian weapons, despite Moscow's deep involvement in the war in Syria," it said during a February 22 study.

However, while the West shows a relative understanding of the Israeli occupation's need to talk to the Kremlin, particularly with regard to coordination in Syria, more is likely to be asked.

"If the Russian-Western-Ukrainian crisis escalates, it will force Israel to reconsider its current policy," the institute said.

It predicted that the Administration of US President Joe Biden would ask Tel Aviv to choose a side "more rigorously than in the past, and openly join the Western camp in condemning Russia and severing ties with it," which was later achieved.

"At the same time, Israel will be asked to constantly examine the appropriateness of its policies, while competition among the powers is intensifying, as the United States focuses on a historic confrontation with China after it withdrew from the Middle East and suffers from a relative weakness among the region's players," the institute said.

 

Real Fears

Tel Aviv believes that despite its position on the Russian move, Putin will allow the status quo in Syria to continue, one of the most important considerations that has supported Ukraine's sovereignty, Israel Hayom reported.

On the next step, the newspaper said, on February 24, that "Israel" at this stage is not ready to join the international sanctions that the West plans to impose on Russia.

The first impact came on February 23, when Russia announced that it would not recognize "Israel’s sovereignty over the Syrian Golan Heights," shortly after the Tel Aviv statement supporting "Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty."

Haaretz noted that it seemed like a "letter" of protest, from Moscow to Tel Aviv.

On the details, Haaretz reported that in a "monthly briefing on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict at the UN Security Council, Russia's Deputy Ambassador to the United Nations Dmitry Polyanskiy attacked Israel and affirmed Russia's position not to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and that it is an integral part of Syria."

The Israeli National Security Research Institute said the continuing crisis will not prompt Washington to listen to "Israel" or show an understanding of its attempts to preserve its interests by keeping its channels open with Moscow.

The crisis in Eastern Europe could affect the stability of some countries in the Middle East, as they depend heavily on the supply of agricultural products in general, and wheat in particular from Ukraine and Russia.

In such a reality, the chances of regimes in the region returning to the face of far-flung public protests will increase, making them unable to respond to public demands, the institute says.

In these circumstances of a severe international crisis, concerns about the stability of Jordan and Egypt will increase, and it goes without saying that instability in neighboring countries adds a layer of security challenges facing the Israeli occupation.

It is likely that the Israeli occupation itself will also be forced to deal with rising energy prices and their implications for the cost of living.