Islam, Christianity and Homosexuality: Can the Next Pope Bridge a Divided Vatican?

Although the late Pope Francis is remembered as one of the most outspoken critics of Israeli Occupation’s massacres in Palestine and a strong advocate for dialogue with the Islamic world, his death on 21 April 2025 may ignite tensions within the Catholic Church over the direction he set; tensions many believe the new pope will be forced to resolve.

Francis was also known for his more lenient stances on doctrinal issues, including his openness towards homosexuals and divorced people, views that stirred controversy within the Church but remained largely contained during his papacy. With his passing, many expect these debates to resurface.

He maintained close ties with the Muslim world and supported interfaith dialogue, forging a personal friendship with the Grand Imam of al-Azhar, Ahmed el-Tayeb, who mourned him as “a brother in humanity” and praised his positions on Gaza and Islamophobia.

However, fears are growing that a new pope with an anti-Islamic outlook could revive the confrontational policies of earlier pontiffs, reigniting tensions with the Muslim world.

One of the key battles facing the incoming pontiff will be whether to preserve Francis’s legacy of outreach or shift back toward a more distant, conservative posture. Meanwhile, debates over homosexuality inclusion are expected to reignite within the Vatican, alongside broader efforts to address the Church’s waning influence in the West.

As the cardinals prepare to select a new pope, speculation swirls: will the white smoke rise over the Vatican carrying unity, or will it mask a deepening rift over the Church’s future?

The Conclave Power Struggle

Pope Francis, elected in March 2013 as the 266th pope, marked the end of an era. His death has triggered one of the most secretive and symbolically charged events in the Church: the election of his successor.

This process, known as the conclave, brings together 120 voting cardinals from around the Catholic world in a sealed, solemn gathering at the Sistine Chapel. Over a span of 15 to 20 days, up to four secret ballots are held daily until one candidate secures a two-thirds majority.

Behind the closed doors of the conclave lies a web of alliances, rivalries, and political intrigue, often dramatized in films such as ‘The Two Popes and Conclave.’ 

According to USA Today, “The balloting process is not a raucous affair but solemn and filled with ritual.”

Francis’s papacy, shaped by his background from the Global South, clashed with many traditionalist cardinals from Europe and the U.S., as he disrupted the unwritten power structure long dominated by Western bishops.

His reforms, especially allowing communion for divorced and remarried Catholics, sparked open defiance from conservatives, who viewed such moves as heretical. 

As early as September 2017, a group of conservative clerics openly accused Francis of heresy, fuelling speculation of a growing rift within the Catholic Church. Anonymous memos attributed to unnamed cardinals harshly criticized the pontiff, according to The Guardian.

The first of these letters, signed under the pseudonym “Demos,” was later revealed by CNN on April 23, 2025, to have been written by Cardinal George Pell of Australia, appointed by Francis to oversee the Vatican’s finances. It leveled sharp criticisms at the Pope’s leadership.

A follow-up missive, penned under the name “Demos II,” accused Francis of authoritarianism and urged the next pope to “restore truths that have been obscured or lost among many Christians.”

In 2019, a group of prominent theologians and clergy went further, publishing a 20-page open letter that directly accused the Pope of heresy.

As The Guardian noted, Francis’s death is expected to lay bare the long-simmering power struggle within the Vatican. The paper warned that a “ferocious battle for the future of the church will be played out with the highest of stakes within the sanctity of the Sistine Chapel,” and even raised the possibility of an “anti-Francis” pope emerging from the conclave.

Multiple factions, well-organized and often well-funded, are believed to be working behind the scenes to influence the vote. Many of these groups have strong ties to the United States, according to CNN.

Among the leading contenders to succeed Francis are Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State; Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, head of missionary outreach; and Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, Archbishop of Bologna.

Other names gaining traction include Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea, the former head of the Vatican’s liturgy office, and Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, a key figure in the Church’s social justice efforts.

Also in the running is Cardinal Peter Erdo, a staunch defender of Catholic orthodoxy, seen by some as a figure who might seek to roll back the Francis era and restore the conservative path set by John Paul II and Benedict XVI. Cardinal Marc Ouellet, previously shortlisted in both 2005 and 2013, is again being discussed. As former head of the Vatican’s bishop-selection body, he remains a powerful and experienced candidate.

While recent decades have seen the papacy open to leaders from outside Italy, the historical dominance of Italians in the role still casts a long shadow: of the 266 popes to date, 217 have been Italian.

A Ticking Time Bomb

The new pope faces a series of internal and external challenges, starting with continuing the reforms initiated by his predecessor, some of which, such as the recognition of same-sex unions and acceptance of divorce, have stirred deep controversy. These challenges also include handling ethical and financial scandals within the Church.

More critically, he will need to address the Church’s waning influence in Europe and across the globe amid growing secularism, declining Christian belief, and scandals involving priests that have driven many away from the faith.

Although Pope Francis appointed many of the cardinals who will vote in the conclave, a significant number of them opposed his stance on homosexuality inclusion. Historian Darius von Guttner Sporzynski of the Australian Catholic University noted in a Conversation article on April 22, 2025, that many of these cardinals come from traditionally conservative societies and are likely to favor a candidate who upholds traditional Church teachings, potentially reversing Francis’s reforms.

