Can Municipal Elections Revive Hezbollah's Power in Lebanon?

Lebanon’s Hezbollah is working to rebuild its waning popularity following its recent confrontation with the Israeli Occupation, using the upcoming municipal and local elections, scheduled for May 4, 2025, as a key political platform to do so.

The group faced a major political blow on January 9, 2025, when it failed to sway the presidential selection of Joseph Aoun, marking one of the first signs of its weakened clout after the recent conflict with “Israel.”

The First Test

Tension is mounting across Lebanon, particularly in Shiite-majority areas, as voters prepare to choose their representatives in municipal and local councils. Discussions over candidates and electoral preparations are intensifying.

Administratively, Lebanon is divided into eight governorates and 25 districts: Beirut, Mount Lebanon, North, Akkar, Bekaa, Baalbek-Hermel, South, and Nabatieh. The country has 1,080 municipalities responsible for managing local affairs and providing basic services, forming a key pillar of administrative and developmental work.

The elections will take place over a four-week period, with each governorate voting on a separate date: May 4: Mount Lebanon; May 11: North and Akkar, May 18: Beirut, Bekaa, and Baalbek-Hermel, May 24: South and Nabatieh.

Observers believe the results of these elections will reflect Lebanon’s shifting political and social landscape, one that the new government of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam aims to shape. However, the 2025 municipal elections are no longer just about local governance; they have become a political and public litmus test for Hezbollah, whose influence, both political and military, has notably declined.

The local news site Janoubia reported that Hezbollah checkpoints have reappeared at the entrances of its stronghold in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Some of these are located just meters away from Lebanese Army checkpoints on the outskirts of the area.

These checkpoints appear at night and disappear by day, raising questions about their purpose given the presence of the army and other security agencies.

Janoubia suggested that these Hezbollah checkpoints are not related to the conflict with “Israel,” but rather to internal monitoring of the area’s residents. “All talk about the state and its institutions cannot change the fact that Hezbollah remains firmly present, militarily and security-wise, in the open.”

“The party’s authority remains fully operational within the suburbs and continues to suppress any signs of state presence, especially as municipal elections unfold under this distorted reality,” according to the source.

“Anyone who believes Hezbollah’s grip has weakened will be reminded otherwise by direct phone calls urging them to vote for the 'Resistance List.' The response to [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu, they say, will come through endorsing or electing Hezbollah’s candidates.”

Focus on the Alliance

The upcoming municipal elections are seen as a genuine test of Hezbollah’s current standing within its strongholds, the southern suburbs of Beirut, the South, and the Bekaa Valley, areas that have suffered significant destruction from Israeli airstrikes since October 2023.

These elections will be the first opportunity to gauge Hezbollah’s ability to manage its base and sustain its presence following the loss of key leaders. The results are expected to influence the trajectory of the 2026 parliamentary elections.

Hezbollah is therefore determined to ensure that no region, especially villages along the border, is excluded from the electoral process, rejecting the notion that the devastation caused by the recent Israeli attacks should delay the vote.

Highlighting the party’s readiness, MP Mohammad Raad, head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc “Loyalty to the Resistance,” told al-Akhbar on March 27, 2025: “This is not merely a municipal election; it is a matter of loyalty to the blood of the martyrs.”

In this context, Lebanese writer and analyst Assaad Bechara stated that Hezbollah, in coordination with the Amal Movement, plans to run joint candidates in most Shia-majority municipalities, and will likely have influence in other areas with a significant Shia presence.

“Lebanon’s municipal elections can’t undo the damage Hezbollah sustained in its war with Israel, nor can they reclaim its losses or make up for the heavy economic cost borne by the country,” he told Al-Estiklal.

“This electoral process will go ahead on schedule as set by the Lebanese state, without the postponements we’ve seen in the past due to political crises.”

Bechara pointed out that some villages will hold elections under extremely difficult conditions, with displaced residents still living amid widespread destruction. “The municipal elections,” he said, “will not be an occasion to rehabilitate Hezbollah’s image.”

Observers agree that the Shia duo, Hezbollah and Amal, is working to maintain its electoral dominance in Shia areas. Several media reports indicated that, in the months leading up to the vote, Hezbollah concentrated on providing financial compensation to those affected by Israeli strikes.

The pro-Hezbollah daily al-Akhbar described the upcoming elections as the clearest opportunity yet for the party to stabilize its position following the turmoil triggered by its latest confrontation with Israel.

“Hezbollah is entering the race not as a lone political faction, but as a cornerstone of Lebanon’s national fabric, still determined to defend its political, social, and developmental role despite enduring the most severe security blow in its history.”

Monopoly on Representation

Lebanese writer Hussein Ataya emphasized that preparations for municipal and local elections in the South are proceeding very slowly and are largely limited to the activities of officials and leaders from the Shia duo, Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, who, he said, monopolize representation of the Shia community.

In an article published by the Janoubia website on April 28, Attaya wrote, “Those who failed in the past and are now backed by the duo, those who have exploited the wealth of southern towns and cities, should step away from municipal work, having already proven their incompetence in local governance.”

“The duo still dreams of controlling any international reconstruction aid that might come, with plans to distribute it to their loyalists, just as they did after the 2006 war, when the process was riddled with corruption and theft of citizens’ rightful compensation,” he added.

Mohamad Barakat, editor-in-chief of the local news outlet Asas Media, also pointed to Hezbollah’s tactics, saying the group is attempting to impose pre-selected, unopposed candidates on Shia villages and Beirut’s southern suburbs while threatening alternative candidates to deter them from running.

Speaking to al-Jadeed TV on April 28, 2025, Barakat said, “Hezbollah is working to prevent the formation of any electoral lists that are not affiliated with it in southern villages and in Beirut.”

“Residents have received phone calls from Hezbollah warning them against voting for any list other than the party’s.”

Barakat also noted that Hezbollah’s distribution of financial compensation to families in its base creates a serious imbalance in political competition.

“To put it simply,” he said, “by paying out funds to those families, Hezbollah is obstructing the chances of any independent candidates emerging from outside its influence. That’s why there must be a cap on campaign spending, and the responsibility for compensating the affected and handling reconstruction should lie with the Lebanese state.”

A government source told the local newspaper ad-Diyar that the government considers these elections a major achievement, contributing to the reactivation of development across Lebanon.

The source noted that successfully holding the elections would send a positive message both domestically and internationally, signaling a return to normal state functioning and reinforcing Lebanon’s democratic trajectory.

The successful completion of municipal and local elections would serve as a model for the government's ability to handle future milestones, especially the parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2026.