In Trump's Second Term: New Scenarios for Relations with Turkiye's Erdogan

In January 2024, former U.S. President Donald Trump makes his return to the White House after securing a victory in the presidential election, amid widespread discussions and concerns about the shape of his upcoming policies toward many countries around the world.

Experts in Turkiye anticipate a new chapter in US-Turkiye relations, with Ankara continuing to be a strategic partner for Washington and an ally within NATO.

Although tensions have arisen between the NATO allies in the past, Trump's victory opens the door for discussions on various scenarios regarding the future of their relations.

Erdogan's Congratulations

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan congratulated Trump on X, stating, “I congratulate my friend Donald Trump, who won the presidential election in the U.S. after a great struggle and was reelected.”

In this new era, Erdogan said he hopes US-Turkiye relations grow stronger and that regional and global crises and wars, especially the genocide in Palestine and the Russia-Ukraine war, will come to an end.

“I believe that more efforts will be made for a fairer world. I hope the elections will be auspicious for the friendly and allied people of the U.S. and all humanity,” he added.

The following day, Erdogan called Trump on the phone and expressed his intention to strengthen cooperation between Turkiye and the United States in the upcoming period.

“Trump’s presidency of the United States will greatly affect the political and military balances in the Middle East. Mr Trump cutting off the arms support provided to Israel could be a good start to stop the Israeli aggression in Palestinian and Lebanese lands,”  Erdogan stated on November 8.

Historically, US-Turkiye relations have evolved since the late 18th century, with the start of maritime trade to and from Turkish Mediterranean ports.

The first contacts between the Ottoman Empire and the United States were established during that period.

Diplomatic relations between the United States and the Turkish Republic were formalized with the exchange of notes on February 17, 1927.

After World War II, their relations rapidly developed, and the two countries were linked within NATO, contributing to the promotion of peace and stability in Europe.

Today, US-Turkiye relations are multifaceted and characterized by intensive communication, given regional and global developments.

Despite differing views on issues like the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Syria and Iraq, Fethullah Gulen's organization, sanctions, and other matters, there is significant common ground on many regional and global challenges. Dialogue between the two countries remains active and ongoing.

Justice Development Party and the U.S.

Examining the history of relations between the United States and Turkiye, it becomes clear that these ties have often lacked a foundation of mutual interests.

Since the beginning of their relationship, Turkiye has been placed within a framework of bilateral constraints that have hindered any unwanted moves by the U.S.

As a result of this unequal relationship, Turkiye has suffered many losses and continues to pay the price.

Turkiye's strategic geographic location is noteworthy, as it borders Europe to the northwest, Russia to the northeast, the Middle East and Africa to the south, and the Caucasus region to the east.

It can be said that the U.S. interest in Turkiye since the Cold War has primarily been tied to its attractive location.

During that period, Turkiye was used as a tool to encircle Russia, and today it is exploited to achieve U.S. objectives in the Middle East, despite difficulties in achieving those goals.

On another note, relations between the two countries have experienced a major crisis due to the increasing influence of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) since 2005 and the escalation of its violent operations in Turkiye.

At that time, Turkiye was hoping for a joint operation with the U.S. against the PKK in Iraq, but those expectations were not fully realized, and there was little significant U.S. support for cooperation on this issue.

Although the crisis between the two sides partially eased during the second term of George Bush’s administration, Turkiye—when seen today—still faces threats from the PKK along its southern borders, with U.S. support.

It can be said that Turkiye's distrust in its relationship with the U.S. stems from issues that are among Ankara's most pressing concerns.

The U.S. support for the PKK's affiliates in Syria is seen as a sign of Washington’s abandonment of Turkiye.

On the other hand, this support sends a clear message to Turkiye, reflecting U.S. fears of its more independent and free movements, as well as its cooperation with countries in the Middle East.

Observers suggest that it is important for Turkiye to remain a state that is nurtured in times of hardship and allowed to flourish during periods of growth.

Trump’s First Term

The US-Turkiye relationship experienced a turbulent period during the years of Donald Trump’s presidency from 2017 to 2021.

Trump’s term began months after the failed coup attempt in Turkiye on July 15, 2016, orchestrated by the Gulenist terrorist organization, whose leader, Fethullah Gulen, was residing in the U.S.

As a result, relations went through one of their most difficult phases, despite Trump’s interest in fostering ties with Ankara and his good relationship with President Erdogan, who visited the White House twice in 2017 and 2019.

Trump imposed severe sanctions on Turkiye, worsening its economic crises; some of his actions and statements, which disregarded diplomatic protocols, displeased Ankara.

One of the most significant crises during that period was the case of Pastor Brunson, the Russian S-400 missile defense system, and U.S. military support for the Syrian Kurdish People's Defense Units (YPG).

Amid tensions regarding northern Syria, a letter from Trump to Erdogan, sent on October 9, 2019—the day Turkiye launched Operation Peace Spring—was leaked to the media.

In the letter, Trump addressed the Brunson issue, which emerged in the summer of 2018, stemming from the U.S. refusal to meet Turkiye's request for the extradition of Fethullah Gulen, who was accused of planning the coup attempt.

Pastor Andrew Craig Brunson, who had been residing in Izmir, was arrested in December 2016 on charges of military espionage and attempting to overthrow the constitutional order.

