How Does Macron’s Retreat Affect France’s Muslims?

The headlines in the French press following the June 19, 2022, parliamentary elections were a clear reflection of the crisis that French President Emmanuel Macron is experiencing after losing his legislative majority.

The French press expressed the depth of the crisis that manifested itself after the election results emerged amid pessimism about the future, and the newspaper Le Figaro talked about “Macron’s slap.” The newspaper Liberation talked about the "earthquake" and Lacroix that "France is threatened with paralysis.”

Less than two months after his re-election as president, Macron lost his majority in the French National Assembly (parliament) to the left and far-right movements, which came behind in second and third place, while the French president's ally (Republican Party) slipped to fourth place.

Thus, the ruling coalition lost an absolute majority, winning only 245 seats in the 2022 elections, while it won 350 seats in the 2017 elections and needed the votes of 44 deputies from other parties to support its government by a majority of 289 out of 577 total parliamentary seats.

In contrast, the elections gave the coalition of left-wing parties second place as the first opposition force, with 131 seats.

Far-right seats increased 11-fold, replacing third, with 89 seats, at the expense of Macron's ally Republican Party, which finished fourth with 61 seats, intends to heal his wounds in opposition and refuses to return to government.

Amid the chaos, questions have mounted about the future of France's Muslims, who are estimated to be 10 percent of the country's total population, as the far right rises, and how they didn’t vote for Macron in parliament, despite their support for him as president.

 

Sudden Tsunami

After the election, Macron, who had an absolute majority in his first term, was in trouble, because his ally, conservative Republican Party chairman Christian Jacob, attacked him and accused him of being the reason why Marine Le Pen's party won these seats for supporting right-wing extremism.

He announced that he would not participate in the ruling coalition and would remain in opposition seats, which meant Macron resorted to alliance with the left or the extreme right, or governing without a majority, exposing all his projects and plans to fail in parliament and refusing to approve them.

French Muslim observers expect the most significant negative impact of the elections on Muslims, who make up 10 percent of France's population.

Le Pen's far-right party's acquisition of 89 seats in parliament should push for anti-Muslim policies, given France’s already anti-Islam hostility and racism.

Helped by frustration among Muslims, the French Muslim Democrats Union party, which participated in the elections, failed to win any seat despite nominating 85 candidates in the 2022 legislative elections, compared to only 10 in the 2017 elections.

But party chairman Nagib Azergui, in a June 13 statement, explained the loss of his party, which he founded in 2012, by wanting Muslims to support the left-wing coalition that is more capable of standing up to Le Pen.

However, for the first time, the candidacy of 85 Muslims from his party was a win-win for Muslims and in pursuit of political emergence without fear of Islamophobia, and that despite all their losses, they had won to emerge as warriors against Islamophobia.

The trend towards the "unknown" is the highlight of French experts as they talk about the future of their country in light of the results of the recent parliamentary elections.

The results will damage the country's political stability, and every vote on a bill will be "open to the unknown" because there is no absolute majority, political expert Alain Duhamel told AFP on June 21st.

According to the agency's analysis, Macron's alliance has two options: either to conclude an agreement with other parties similar to those of the government in Germany, or to negotiate every legislative text it wants to pass.

Britain's Reuters reported on June 20th that the election result would pave the way for a period of political uncertainty that would require a degree of party power-sharing, political paralysis and possibly re-election.

 

Political Coexistence

The results of Macron's parliamentary elections and rival parties will be forced to resort to a scenario called "political coexistence," observers say.

France's presidential system of government gives the president almost complete control over all executive aspects of the country, making him the first decision-maker on foreign policy, security and military issues, as well as domestic policies.

But if the president belongs to a political current and another political current wins a majority in the French parliament, the president's powers in favor of the prime minister, who belongs to the parliamentary majority, are greatly diminished.

Hence the term "political coexistence,” in which the President is obliged to "coexist" with the Prime Minister belonging to the parliamentary majority.

If the President and the Prime Minister fail to coexist together, the President of the Republic can force the Prime Minister to resign, but in that case the parliament will be dissolved and early parliamentary elections will be held, which has not happened in the previous three coexistence times.

The French president has three scenarios to govern in conjunction with parliament, which is now dominated by a majority of his opponents, according to an AFP analysis on June 21st.

First, the alliance with the Republicans is Macron's closest ally, enabling their 61 seats to be a comfortable majority of 306 (a majority is determined at 289 seats).

But there is a possibility that the Republican Party will refuse to ally with Macron because it has announced that it will move to the opposition and has attacked Macron's fragmentation of the moderate right in favor of the extreme right and the left.

Scenario 2: Macron's party allied itself with some leftists, relying on the fact that the center-left is represented by the Socialist Party, and the Greens in European countries allied with Liberals and formed a government together.

Third, having to ally with Le Pen to secure a comfortable majority of 346 seats in Parliament, this would be a contradictory government, and there could be major clashes within it.

 

Muslims Status

The great rise of the far right in the French parliament elections has raised serious concerns among Muslims and immigrants alike.

This sharp rise in Le Pen's popularity will give him greater political influence to press for more hardline measures against Muslims, unlike Macron's, including a total ban on the veil worn by Muslim women in France, as promised.

Philippe Marliere, professor of French and European politics at London International College, told Time magazine that Macron, who claims to be defending moderation, may have to walk as the mood of voters shifts to the extreme right.

Macron, he believes, could increase his tough anti-Muslim measures in his previous five-year term.

If Macron, who has cracked down on immigration and discriminatory legislation against Muslims, imitates the extreme right in immigration, deportation and other cases, he will legitimize the extreme right and become like them, TIME reports.

A journalist from Monte Carlo Radio said to the Arab Post website on June 22nd that Macron was seeking to block the far right and identify with some of his constituents' ideas primarily for political considerations.

Future laws might guarantee provisions that flirt with the extreme right, such as additional conditions on naturalization law, changes to immigration laws and the freedom of movement of individuals within the Schengen space.

Macron has already passed the controversial Principles of Promoting Respect for the Values of the Republic Act, known as the "Fight against Separatist Islam," in parliament in July 2021, which has been criticized for racially targeting Muslims.

Ghaleb Bencheikh, president of the Islam France Foundation, president of the World Forum of Religions for Peace, said the rise of the extreme right will further tighten restrictions on Muslim expatriates and immigrants in general, and parliament's policies will be of different affiliations against them.

"Muslims have to wait for difficult days, especially since those who can defend their interests and civilian frameworks have sold their conscience and bowed to the expansion of the far-right movement," he told The Arab Posts.