Analysts Predict a New War between Armenia and Azerbaijan
The British BBC website highlighted the possibilities of a "New war" between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as result of the recent events that occurred between the two countries; Baku regained the Karabakh region, which had been under the control of Yerevan since 1992.
The site, in its Persian version, believes that "Azerbaijan should work to secure its borders and secure intelligence work in order to know what is happening in the region”.
It pointed out, "The second war between Azerbaijan and Armenia lasted 44 days, and ended in November 2020, and after the ceasefire, Azerbaijan recovered parts of the area in dispute, which is Karabakh and the seven surrounding regions that had been under the control of the Armenian forces since the first war in the early nineties".
After the treaty brokered by Russia, the Russian forces maintaining peace between the two countries settled in the mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh for nearly 5 years, which is still inhabited by Armenians.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said, "the dispute over Karabakh is over, and it is part of history now"
However, independent experts believe that the conflict has not been resolved in any way, and there is a possibility of major clashes in the near future, at the same time the appeals of Armenia's revenge increases every day, Azerbaijan is strengthening its army, and preparing new strategies.
Baku's Fears
The website stated, "The Baku government is clearly concerned about the outcome of the current political crisis in Armenia, which could make it strong and seek revenge”
Last February, Aliyev went several times to the political circles of Armenia, especially the former presidents Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan, and warned them of their plans for revenge, and threatened them with severe penalties.
Opponents of the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, took advantage of Baku's fears, claiming that he enjoys the support of Azerbaijan and Turkey.
On the other hand, most reports announced about Russia's attempts to rehabilitate the Armenian army after its defeat in the last war, and this is also one of Baku's concerns, according to the website.
At the beginning of 2021, Aliyev declared, “The work of the Armenian army has ended, this army no longer exists, and it should not exist, such a fascist state should not have an army, and we will not allow our state to be threatened again.”
However, Jalal Harutunian, the former defense minister of the Karabakh government who was appointed as head of the military monitoring service of the Armenian Defense Ministry, stated on February 5 that “Armenia will try to restore the territories that came to Azerbaijan’s disposal in the period from September to November 2020".
Harutunian continued, "Azerbaijan will realize our steps today and tomorrow. We will do anything to return what we lost. Our main goal is to strengthen military forces and acquire new weapons and modern technology."
The site clarifies that Military experts in the region believe that Azerbaijan should learn from the victory in the last war, and prepare itself to respond to new challenges with a modern strategy.
Experts stressed that "from now on, the main focus of Azerbaijan should be on the security of its borders, the confrontation with enemy agents, the collection of information from the Armenian lands and the Nagorno-Karabakh region, as well as ensuring security as the basis for life in the areas recaptured during the victory in the last conflict."
They emphasized, "There will be no conventional war. Rapid anti-terror operations may be accomplished in a specific area by a civilian group, and this issue is what strengthens the role of the internal forces and anti-terror units."
Fierce War
For his part, blogger on military affairs, Tawfiq Shahmradaf, stated, "Armenia will not be able to resist militarily for the next 5 years after its defeat in the last war. Therefore, it will launch a clear and intense war against Azerbaijan through the media."
"Azerbaijan should prepare itself for the final war that could happen in the next 5 or 10 years. Azerbaijan's forces did well during Baku's last victory and played a crucial role," The site added.
The "BBC" announced, "In 2020, Azerbaijan has allocated 2.6 billion dollars of the budget to the military forces, which is more than 376.2 million dollars of the cost of the plan."
"This additional amount is for the purchase of new military equipment, the payment of the salaries of soldiers who were sent to the region throughout the last war, and the government of Azerbaijan intends to allocate even more than 2.7 billion dollars of the budget for defense and national security," It explained.
For his part, Aliyev said in one of his speeches: "The army must use the latest technologies and the most advanced equipment so that no one dares to take provocative measures against our country."
Azerbaijan is the second major importer of Turkish defense and aerospace products. Only last January, it purchased $39.7 million worth of equipment from Turkey. In February, Turkey agreed to sell the most accurate cruise missiles "SOM" to the Azerbaijani army. The Turkish Defense Research and Development Corporation manufactured the missiles.
According to reports, Baku intends to conclude an agreement with Israel during the summer to purchase high-precision weapons and all military equipment for about two billion dollars. This equipment is scheduled to be delivered within the next 5 or 7 years.
Turkey and Azerbaijan have been conducting joint military exercises in an organized manner since the conclusion of the "Strategic Cooperation and Mutual Support" treaty in 2017.
Recently, some of the "Commandos" of the army of the "Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic" (affiliated to Azerbaijan) participated in the military exercises.
