Indian Expansionism Alarms the Chinese Dragon: Will New Delhi Dampen Beijing's Ambitions?

Over the past decade, India has emerged as one of the most prominent rising powers in Asia and the world. It has become a center of influence and a parallel pole to the Chinese giant.

This became evident when India hosted the G20 summit on September 9, 2023, in New Delhi. Top world leaders gathered at the Bharat Mandapam in Pragati Maidan, the capital city.

However, the major earthquake at this summit was China's announcement of President Xi Jinping's absence.

India is striving to absorb and address the shock, as Beijing's announcement was unexpected, especially since it was the first time Xi had missed this summit since taking office in 2013.

 

Potential Escalation

The 18th G20 summit is a significant event for India, as it marks the first time the G20 summit is held in India and in South Asia. However, it also signifies India's growing importance, which threatens the strongest power in Asia, China, and the second global power in various aspects, including population size, economic growth, and military development.

Beijing has adopted multiple strategies to curb India's rise, leading to repeated border clashes and casualties, with frequent warnings of a potential catastrophic war between the two nuclear-armed nations.

Recent history includes a real war that erupted between the two countries over disputed territories along the approximately 3,000-kilometer-long Himalayan border. The war, known as the Sino–Indian War, broke out on October 20, 1962, and ended in China's victory, making it a conflict susceptible to renewal at any time.

On September 1, 2023, The Times revealed that Beijing is accelerating the construction of its network of underground bunkers and tunnels in disputed areas along the border with India.

It anticipated that this move may raise the possibility of military escalation between the two nuclear neighbors.

The satellite images showed Chinese construction activities in eastern Ladakh, including new airports, helipads, missile bases, roads, and bridges along the disputed border.

The American satellite company Maxar Technologies also revealed a new set of infrastructure in another disputed area called Aksai Chin, approximately 40 miles from the border.

It exposed bunkers and tunnels being dug into the hillside, which experts say are designed to protect Chinese weapons and forces from potential Indian airstrikes.

The British newspaper quoted retired Indian Army General Rakesh Sharma as saying that "such infrastructure indicates preparations for an eventuality of hostilities," adding that China has been constructing roads, oil pipelines, communication systems, military housing, and equipment depots over the years.

 

Ongoing Tensions

In 2020, the Chinese legislature passed a law emphasizing the need to enhance coordination between border defense and social and economic development in border areas. This came in response to escalating disputes with India over a map released by China that included an Indian state and a disputed border region within its borders.

On August 29, 2023, Beijing released a map that included the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh and the Aksai Chin plateau within China's borders. This move placed the government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi under increased pressure from opposition parties, including the Indian National Congress.

Tensions had previously erupted in May 2020 when Chinese forces crossed into eastern Ladakh to seize strategic positions.

Confrontations with the Indian army occurred at multiple locations along the border, including military clashes near Pangong Lake in Ladakh and the Nathu-La pass between Sikkim and the Tibet region.

While soldiers from both sides were killed, the number of Indian army casualties exceeded 20, bringing the two countries closer to war.

However, international intervention prevented a full-scale conflict, though intermittent clashes continued.

These volatile border disputes represent a deeper crisis between the two neighbors, as India's ascent in various fields poses a concern for Beijing.

One of the factors that makes India a thorn in China's side is its population. China had long been the most populous country on Earth until April 25, 2023, when the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in New York announced that India had become the world's most populous nation, with 1,425,775,850 people, surpassing China's population for the first time in history.

Given the demographic changes, the question arises: Can India's GDP growth surpass that of China in the future?

This question was addressed in a report by the British consulting firm PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) on March 18, 2021. It stated that by 2050, six of the seven largest economies in the world would be emerging markets, led by China and India, respectively.

It added that while it's unlikely that India will be "the next China" in terms of global GDP, it will certainly have a fair shot as a potential emerging great power.

The report continued, stating that India would be a strong competitor to China, which had long dominated markets, especially in Asia, due to its large population and the increasing strength of India's growing population.

 

The U.S. Vision

Another factor that makes India a thorn in China's side is the U.S. strategy towards India, aimed at bolstering it to counter China's expansion.

This was explained in a report by The Independent on May 19, 2021, which stated that no one is more important to the United States than India.

Washington is looking for strategies to quickly counter the rising China, so India is the most important country, the only one that can match China's enormous population and provide a low-cost labor force.

The Independent also emphasized that India's significance extends beyond its population, as it possesses a deep pool of world-class talent, which positions it as a formidable player in the power equation.

In another report by USA Today on August 9, 2023, it was mentioned that the United States and India share strong political, cultural, and linguistic ties, and both countries view China as a military and geopolitical rival.

The report also noted that U.S. and Indian interests don't always align, but areas of synergy exist, including shifting manufacturing from China to India.

Washington is the largest market for Indian information technology services providers, which collectively had sales of around $50 billion to the United States in 2020.

According to the report, American IT companies like Accenture, IBM, Deloitte, and DXC conduct a significant portion of their operations in India, collectively employing approximately 400,000 people there.

On the military front, during his visit to Washington on June 25, 2023, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi concluded multiple deals to purchase American weapons. Modi met with U.S. President Joe Biden to discuss defense agreements and partnerships.

Commenting on these developments, Jonathan Guyer, senior foreign policy writer for Vox, raised the question of why the United States is selling a substantial amount of weapons to India. He answered that it's aimed at curbing China's influence on the global stage, as Washington sees New Delhi as a potential counterbalance to Beijing in the future.