Major Setback: Will Tension in Kashmir Worsen Relations Between India and Pakistan Again?

In a new and dangerous escalation that could ignite the conflict between India and Pakistan, Indian police announced the deaths of dozens of people in the disputed Kashmir region, while Indian authorities described the attack as the worst targeting civilians in years.

The attack took place in Pahalgam, a popular tourist destination with a Muslim majority population, which attracts thousands of visitors every summer as armed violence has declined in recent years.

Former Indian military and intelligence officials accused the Pakistani armed forces of orchestrating the attack and called for a strong and swift response, while Pakistan denied any involvement.

According to observers, the Pahalgam attack threatens to ignite a new military confrontation between India and Pakistan, which possess nuclear weapons and have fought several conflicts since their independence in 1947.

Deadly Attack

Between mutual accusations, political escalation, and military actions, Jammu and Kashmir once again appears to be on the brink of eruption, in a conflict whose repercussions transcend geographic boundaries and threaten regional stability.

On April 22, the region witnessed the worst attack targeting civilians in India since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, killing 26 people and wounding 17 others.

Following the deadly attack, the region was placed under complete lockdown, while airlines increased their flights as tourists began to leave. 

Heavy military and security personnel were deployed amid heightened sectarian tensions, especially since all the victims were Hindus.

Hundreds of angry Hindus also gathered to protest, carrying candles and banners reading ‘Stop Terrorism’. Other banners called for the resignation of Indian Home Minister Amit Shah.

In turn, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi cut short his visit to Saudi Arabia and returned to New Delhi to closely monitor developments, amid fears of a resurgence of violence in the Muslim-majority state of Jammu and Kashmir.

Modi vowed to bring the perpetrators to justice, writing on his X account: “We will not allow them to exploit us! Our resolve to fight terrorism is unwavering.”

While Indian police blamed militants fighting Indian rule, a group calling itself the Kashmir Resistance claimed responsibility for the attack.

The group linked the attack to what it described as systematic demographic change overseen by the Indian government, through the settlement of tens of thousands of foreigners. 

It pointed to the influx of 85,000 Hindu settlers into the region, which has a population of approximately 13 million, of whom Muslims constitute approximately 90%.

In a subsequent statement, the group claimed that the targeted individuals were not ordinary tourists, but members of the Indian security services tasked with gathering intelligence.

It also indicated that the operation should serve as a wake-up call to New Delhi and all those who support its expansionist policies, vowing to launch new strategic attacks to ensure that anyone who contributes to undermining the resistance is punished.

In contrast, former Indian military and security officials indicated that the perpetrators wanted to draw international attention to Kashmir by planning the attack to coincide with US Vice President JD Vance's visit to India and Modi's visit to Saudi Arabia.

They also indicated that the attack was intended to undermine Kashmir's tourism sector, as it occurred just weeks before a major Hindu pilgrimage.

However, former Indian military and intelligence officials accused the Pakistani armed forces of orchestrating the attack and called for a swift and strong response.

Unintended Consequences

Indian security agencies have claimed that the Kashmir resistance is merely a front for Pakistan-based militant organizations such as Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) and Hizbul Mujahideen.

Pakistan, however, denies providing any military support to these movements, asserting that its support for Kashmiris is limited to diplomatic and humanitarian advocacy.

In the first official comment on the recent attack, Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Shafqat Ali Khan said in a statement: “We are concerned about the loss of tourist lives. We offer our condolences to the families of the deceased and wish a speedy recovery to the injured.”

However, Pakistanis are following developments with growing concern amid hints from Indian officials of possible military strikes, while the media is discussing expert analyses warning of unintended consequences if the conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors escalates.

The Indian government has not officially identified the party responsible for the attack, but on April 23, it announced a series of punitive measures against Pakistan, accusing it of supporting cross-border terrorism.

This comes after New Delhi downgraded its relations with Islamabad, closed the only land crossing between the two neighbors, and for the first time suspended its participation in a crucial six-decade-old Indus River water-sharing treaty.

