A Glimpse Behind the Scene: Why Did Muharrem Ince Pull Out of the Race?

Amidst his popularly known determination and stubbornness, and after facing immense pressures reaching the point of humiliation and extortion from various opposition factions, the leader of the Homeland Party, Muharrem Ince, dropped a political bombshell, declaring his withdrawal from the presidential race.

Just two days before the anticipated voting on May 14, 2023, Ince, 59, appeared visibly angry and tense during a press conference held in front of his party headquarters in Ankara, announcing his withdrawal from the competition for the highest position in the country.

This sudden decision has shocked Turkish society as a whole, including the people, government, and opposition, leading to varied analyses and resulting consequences.

There have been deliberations about unscrupulous behind-the-scenes maneuvers that some consider to be the true motivation behind his decision to withdraw.

 

‘Moral Assassination’

During the press conference, Ince began his speech by saying: “I have never witnessed such an onslaught in the last 45 days, since announcing my presidential candidacy, throughout my 45-year-long political career. They have spread forged documents and fake bank receipts worth millions of liras, and the latest were manipulated photos and videos.”

He added: “All of this is the work of the Fethullah Gulen movement and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party [both classified as terrorist groups in Turkiye]. Unfortunately, some opposition supporters have reposted these things. Also, government institutions did not protect my reputation or defend me.”

He continued: “What is happening against me is an organized ‘assassination.’ These clips, audio recordings, and published images are all lies and fabrications. They have taken photos from an Israeli pornographic website and superimposed my face on them.”

Over the past two days, several Twitter accounts have posted explicit videos and photos, allegedly showing Ince engaged in inappropriate relationships, with the implication that more would be shared if he did not withdraw from the race. However, the authenticity of these materials could not be verified, and the prosecutor’s office launched an investigation into the matter.

Ince concluded his emotionally charged speech by saying: “Here I am, withdrawing from the presidential race after they claimed that I was a puppet and on the payroll of the ruling regime. I am withdrawing so that I won’t be blamed if the opposition loses the elections.”

However, he added that his party, the Homeland Party (Memleket Partisi), will still participate in the parliamentary elections and urged everyone to vote for its candidates.

 

Revealing Reactions

Since declaring his candidacy to compete against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the leader of the Republican People’s Party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Muharrem Ince has faced fierce attacks from the secular, Kurdish, and even leftist opposition.

In the previous presidential elections in 2018, Ince ran as a candidate from the Republican People’s Party against Erdogan and managed to secure 30% of the votes compared to Erdogan’s 52%, which was a significant achievement for the party against the Turkish President.

However, he later split from the Republican People’s Party and founded the Homeland Party due to disagreements with Kilicdaroglu and his team.

In recent weeks, Ince has been seen as a significant threat to Kilicdaroglu, as he was expected to attract votes from his former party, the Republican People’s Party.

Following the major disagreements that shook the opposition alliance known as the Table of Six in early March 2023, Ince’s popularity notably increased, reaching between 10 to 15% according to opinion polls.

This was to the extent that on March 22, Ince stated that he expected to receive more than 30% of the votes in the first round of elections and confidently win the race in the second round, relying on relatively strong support from the youth, benefiting from his educational background as a physics teacher for many years.

Meanwhile, Kemal Kilicdaroglu tweeted, sharing a song that calls for unity and wrote: “My invitation remains open,” referring to a previous invitation in which he called for Ince to join the Table of Six.

However, Ince declined the invitation due to his association with the left-wing Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which is suspected of having ties with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Kilicdaroglu added: “Let’s set aside old disagreements and grievances. We welcome Mr. Ince to our table. Please come.”

As for Sinan Ogan, the presidential candidate and leader of the right-wing extremist Ancestral Alliance, he wrote on Twitter: “We are just getting started. If anyone wishes to step back and support us, please feel free to do so!”

It was noteworthy that the BIST 100 index in the Istanbul Stock Exchange rose by 5.5% on a daily basis, and the increase in the banking index exceeded 9% with the announcement of Ince’s withdrawal, enhancing the chances of Kilicdaroglu’s success.

While various opposition factions and Western financial circles celebrated Ince’s withdrawal, viewing it as a major boost to Kilicdaroglu’s chances of winning in the first round, impartial analysts offered a different perspective on the situation.

 

Backstage Withdrawal

Turkish veteran journalist Murat Yetkin quickly published a video on YouTube, stating that the decision to withdraw had been circulating behind the scenes for about 10 days, but Ince had been resisting.

His agents and lawyers also confirmed that he would not succumb to blackmail.

He added that in reality, “Ince’s votes, which had risen significantly to around 12% at the beginning of March, dramatically dropped in the past two weeks to less than 2%.”

Just hours before Ince announced his withdrawal from the elections, KONDA Research and Consultancy revealed a dramatic drop in Ince’s approval rating to 2.2%.