One of the most controversial of those reforms was Francis’s official approval on December 18, 2023, allowing priests to bless same-sex couples—an unprecedented move that contradicted his earlier position that “God cannot bless sin.” At the time, the Vatican described the decision as “historic.”

Then, on April 8, 2024, the Vatican published a new document titled Dignitas Infinita (Infinite Dignity), affirming human dignity and formally recognizing “same-sex relationships and marriages.”

Notably, the document was framed around general moral values to justify the Church’s shift, a move that drew ridicule from some activists and sparked renewed backlash against the papacy.

The Catholic Church in Italy also sparked controversy on January 10, 2025, when it released a document addressing the “sexual identity of priests,” which was widely interpreted as an implicit endorsement of allowing homosexual clergy to serve openly in the Church.

The Bishops' Conference of Italy issued what it called “updated guidelines” that, according to Italian media, implicitly signaled acceptance of gay men as bishops.

Gerhard Ludwig Muller, a German cardinal Francis appointed, clashed with the late pope on many issues, including “blasting the decree to allow the blessing of gay couples as ‘heresy.’”

Catholic historians suggest that the cardinals may seek a centrist figure in the upcoming papal election to avoid deepening internal divisions that Pope Francis had long managed to contain.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, is viewed as a viable candidate for leading a transitional period of calm and reconciliation, navigating between those advocating progressive reforms, such as homosexuality inclusion, and those committed to preserving traditional Church teachings.

Western media outlets consider Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle the frontrunner. If elected, he is expected to continue Pope Francis’s progressive agenda, including the controversial policies embracing the homosexual community.

Le Monde reported on April 22, 2025, that key issues awaiting the next pope include sexual abuse, same-sex relations, and the Church’s response to the Israeli war on Gaza.

The paper noted that as the conclave convenes, the cardinals will be forced to confront the Church’s mounting challenges, including how to address the fallout from sexual abuse scandals and the internal divisions they’ve caused.

Among the most pressing files on the next pope’s desk will be the Church’s response to sexual violence and the handling of homosexuality within its ranks.

This deeply sensitive issue led Pope Francis to mandate the reporting of sexual abuse cases to the Vatican and establish a centralized system to receive complaints, despite resistance from local churches that preferred to keep such matters hidden.

During Pope Francis’s 12-year tenure, deep divisions emerged within the Vatican over disputes between progressives and conservatives on issues such as liturgical tradition, moral teachings, and the acceptance of homosexuality, undermining the unity of the Church.

Decline of the Church

Beyond the controversies surrounding homosexuality inclusion, the Vatican is increasingly concerned about the Church’s declining influence in the West and growing public disengagement, especially as recent years have seen a strategic shift toward Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

A more pressing concern is the significant drop in Catholic participation in sacraments such as baptism and priesthood. Fewer individuals are pursuing clerical life, while others who do sometimes display “deviant behavior,” leading to scandals involving misconduct and sexual abuse within church communities.

Reports from both Church sources and Western media suggest that this trend, alongside waning faith, emptying pews, and a shrinking pool of candidates for the priesthood, will rank high on the next pope’s agenda.

Le Monde highlighted this disengagement, noting that in Germany alone, over half a million people left the Church in 2022, effectively renouncing Christianity.

In France, although there has been an increase in adult baptisms, it has not been sufficient to offset the overall decline, as society continues to move toward secularism.

One of the urgent tasks for the new pope and the College of Cardinals will be to find ways to reconnect Western populations with Catholicism, an area where Pope Francis was seen by some as having fallen short.

Vox reported on April 21, 2025, that one of the major challenges for the upcoming papacy is the ongoing retreat of Christianity in North America and Western Europe.

In contrast, Christianity is expanding across the Global South, particularly in Latin America, Asia, and Africa, driven by high birth rates and religious conversions. Estimates indicate that by 2050, 78% of the world’s Christians will live in these regions.

According to Vatican projections, 40% of the global Christian population will be in Africa by 2050, positioning the continent as the future heartland of Catholicism, while the Church is expected to continue its decline in Europe, as Vox notes.

Historically, the Vatican under more conservative popes maintained tense relations with Islam. In contrast, reformists like Pope Francis sought interfaith dialogue and reconciliation.

Francis’s predecessor, Benedict XVI, who resigned in 2013, provoked outrage in the Muslim world by offending Islamic teachings and disparaging the Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him), setting off a diplomatic crisis that Francis later attempted to heal through outreach to other faiths.

However, with the possibility of a more conservative pope ascending to the papacy, concerns are mounting over a renewed era of religious confrontation. The Vatican has still not formally condemned the Crusades or apologized to Muslims, despite having done so to the Jewish community.

If someone like Bishop Athanasius Schneider were to succeed Francis, renewed conflict with the Muslim world could arise. Schneider has claimed that Islam is invading Europe and warned against Europe becoming a Muslim continent.

The cardinal has also called for the expulsion of refugees, claiming they are not genuine refugees but part of a mass Islamic invasion of Europe. His remarks reflect growing anxiety over the decline of the Western Church and the rising number of Europeans converting to Islam, though his chances of becoming pope remain slim.