Elon Musk's New Party: A Real Political Project or Just a Media Maneuver Against Trump?

In a move that sparked widespread controversy in American political circles, prominent businessman Elon Musk announced his intention to establish a new party, a move that surprised President Donald Trump, who mocked the idea.

Many see this move as a real threat to the Republican Party, especially given its fragile majority in Congress, while others questioned the new party's ability to overcome the federal obstacles and complex legal procedures entrenched by the two-party system.

Musk's announcement fulfilled a promise he made on his X platform that he would establish what he called ‘the America Party’ if Trump signed the new budget bill, which he considered to exacerbate the US fiscal deficit.

Political analysts believe that Musk's party is open to all possibilities and could have a profound impact on the political balance in the upcoming elections.

According to a poll Musk launched on X last June, 80% of 5.6 million participants supported the formation of the new party.

Third Party

On July 5, American billionaire Elon Musk announced the formation of the America Party, a day after he asked his followers on X whether a new political party should be established in the United States.

In a post on X, Musk said, “By a factor of 2 to 1, you want a new political party. Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom.”

According to the Financial Times, Musk did not provide any significant details about the launch of his political project, but he indicated his party's intention to gain seats in Congress and become a leading voice in key legislation.

It's too early to determine the extent of Musk's new party's influence on the US electoral scene, but the party's significant financial and advertising muscle positions it for a strong future role.

Next year's midterm elections will be the first test of the strength of the new party and its founder, Musk.

Musk has also pledged to spend whatever money is necessary to remove the House and Senate members who supported the controversial US budget bill.

Musk, who has a personal fortune estimated at approximately $405 billion, has previously demonstrated that he doesn't shy away from spending large sums when it comes to politics. He lavished $277 million on Trump's 2024 campaign.

However, Musk's recent foray into Wisconsin politics demonstrated the limits of wealth and celebrity in politics.

Musk spent $20 million to support his candidate for the state's Supreme Court, who was soundly defeated.

There's also no doubt that it's difficult to garner political support in America's powerhouse regions among voters who aren't part of the Silicon Valley-based tech group.

Musk, who was named Time magazine's Person of the Year in 2021, was widely admired by Americans, but his popularity plummeted after he joined the Trump administration.

Legal Challenges

It remains unclear to what extent Musk has taken legal steps to establish the party, which requires registration with the Federal Election Commission.

However, CBS News noted that establishing a new political party in the U.S. is a complex and extremely expensive undertaking, one that only the world's richest person could undertake.

Laws vary from state to state. The first step is to register the party in a state, then collect signatures representing between 0.33% and 2% of each state's population.

The party must also form a national committee, develop a platform, register with the Federal Election Commission, and then nominate official candidates for legal recognition.

These procedures could cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Despite these challenges, it is believed that money will not be an obstacle to Musk's political ambitions.

However, the challenge lies not only in funding, but also in preparing for the legal confrontation with the two major parties.

Musk's efforts are expected to face fierce opposition from both Democrats and Republicans, including challenges to the signature collection process in each state, which will require significant time and litigation costs.

These measures could complicate the new party's nomination process for the 2026 midterm elections.

Musk's Ambitions

In a Truth Social post, Trump reacted to the idea of Musk's new party, saying it would cause total disruption and chaos.

The president also said Musk is off the rails and was becoming a train wreck over the past five weeks.

He threatened that if Musk continued to manipulate the American political scene, he would send him back to South Africa, where he was born.

Trump's former advisor, Steve Bannon, accused Musk of trying to stab the pro-Trump grassroots movement in the back, while also renewing his call to strip Musk of his US citizenship and deport him.

It's worth noting that the decision to form a new party is a suitable way out for Musk, especially after Trump threatened to impose severe penalties on his companies if he decided to support and fund his Democratic opponents.

Trump had also threatened last week to cut billions of dollars in federal government subsidies to Musk's companies.

In turn, Musk tried to send a clear message to Trump that he is not planning an all-out challenge to the political system, but rather a concentrated influence in swing districts.

He said that “any fledgling party can focus on just two or three seats in the Senate and eight to ten in the House of Representatives,” enough seats to make a legislative difference on controversial issues.

However, Republican Party insiders believe that Musk's establishment of a new party could affect their majority in next year's midterm elections.

If Musk's strategy of focusing on swing races where Republican support is declining succeeds, it could affect the composition of Congress in 2026 and, consequently, Trump's ability to implement his legislative agenda.

Analysts indicate that Musk is targeting independents and those frustrated with the policies of both major parties, as well as millions of Americans who feel marginalized by extreme political polarization and increasing ideological extremism.

Musk possesses exceptional tools of influence, from his X platform, which has over 200 million followers, to his immense wealth, to his public image as a rebel against traditional systems.

Analysts believe that Musk, with his financial and media power, his widespread popularity, and his record of turning ambitions into reality, may be an exception and could reshape, or at least influence, the American political scene.

Political Impact

In an interview with Newsweek, experts believe that the new party could lead to a split in the right-wing vote, giving the Democratic Party an opportunity to consolidate its gains in the House of Representatives and Senate, especially given the narrow Republican majority in both chambers.

Others, however, believe that Musk's party poses no serious threat to the Republican Party, noting that the real split that could open the way for a third party could come from within the Democratic Party, especially with the growing gap between progressives and traditional Democrats.

According to the newspaper, the impact of the America Party at the federal level remains unclear, given the lack of details about the party's structure and the political figures who might join it, although some public figures have shown interest in the new political project.

Data and polls indicate that approximately 40% of US voters do not feel a true affiliation with either of the two traditional parties, reflecting a pent-up desire for a third alternative.

However, the American electoral system—based on winner takes all in most states—makes it difficult for any third party to gain meaningful representation.

The New York State Conservative Party in the 1970s and the Farmer-Labor Party in the 1930s were the only two minor parties to win seats in the Senate in the last century.

Small parties had greater success in the House of Representatives at the beginning of the 20th century, but they have won only one seat since the 1950s.

It is worth noting that the two-party system dominates US political life, despite the existence of numerous parties in the U.S. and the fact that party laws do not prevent the formation of new parties.

Third parties, such as the Green Party and the Libertarians, have long tried to make inroads into US politics, but their influence has remained limited and marginal compared to the two major parties.

The most recent of these efforts was the No Labels movement, which sought to present an alternative to Trump and then-President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election.

For his part, Washington-based activist Omar Taha told Al-Estiklal that the clash between Trump and Musk is not merely a personal dispute, but rather an indicator of profound shifts in US politics, pointing out that the next phase may witness more tech populism versus political populism.

He also noted that Trump may escalate his threats, especially if he feels Musk is alienating a significant audience of young people and entrepreneurs.

“With the ongoing tension between Musk and Trump, the coming days appear crucial in determining whether Musk’s party will become a real political project or merely a passing media stunt,” he concluded.