Israel’s Role as a Regional Proxy: How the U.S. Spurs Saudi Normalization and Arms Sales

In a shift from a three-year policy of pressuring Saudi Arabia to end the Yemen war, the U.S. State Department confirmed on August 9, 2024, that the Biden administration has decided to lift the ban on offensive weapons sales to Riyadh.

Several reasons have been cited for the resumption of U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia, including concerns that the Kingdom might turn to Russia or China for weapons.

Another factor is Washington’s desire to recover $15 million in previous debts from Saudi Arabia for U.S. assistance during the Yemen war, despite the Saudi royal family’s wealth exceeding $1.4 trillion, according to a report by The Intercept on August 12, 2024.

However, experts believe the primary reason for the renewed flow of U.S. arms to Saudi Arabia is its role in the broader security agreement between the two countries. As highlighted by Foreign Affairs magazine on August 2, this agreement is also linked to the issue of normalization with “Israel.”

Since Joe Biden took office in 2020, the U.S. has sought to withdraw from the Arab region and shift its focus to China and Europe (Ukraine).

To achieve this, Washington is considering leaving regional leadership to “Israel,” which hinges on a broad normalization strategy centered on Saudi-Israeli relations.

Regional Alternative

Although former President Donald Trump’s tenure was a golden era for Saudi Arabia and repressive regimes in Egypt and elsewhere, his decision to abandon the Kingdom and the traditional defense treaty on September 18, 2019, during the Yemen war, created a significant challenge for the U.S. later on.

The Biden administration sought to mitigate the impact of Trump leaving Saudi Arabia exposed to Yemeni missiles and drones and the withdrawal of Patriot missiles from the Kingdom. However, the fallout from the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi complicated Biden’s efforts.

As the influence of its allies grew, along with rising concerns over Israeli Occupation security, the Biden administration revisited plans to form an Arab-Israeli alliance or Mideast NATO, a coalition that would be impossible without Saudi involvement in normalization.

The plan was nearly complete, with Saudi-Israeli relations being cautiously prepared for the announcement. Saudi Arabia justified this by claiming it would receive an “Israeli commitment" to address the Palestinian state issue. On October 7, 2023, Operation al-Aqsa Flood took place, dealing a great deal of blow to the normalization project.

Although Politico confirmed on August 14, 2024, that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is committed to normalization, citing his fear of assassination once the deal is finalized, akin to the fate of former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat. 

Politico also highlighted that the covert normalization scheme with “Israel” includes multiple American commitments to the Saudis, such as security guarantees, assistance with a civilian nuclear program, and economic investments in sectors like technology.

Israeli political analyst Alon Ben-David summarized the importance of normalization through Maariv, a Hebrew-language newspaper, on August 16, 2024, stating, "The U.S. decision to lift the arms embargo on Saudi Arabia is an important signal that the path to normalization with the most important Arab state remains open."

“Normalization with Saudi Arabia could reposition us as leaders of a regional coalition, supported by the U.S., against the Iranian enemy."

Protective Umbrella

Washington’s insistence on this Saudi-Israeli normalization stems from a perception that sees “Israel” as the "regional alternative," expected to fill the void as the U.S. shifts its focus to other regions.

This means that Saudi Arabia’s search for American protection is closely tied to the normalization project with “Israel.”

Washington views the security of Israel and Saudi Arabia as mutually interdependent. However, Operation al-Aqsa flood has revealed vulnerabilities in the Israeli occupation, undermining its deterrent power and raising concerns within the Saudi regime.

American studies indicate that plans for a U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East were disrupted by Operation al-Aqsa Flood, highlighting its fragility and exposing weaknesses to the Arab states it aims to lead as a regional alternative to the United States.

There are also growing American fears about China, Russia, and Iran filling the vacuum left by the U.S. withdrawal, as seen in some Arab countries and the African Sahel region.

Despite Washington's efforts to establish Israel as a dominant force in the Middle East, Israeli analyst Alon Pinkas argues that Israel believes it is strong enough to assume this role on its own.

“However, the truth is that Tel Aviv has never been as dependent on the United States as it is now,” according to his article published in Haaretz on August 16, 2024.

This raises doubts about the Israeli Occupation’s ability to fulfill this role, let alone gain acceptance from Arab parties to lead the region within a “Mideast NATO” or any other framework.

Pinkas also noted that since October 7, 2024, Washington has deployed large forces to the Middle East three times to support "Israel" against Iran and its proxies, alongside providing substantial military aid. 

He highlighted the irony that under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the stronger "Israel" feels, the more it relies on the United States.