Local media reported that India summoned the chief diplomat at the Pakistani embassy in New Delhi to declare all military advisors at the Pakistani mission persona non grata and give them a week to leave.

India is also set to withdraw its military attaches from Pakistan and reduce the staff at its mission in Islamabad from 55 to 30.

The Indian Ministry of External Affairs also announced in a statement the immediate suspension of visa services for Pakistanis, adding that all existing visas would be revoked by April 29. It advised Indian citizens in Pakistan to return as soon as possible.

In response, Pakistan suspended all trade with India and added that it would exercise its right to suspend all bilateral agreements with its neighbor.

According to a statement issued by the office of Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, visas for Indian citizens will be revoked, with the exception of Sikh pilgrims.

The statement also indicated that all borders would be closed, as well as the closure of airspace to Indian-owned or operated airlines.

Pakistan also declared Indian naval and air defense advisors in Islamabad persona non grata and demanded their immediate departure.

All-Out War

The latest deadly attack is a major setback for what Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) considered an achievement in bringing what they described as peace and development to semi-autonomous Jammu and Kashmir, which had long suffered from sectarian violence.

In 2019, India revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir and divided it into two union territories: Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh.

This move gave foreigners the right to reside, purchase land, and obtain jobs within the region, sparking a wave of protests and the imposition of strict central rule, amid Pakistani condemnation and concerns about attempts to alter the region's demographic makeup.

The status of Kashmir is one of the most prominent issues that have contributed to the tension in relations between India and Pakistan, and the dispute over it has sparked serious military confrontations on several occasions between the two countries.

The roots of the conflict between the two neighboring countries go back to 1947, when Britain partitioned its Indian colony into two independent states: Pakistan, with a Muslim majority, and India, with a Hindu majority.

The situation of the Muslim-majority region of Kashmir was complicated, as its Hindu ruler refused to join either country.

However, it later agreed to join India, sparking the first war between the two countries and leading to the de facto partition of the region, whose legal status remains unresolved to this day.

Since then, India and Pakistan have fought three wars over Kashmir (1947, 1965, and 1971), with frequent incidents of violence, including armed attacks and bombings. In addition to this was the unofficial Kargil War in 1999 and some border skirmishes.

However, the February 2019 suicide bombing that killed more than 40 Indian soldiers in the city of Pulwama nearly ignited a full-scale war after New Delhi accused the Pakistan-backed Jaish-e-Mohammed group of carrying it out. In addition, aerial clashes also broke out between the two countries.

Another attack occurred in June 2024, when gunmen attacked a bus carrying a group of Hindu pilgrims, causing it to plunge into a deep ravine, killing at least nine passengers and wounding 33.

Despite UN mediation and de-escalation efforts, the positions of both sides remained rigid.

India accuses Pakistan of supporting separatists, while Islamabad demands a UN referendum granting Kashmiris the right to self-determination.

Amid this political stalemate, international concern persists about the potential for the crisis to escalate, especially given that both countries possess nuclear weapons.

Since then, the possibility of a fourth war between the two neighbors has escalated from time to time, the first since they joined the nuclear club in the 1990s.

For his part, BJP Spokesperson Altaf Thakur accused Pakistan of fueling terrorism in the region, describing the recent attack as a result of Pakistan's frustration.

“Pakistan and its proxies are unable to accept the return of peace and tourism to Jammu and Kashmir. They want to stifle growth and return the region to a state of fear. But we will not allow that to happen,” he said.

In contrast, former Pakistani Information Minister Murtaza Solangi said, “In the last escalation (2019), India and Pakistan were fortunate to step back from the brink.”

“But this time we are in a more dangerous phase. The collapsing global order and India's tense media are making it difficult for Modi to act rationally. Both countries will pay the price if India does not stop this farce,” he added.

According to The Bridge Chronicle, new footage captured on April 23 revealed significant Pakistani Air Force activity near the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir.

Military analysts warn that these movements likely indicate Pakistan is preparing for a large-scale military operation, raising concerns about the potential for conflict in this volatile region.