Upon taking office, Trump raised the Brunson case multiple times and intensified efforts to secure his release starting in 2018.

In response, Erdogan suggested a reciprocal deal, saying, “They [the U.S.] say, hand the priest back to us. You also have a priest [Fethullah Gulen]. Give him to us.”

When Turkiye refused to release Brunson, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Turkish ministers.

Trump also signed a decision to raise tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from Turkiye, leading to an economic crisis that caused a significant depreciation of the Turkish lira.

Turkiye's purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system intensified the crisis with the U.S. even further.

Although Trump blamed the previous Obama administration and expressed sympathy for Erdogan, he still imposed sanctions on Turkiye.

In his second term, Trump is expected to pursue a policy that seeks to maintain balance in both strategic partnership and diplomatic relations between the two countries.

A shift in the U.S. toward a more positive stance could lay the groundwork for a long-lasting alliance, while growing tensions may signal the start of a new era of strained relations and diverging interests.

What’s on the Table?

During the first term of Donald Trump’s presidency, US-Turkiye relations became increasingly complex due to diverging policies over northern Syria.

While Washington cooperated with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Ankara launched Operation Peace Spring in 2019 against these forces.

Turkiye sees the Syrian Kurdish YPG, the backbone of the SDF, as an extension of the PKK, which it classifies as a terrorist organization.

As a result, Ankara reacted strongly to the Trump administration, much like it did with the Obama administration, over the U.S. collaboration with the SDF and the PKK.

On May 9, 2017, just before President Erdogan’s visit to Washington, Trump instructed the Pentagon to directly arm the SDF and the PKK.

On December 19, 2018, the Republican president ordered the full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria following a phone call with Erdogan.

This decision sparked a political uproar in Washington and led to the resignation of then-Defense Secretary James Mattis and the U.S. special envoy to fight ISIS, Brett McGurk, who had strong ties with the SDF and the PKK.

However, Trump was persuaded to slow and organize the withdrawal, temporarily halting the process.

It can be said that this issue will remain a major item on the agenda of Turkish-American relations.

Other important issues include policies surrounding the Armenian “genocide” allegations, restrictions on the sale of F-35 fighter jets, sanctions imposed on Turkiye for purchasing the Russian S-400 missile systems, the extradition of Gulen movement members, the Cyprus issue, and increased U.S. support for “Israel.”

In this context, there is growing speculation that Trump might support “Israel” and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu more than the current administration under Joe Biden, potentially increasing tensions between the U.S. and Turkiye.

Due to differing views on issues such as Iran and Palestine, relations between the two countries may become more complicated.

At the same time, Trump's increasing statements about ending the war in Ukraine are drawing Ankara's attention, while the United States' stance on “Israel” remains a key issue closely monitored by Turkiye.

Focus on Solutions

A new analysis from the Turkish National Intelligence Academy titled “U.S. Election Could Redefine Turkiye's Alliances” discussed this sensitive issue.

Indicators suggest a strong leadership chemistry between Erdogan and Trump, with both men focusing on solutions. While this relationship did not alter the general trajectory of direct relations between 2016 and 2020, as seen in the case of the S-400, direct communication between them facilitated the effective delivery of Ankara’s messages to the White House, according to the analysis.

The military constraints on Iran and “Israel” can be considered positive developments aligned with Turkiye’s interests. If Trump supports Netanyahu in adopting a more aggressive stance against Iran, this could present regional opportunities for Turkiye.

Such opportunities include enhancing dialogue with the Syrian government, expanding Turkiye’s operations in the Qandil and Sulaymaniyah regions, and reducing obstacles to supporting the Zangezur corridor in the Caucasus.

The Academy noted, however, that this scenario is closely tied to Russia’s strategic preferences in the region and the Israeli Occupation’s stance toward the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the PKK.

Trump’s pragmatic approach may bring both opportunities and risks for Turkiye in its relations with the United States. By focusing on interests that align with Washington’s regional policies, Turkiye can address some thorny issues, such as restrictions on its defense industry and U.S. support for the SDF.

Achieving this will require skillful use of diplomatic channels and strengthening strategic cooperation. However, given the unpredictability of Trump’s policies and the lack of institutional stability, Turkiye must embrace a flexible, multi-dimensional approach to diplomacy, the analysis said.

Better Than Biden

Hasan Unal, a professor at Baskent University in Ankara, told Al-Estiklal that “Trump can establish normal relations with Erdogan, unlike Biden.”

“Biden was, in every sense, antagonistic toward Turkiye and the Turkish people. He opposed Turkiye on several issues and never held a meeting with Erdogan in Washington. Even at NATO summits, he avoided meeting with him unless it was absolutely necessary.”

“It can be said that US-Turkiye relations would be far better during Trump’s presidency compared to Biden’s,” Unal said.

“Trump is likely to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria and Iraq and end his support for the PKK. I don’t believe he would take an adversarial stance toward Turkiye on issues like Cyprus and Greece as Biden did.”

“I don’t think the deep state in the U.S. under Trump would continue its anti-Turkiye policies regarding the PKK and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF),” he added.

“While Trump seems to support Israel, it’s unlikely he’ll push for a war with Iran. However, he may find it difficult to strike the right balance on this issue.”

Regarding the Palestinian issue, Unal predicted that Trump would propose a return to the Abraham Accords, “but I believe implementing this agreement will not be easy.”