Amid Shifting Tides in Lebanon and Syria, Is the End of Shiite Militias in Iraq Imminent?

As Hezbollah's capabilities in Lebanon are crippled and the regime of Bashar al-Assad collapses in Syria, pressure is mounting on Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq. International and U.S. demands for Baghdad to disband these groups, which have become a parallel state, are intensifying.

The Shiite factions, numbering about 66, include 44 loyal to Iran, known as “loyalist militias.” All of these groups are part of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), formed in 2014 during the ISIS invasion of Iraq and officially recognized by Iraqi law in 2016.

The loyalist militias are accused of killing thousands of Iraqi civilians during the war against ISIS (2014-2017), committing atrocities against protesters during the October 2019 demonstrations, and fighting alongside Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria since 2012.

These militias are also known for targeting U.S. military forces in Iraq, including the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, and for claiming responsibility for attacking Israeli targets in the occupied Palestinian territories, following the outbreak of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7, 2023.

Western Pressures

Iraq is facing external pressures to dismantle its armed militias, according to officials close to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani.

Ibrahim al-Sumaidaie, political advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister, stated in a TV interview on December 16, 2024, that the U.S. has urged the Iraqi government to disband the militias itself, warning that if this is not done, “it will be forced.”

“Political understanding with the factions has reached an advanced stage, and there is some response.”

“We now need to dismantle the factions, as the international community will no longer accept the duality of state and non-state in Iraq,” he added

Al-Sumaidaie clarified that calls to disband the militias “are not new” but have been longstanding demands from the U.S. and Western nations toward all previous Iraqi governments.

“This time, the solution will be imposed externally, by force, and in a different manner, unless we voluntarily comply,” he emphasized.

Al-Sumaidie stressed the need for a reevaluation, saying, “Iraq can no longer remain a part of the resistance axis after the fall of the Assad regime and Hezbollah's decline in Lebanon. We must now, out of our own responsibility, along with the factions, reconsider the issue of initiating their dissolution and integration into the political system.”

Similarly, Mohammed Sahib al-Daraji, technical advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister, emphasized the need for a change in the political system's governance. “If the political forces do not respond to these changes, there could be shifts that do not align with the current political vision,” he warned.

In an article published by the official al-Sabaah newspaper on December 18, al-Daraji called for serious consideration of a change in governance and the shift to institutionalism immediately, urging to “cut off any malicious plans against our people and country and address changes with true pragmatism.”

He cautioned of “unpredictable changes, whether economic, security, or foreign political shifts, that will reshape the scene with new actors and directors, potentially leaving the current ruling political forces sidelined.”

In response to these statements, Prime Minister al-Sudani stated in an interview on state television on December 19 that “there are no conditions for disbanding the Popular Mobilization Forces. No one is allowed to demand that.”

He explained, however, that a timeline had been set to centralize weapon control under the state and eliminate any groups or factions outside the official security institutions, to coincide with the announcement of the end of the international coalition forces' mission in Iraq.

On September 27, a joint statement from the U.S. and Iraq confirmed that the military mission of the U.S.-led coalition in Baghdad (against ISIS) would conclude by September 2025, transitioning to bilateral security partnerships.

A Difficult Choice

Asked about dismantling militias to prevent forceful disbandment and upheaval to Iraq’s Shiite-dominated political system since 2003, researcher Iyad Thabit doubted the government’s ability to deliver.

“The survival of the armed militias within the Popular Mobilization Forces is based on blackmailing the government and twisting its arm. They have the money, weapons, and political influence that protect them, as most of them belong to the ruling Shiite Coordination Framework,” Thabit told Al-Estiklal.

“Groups like Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, Kata'ib al-Imam Ali, and even Hezbollah Brigades are all loyalist militias with parliamentary representation and even ministers in the current government.”

“Dismantling Shiite militias and relinquishing heavy and medium weaponry, including drones, is unlikely and difficult to implement. However, a superficial freeze could be pursued as a conciliatory solution,” he noted.

Thabit added that if external force is applied, the militias would be compelled to surrender their weapons.

According to Zeravan Barwari, an advisor at the London Center for Training and Strategic Studies, although the Popular Mobilization Forces were not directly involved in the attacks in “Israel,” they still pose a threat to the Western camp.

“The creation of the Popular Mobilization Forces had a limited goal, which was to eliminate ISIS, and this was achieved in 2017. However, it later shifted its strategy and began targeting Washington's interests in the region,” Barwari told Alhurra TV.

“The Popular Mobilization Forces veered off their original path, pursued foreign agendas, and some of its factions attacked Iraqi bases hosting U.S. soldiers, as well as foreign facilities and companies in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region.”

As a result, Barwari believes the possibility of “dismantling the Popular Mobilization Forces,” even if no one is explicitly calling for it, remains on the table. He noted that attempts to end what is known as the resistance axis are ongoing across several countries, including Iraq.

Barwari added that dismantling the Popular Mobilization Forces now stands as one of the most likely outcomes, citing a growing recognition among militia leaders that resistance is no longer an option.

Call for a Fatwa

On the same front, al-Akhbar, the Lebanese newspaper affiliated with Hezbollah, reported on December 21 that an Iraqi official (unnamed) said the Iraqi government had received repeated requests from international and regional parties to dissolve the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and hand over the factions' weapons to the state.

“The second visit of the UN representative to Iraq, Mohamed al-Hassan, to the highest religious authority in Najaf, Ali al-Sistani, on December 12, was to request a fatwa to dismantle the PMF, which was originally established under a fatwa from al-Sistani, or to integrate it with the security ministries. However, al-Sistani refused to meet him,” according to the newspaper.

“The push to dissolve the PMF and dismantle its factions is not a new Western demand, particularly from the United States, which has consistently voiced its dissatisfaction with the PMF due to its ties to Iran and alignment with Tehran’s regional agenda.”

The same source added that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani “has always emphasized that the PMF should not be involved in internal or regional conflicts.”

Although the PMF has been entirely uninvolved in the events in Gaza and Lebanon, some international and regional actors see the factions as a threat to their interests, claiming they are controlled by Iran, according to the source.

In early November 2024, al-Sistani issued a statement after meeting with UN representative Mohamed al-Hassan for the first time. The statement emphasized preventing external interference in Iraq, enforcing the rule of law, limiting weapons to the state, and combating corruption.

For his part, former Deputy Prime Minister Baha Araji, a close ally of al-Sudani, argued that “al-Hassan's movements, his various meetings, and his visit to Iran are perfectly normal, considering the presence of a UN office there."

“The PMF is an official institution, established by law, and calls for its dissolution are not true. As for the armed factions, any decision regarding their dismantling or otherwise is exclusively made by the Iraqi state, as it is an internal matter.”

“Ultimately, the fate of these factions lies in the hands of those in power. Their survival hinges on the presence of U.S. occupation; once that ends, their existence will too,” he concluded.