According to a survey published by Maariv on August 16, 2024, 57% of Israelis believe their country can withstand a multi-front attack if the U.S. joins the defense, while 29% think “Israel” can handle such an attack on its own.

‘Arab NATO’

Discussions about a “Mideast-Israeli NATO” began in 2022, particularly on June 24, when Jordan's King Abdullah II mentioned to CNBC that he would support forming a military alliance in the Middle East similar to NATO.

Before the Joe Biden administration's interest in a regional Arab-Israeli military alliance, Trump announced plans to create a Middle East Strategic Alliance, which observers quickly dubbed the “Mideast NATO,” according to Reuters on June 18, 2018.

The proposed alliance aimed to safeguard the region from the dual threats of “Iranian Shiite expansion” and “Sunni jihadism,” with Washington spearheading the effort.

However, this proposal made no progress, like previous similar initiatives.

After Tehran attacked “Israel” and several countries helped counter the drones and missiles launched from Iranian territory, the idea of a military alliance in the Middle East similar to NATO was revived.

Despite Saudi Arabia’s dedication to its long-standing alliance with the United States, which it views as crucial for regime protection and normalization, Western reports suggest that American plans diverge significantly.

American reports indicate that Washington is preparing to withdraw from the Middle East to concentrate on more politically, militarily, and strategically significant regions, such as the South China Sea and Eastern Europe, where the Russia-Ukraine war continues. 

The National Security Strategy released by President Joe Biden’s administration on October 12, 2022, underscores this shift, emphasizing the need to prioritize Europe and China over the Middle East.

Former President Trump had, also, emphasized this need before leaving office on October 9, 2019, stating that his country’s involvement in the Middle East was the worst decision in U.S. history, and if reelected, he might reinforce this stance.

During his visit to Saudi Arabia in June 2022, American and Israeli reports suggested that Biden aimed to shift the responsibility of protecting “Israel” to Arab normalization regimes.

This visit had a broader goal: to establish the foundations for Israeli Occupation’s leadership in the Arab region through security, economic, and political arrangements reflected in the normalization agreements, Egypt’s role in exporting Israeli gas to Europe, and military cooperation.

As the U.S. prepared for Iran's response to “Israel” following its incursions and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Yedioth Ahronoth on August 16, 2024, highlighted an anti-Iranian alliance.

The newspaper's political analyst Nahum Barnea reported that Washington had established a secondary alliance that includes all Israeli military branch leaders, the White House and its proxies, and Sunni Arab states, including Saudi Arabia.

In August 2023, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen wrote in The Wall Street Journal that a potential normalization deal between “Israel” and Saudi Arabia could pave the way for "true regional harmony.”

He argued that the agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia, which will be a key component of any normalization deal between Riyadh and Jerusalem, “will include an American guarantee to help maintain the security of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states against Iran.”

A Broader Game

The National Interest magazine reported that the U.S. push to strengthen relations between Saudi Arabia and “Israel” is not just about regional stability; “it’s a broader game on the grand chessboard of international politics.”

On February 10, 2024, the magazine highlighted that by integrating Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords, Washington aims to build a framework of shared interests and commercial and defense partnerships to curb China's growing influence in the region.

The United States is concerned about China’s intentions and is eager to establish a balance of power. The deployment of aircraft carriers, ships, and planes to the Eastern Mediterranean is not just about assisting Israel; it is also about preventing China from exploiting the regional vacuum and taking advantage of Israeli conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah, according to National Interest magazine.

A report by Politico confirmed that Saudi Arabia has assured the U.S. that it will not turn to China and Russia and will scale back its military and strategic ties with them.

However, in its coverage of the U.S.-Saudi security treaty, Foreign Affairs noted on August 2, 2024, that Washington should not ask Riyadh to cut ties with China and Russia if security cooperation is enhanced under the new agreement.

Gregory Gause, a professor of international affairs at the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University, wrote in the magazine: “Don't expect Riyadh to take Washington's side against China and Russia.”

Washington's goal in improving relations with Riyadh and committing to Saudi security is not just about moving toward a more stable Middle East, but also about closing off any possibility of China pulling Saudi Arabia into its sphere of influence, according to Gause.

However, the Saudis want to maintain some flexibility on the economic and political fronts given China's importance as a major energy buyer and Russia's role as a key energy producer, as Gause explained.

Even so, the professor noted that “Riyadh will have no problem signing a monogamous marriage with Washington on military and security issues, which is what it wants.”

At the same time, Saudi Arabia seeks flexibility in dealing with China, Russia, and even Iran on political and economic issues of significance to the Kingdom.