How the U.S. Presidential Election Results Affect Africa

U.S. presidential elections have a major impact on every region of the world, but historically, they have been less significant in Africa, where the fundamental US approach to the continent has not changed significantly despite a succession of Republican and Democratic presidents.

Since the Bill Clinton administration, US policy toward Africa has followed a similar pattern based on distinctive development programs, ambitious talk about democracy and human rights, and ever-growing security partnerships, which has maintained the relative stability of US-African relations.

In a report on the future of US relations with the continent if any of the candidates to succeed Biden are elected, an Italian newspaper confirmed that both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are still forgetting to address African issues despite the approaching presidential elections on November 5.

The recent withdrawal of US troops from Niger after political protests and Chad’s threats to end security cooperation highlight the fragility of US influence in the continent.

U.S. Promises

Hurricane Milton, which hit Florida in October 2024, forced current US President Joe Biden to postpone a foreign visit he was going to make to Angola, the country that would have been his first African country.

Postponing US President Biden’s visit to next December further confines the continent to a gray area within an election campaign that is more focused on domestic issues, such as the economy, immigration, national security and weapons.

In addition, the choices that the new US president must make in foreign policy, where tensions in the Middle East and the Russian-Ukrainian war are priorities.

In an analysis published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Cameron Hudson, a senior fellow in the center’s Africa Program, said that “the November 5 elections and their outcome will affect US credibility on the African continent in the coming years.”

Despite the Biden administration’s promises to raise the voice of Africans in decision-making and global institutions, Africa still does not have a permanent seat on the Security Council.

In addition, US-led international movements to address climate change, development finance and global power competition continue to favor the global North, which has reinforced the perception that Washington is an unreliable partner.

In contrast, Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Kamala Harris, who ignored Africa throughout their campaigns, have done nothing to give Africans the impression that their administrations will be significantly different from previous administrations.

Trump's Opportunity

In the same context, the Italian newspaper Nigrizia expects that US-Africa relations, if Donald Trump wins the November 5 elections, will witness a reformulation of what he did during his first term between 2017 and 2021.

Trump's first term witnessed the continuation of the gradual diplomatic and military withdrawal of the United States from Africa, unlike what his predecessors did, who concluded agreements and programs with the continent.

In 2000, former President Bill Clinton launched the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) - which aims to facilitate African exports to the United States.

The list of AGOA products includes raw materials, textiles, and clothing. The trade agreement has been extended until 2025, granting relief from customs duties on imports from 32 out of 54 African countries.

The President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), launched by George W. Bush in 2003, also contributed to expanding access to antiretroviral treatment for millions of Africans.

But the health challenges facing Africa have changed since then, as the Nigrizia newspaper pointed out, with the late arrival of COVID-19 vaccines or their non-arrival at all.

Trump himself had proposed, through his Prosperity Africa Program, a plan to increase trade and investment relations between the two parties.

The plan theoretically sought to stimulate the growth of African economies and facilitate the work of private American companies, such as oil and gas companies.

However, Trump did not show any pragmatism in moving to stop the increasingly devastating effects of climate change, which also causes destruction and casualties in the United States.

Thus, the former president during his term wasted the opportunity to be able to provide concrete assistance to the African continent in particular, and to the planet in general, according to the Italian newspaper.

It is noteworthy that in 2018, Trump had used derogatory language to describe some parts of Africa when speaking against immigration from those countries, in addition to the fact that unlike his four predecessors, he did not visit the continent even once during his presidency.

On the other hand, analysts at the Council on Foreign Relations, Michelle Gavin and Ebenezer Obadare, pointed out that Trump is a strong supporter of the Christian cause in the United States, which in turn makes him a supporter of the evangelical Christian cause in Africa, which gives him the unwavering support of African-American voters.

In this regard, they pointed to former US President Trump’s meeting with his former Nigerian counterpart Muhammadu Buhari in 2018, and his provocation of him by asking him, “Why don’t you protect my African brothers and sisters?” in reference to the attacks of Boko Haram.

Harris’s Initiatives

Unlike current US President Joe Biden, his vice president and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris could capitalize on her March 2023 trip to Africa, during which she sought to improve US relations with Ghana, Tanzania and Zambia.

Nigrizia newspaper predicted that US-Africa relations would develop further if Harris were elected.

During her tour of Africa, Harris acknowledged the continent’s central role in the future of the planet. She also praised the continent’s few successful democratic experiments, as well as the success of initiatives such as M-Pesa in Kenya (which provides access to financial services to millions in Africa), and drones used to deliver medicines in Rwanda.

Harris also promised new funding for digital infrastructure ($100 million) and clean energy ($500 million) in West Africa.

Obviously, this funding is nothing compared to what China has invested in building roads, ports, power plants, and cities on the continent.

When Barack Obama was elected president of the United States in 2008, Africans had high hopes for him because he was the first African-American president.

But after Obama’s experience, Africans no longer believed that anyone in the White House could have a tangible impact on their well-being, and the idea that an African-American president could somehow increase American interest in the continent quickly dissipated.

The Obama administration did not depart much from traditional US policy toward Africa, which was based on talking a lot about the values of democracy and human rights, while pursuing US national security interests that often conflicted with these stated values.

It is noteworthy that the Biden administration had announced its intention to classify Kenya as the first major non-NATO ally.

The Biden administration then supported the creation of two permanent seats for Africa on the UN Security Council, but without implementing this so far.

Finally, the newspaper stressed that the winner of the upcoming elections will be called upon to commit more to the African continent, which has been left at the bottom of the US foreign policy agenda over the years, although the balance of influence is still in China's favor.

It pointed out that Russia is also still trying to maintain what it already controls in Africa through the use of mercenaries and propaganda.

One reason that has also angered African countries is Washington’s tendency to impose its own social values on global development policies.

For example, the Biden administration has called on African countries to respect and expand LGBTQ rights, demands that are likely to continue under Harris, while Republicans are seeking to ban abortion funding, which has been supported by successive Republican administrations.

The United States suspended Uganda from the AGOA program, imposed financial sanctions on Ugandan officials, and restricted their access to visas; all because Uganda passed a law criminalizing homosexuality.

At the same time, $1 billion in funding for the PEPFAR—a bipartisan program to combat AIDS across Africa—was withheld over Republican allegations that the program was also funding abortions abroad.