Iraq's Struggle for Militia Integration Amid U.S. Pressure and Iranian Influence

Iraq's Prime Minister al-Sudani confirmed the government's plan to monopolize weapons.
Amid growing U.S. pressure on Iraq to dismantle its armed militias, the Shiite Coordination Framework and the Iraqi government, which emerged from it, are seeking a solution that would satisfy Washington while saving Iran’s face.
Iran has suffered a strategic defeat through its regional proxies, following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the assassination of its key leaders after the recent confrontation with “Israel.”
The United States has urged the Iraqi government to disband the militias itself, warning that the matter "will be resolved by force" if necessary, as revealed by Ibrahim al-Sumaidaie, political advisor to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani, during a television interview on December 16, 2024.
This was echoed by Parliament Speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, who, in a December 30 interview, stated that "U.S. President-elect Donald Trump had stressed to the Iraqi Prime Minister the necessity of restricting weapons to the state," adding that "the government is working on this."

The Election Option
With the parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2025 fast approaching, Iraqi media have begun to raise the prospect of including a clause in the forthcoming amendments to the election law that would bar armed factions from participating in the next electoral process.
Most of these militias are part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which hold seats in the current parliament and have ministers in the government.
Among them are Minister of Higher Education, Naeem al-Aboudi, a member of the Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq militia; Minister of Labor, Ahmed al-Asadi, leader of the Jund al-Imam militia; and Minister of Transport, Razzaq Muhaybis al-Saadawi, a senior figure in the Badr militia.
Although he refrained from directly answering a question about the feasibility of such a clause being implemented in the upcoming elections to integrate the militias, a senior figure within the Coordination Framework, Ammar al-Hakim, confirmed during a television interview on January 2, 2025, that he had received information from Washington suggesting plans to target the armed factions.
Previously, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani had stated that there was no justification for weapons to remain outside the state’s control.
Following the arrangement of Iraq’s relationship with the international coalition (in the fight against ISIS), he said, militias must either integrate into the security apparatus or transition into political activity, emphasizing that this was the right path for building the state.
On the issue of militia disarmament, al-Sudani said during a television interview on December 19, 2024, that "there is a broad political consensus among most factions regarding the process of the international coalition’s withdrawal and the restriction of weapons to the state at the same time."
"There is a government with an executive program, which is being implemented clearly and transparently. We are committed to the political agreement with all the parties that make up the government, and we are engaging with all political forces. This is happening for the first time, unlike previous governments where the honeymoon phase ended right after formation," al-Sudani noted.
On December 27, al-Sudani reiterated during another interview that restricting weapons to the state was a core component of the government’s program.
He stressed that the government was pursuing a clear path, engaging in responsible national dialogue to achieve this goal, and working in coordination with political forces to do so.

‘Another Trick’
Regarding the possibility of dismantling the militias through electoral law, Iraqi researcher Latif al-Mahdawi dismissed the idea, suggesting instead that the Coordination Framework and the government might resort to what he described as “another trick” to keep the door open for the militias’ continued existence.
Al-Mahdawi explained to Al-Estiklal that "it is possible for these militias to withdraw from their strongholds in predominantly Sunni cities, particularly in Jurf al-Sakhar, al-Qaim, and Samarra, and dismantle their camps and headquarters."
"These militias might push their leadership and educated members to run in the upcoming parliamentary elections, and may accept some government decisions, provided they do not involve punitive measures or the freezing of their assets."
"The proposal by the Prime Minister for them to join the army or police is unrealistic, as they would still retain their weapons, meaning they could be reconstituted under the command of their religious or political leaders, whether by religious fatwa or otherwise. It wouldn’t be difficult for them," al-Mahdawi stated.
Meanwhile, researcher Moayyad al-Douri noted the "shift in the rhetoric of both al-Sudani and Ammar al-Hakim, becoming more conciliatory toward the ongoing and upcoming transformations in the region, including sending reassuring signals to the West and, to a degree, distancing themselves from the Iranian camp."
Al-Douri told Al-Estiklal that "the reality is that these shifts will only occur with Iran’s green light, as Tehran seeks to avoid further shocks, especially given its current state of exhaustion and defeat."
"Iran, which has close ties with most of these Iraqi militias, is using all of its leverage to negotiate with the United States, aiming to reach an understanding on the sanctions imposed on it since 2018 and to have its frozen funds abroad released."
"The upcoming Iraqi parliamentary elections will be shaped, in a calculated manner, by both Shiite and Iranian interests to accommodate these changes, with a shift away from the pro-Iranian rhetoric toward more liberal, civilian Shiite directions."
"The future landscape of Shiite political forces would see competition between al-Sudani and certain Shiite figures who show a Western inclination or prioritize national affiliations."
"Iraq’s avoidance of Israeli strikes so far has been the result of halting militia attacks on Israel and the cessation of discussions about the withdrawal of US troops, except for isolated, ineffective voices. This suggests a shift toward preserving the Shiite-led political order," al-Douri noted.
The last statement issued by what is known as the "Islamic Resistance (Shiite) in Iraq" was on November 21, 2024, in which it claimed responsibility for an attack using drone aircraft targeting southern occupied Palestinian territories, after claiming responsibility for approximately 316 attacks against Israel, 94 of which reached inside its borders.

‘Qaani's Message’
In related developments, local media outlets have revealed that the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, recently visited Iraq and met with armed factions.
Reports indicated that one of the topics discussed was the potential restructuring of these groups, with the possibility of transforming some into political forces or alliances.
On January 6, 2024, Shafaq News reported that “General Qaani delivered a message to Baghdad during his brief visit, stating that his country has no objections to any decision regarding the Iraqi armed factions," adding that these factions must "adhere to the decisions of the Iraqi government."
An informed source, who wished to remain anonymous, told the agency that "Qaani’s visit to Baghdad lasted only a few hours, during which he met with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani to discuss regional developments."
“Qaani assured al-Sudani that Tehran does not want either itself or Baghdad to become part of the ongoing conflict and war."
"Qaani met with leaders of the armed factions, where they discussed the security situation in the region, particularly developments in Syria and their impact on the Resistance Axis forces."
“He urged the factions to stand behind the Iraqi government during this phase and to comply with its decisions," the source continued.
Qaani’s visit to Baghdad and his meetings with several faction leaders and Iraqi officials came just days before al-Sudani’s scheduled trip to Iran on January 9, 2024.
A statement from al-Sudani’s office on January 4 outlined that the visit would focus on bilateral relations between the two countries and ways to enhance them, particularly in light of the achievements made during Iranian President Masoud Bezhkishan’s visit to Baghdad in September 2024, as well as the ongoing regional developments.
Sources
- Exclusive: Iran gives the Sudanese the green light to manage the future of the factions. [Arabic]
- After developments in Lebanon and Syria: Is the solution to the Shiite militias in Iraq close? [Arabic]
- Sudanese gives the factions the choice between integration or political action: There is no justification for their existence outside the state. [Arabic]
- Is Israel planning to target the leaders of the factions in Iraq? [Arabic]
- Mahmoud Al-Mashhadani: Trump asked Sudanese to restrict weapons to the state in Iraq. [Arabic]
- Why have attacks by Iraqi factions on occupied territories stopped? [Arabic]
- Sudanese: Restricting weapons to the state is a priority in the government’s program. [Arabic]