Downplaying the positive impact of Ince’s withdrawal on Kilicdaroglu, Yetkin pointed out that Ince did not withdraw while openly endorsing the candidate of the Table of Six alliance.

Instead, he left, accusing the Fethullah Gulen movement and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party of launching a campaign of moral assassination against him, and also accusing the opposition of complicity.

This suggests that Ince’s votes may not necessarily go to Kilicdaroglu as many expect, which Ince himself confirmed by saying: “I withdrew so that they won’t blame me in case of loss.”

Left-wing journalist Nevsin Mengu also alluded to this by stating: “He withdrew contrary to expectations, but he did not declare his support for the opposition. On the contrary, he withdrew, accusing the opposition of being behind this dire situation.”

Regarding this aspect, political science professor Emrah Gulsunar wrote on Twitter: “Ince possessed the full right to put forth his candidacy for the presidency; nevertheless, he made the right decision given the current circumstances.”

He explained: “I don’t think the sexual leaks were the main reason for Ince’s withdrawal, but with the increasing popularity of Erdogan in recent weeks, Ince’s popularity dropped from 10% at the beginning of April to 2-3% today.”

He added: “Ince withdrew in order to continue his political life after the elections. By doing so, he made the right move for his future, rather than facing the anger of all opposition factions if they were to lose.”

This analysis appears relatively convincing because, in both scenarios, Ince seems to come out as a winner. If the opposition loses, it proves that he wasn’t the cause, but rather it was the weakness of Kilicdaroglu and the strength of Erdogan.

If the opposite happens, the credit for the opposition’s victory will be attributed to Ince’s withdrawal.

Contrary to the claims of the traditional opposition, Altan Sancar, an official from the Diken newspaper in Ankara, confirmed that “the heinous targeting of Ince and the resulting withdrawal will not benefit the opposition.”

He added that the withdrawn candidate himself is well aware of this, claiming that this move praised by the opposition will not yield the desired outcome because, from a legal standpoint, the ballot papers or election procedures will not change. The votes Ince would have received will still be valid, but ultimately the opposition’s image has been tarnished.

In response, activists argue that many of the votes that were supposed to go to Ince will now shift toward President Erdogan as a reaction to this conspiracy, which brings back memories of previous stains on his reputation.

Meanwhile, a small number of voices may choose to completely boycott the election, and a few may lean toward Kilicdaroglu and Aksener.

This is due to the fact that Ince withdrew without calling for voting in favor of the opposition, instead accusing them of complicity in his removal.

Former Anadolu Agency director, Kemal Ozturk, pointed out the same, saying: “Despite Muharrem Ince’s withdrawal, his name will still be on the presidential ballot papers because they have already been printed.”

Ozturk added: “The votes cast for him will not be considered void, but they will be counted and recorded. These are the pieces of information that I have obtained, but there are people who think differently, and it is the Supreme Election Board that will make the final decision.”

This sentiment was also echoed by Mustafa Ozturk, a member of the Supreme Election Board, in statements made to several local media outlets.

 

‘The Tape Conspiracy’

On their part, two former deputies from the opposition Republican People’s Party confirmed that what happened to Ince is reminiscent of what the former party leader, Deniz Baykal, faced in what is popularly known as “The Tape Conspiracy.”

Deputy Yildiray Sapan stated that the event that led Ince to withdraw brought to mind the Tape Conspiracy that was orchestrated against Baykal in 2010 by the Gulen movement, forcing him to resign and paving the way for Kemal Kilicdaroglu to assume the party leadership.

He further added in an interview: “Here we are witnessing a new collaboration between the two sides to elect Kilicdaroglu as the President of the Republic.”

At that time, Baykal was forced to resign after the release of a recorded video on the internet that showed him with a woman in a bedroom, causing a stir in Turkish society.

Deputy Mehmet Sevigen stated: “Back then, Baykal succumbed to the blackmail of the Gulen movement, and today, Ince is subjected to the same. However, the people see and hear everything that is happening.”

Meanwhile, the renowned Turkish journalist known for his pro-government stance, Ibrahim Karagul, wrote: “All terrorist organizations are using all their weapons to elect Kilicdaroglu, and Turkiye must be cautious not to fall victim to terrorism.”

Perhaps the most illustrative explanation of this conspiracy can be found in President Erdogan’s remarks at the end of his rally in Ankara, where he stated: “I understand the greedy and despicable attacks from the opposition against us, but what is truly infuriating is that they don’t even show compassion for those who were once among their ranks.”

He added: “They did not hesitate to resort to threats, insults, blackmail, and dark bargains to achieve their goals.”

“Yesterday, they brought Kilicdaroglu to the leadership of the party through ‘The Tape Conspiracy,’ and today they want him to lead Turkiye in the same manner. However, my conscience does not allow the political life in my country to stoop to such a level.”

In conclusion, addressing Kilicdaroglu directly, he stated: “We know that you became the leader of the party through unethical means, but this time, this nation will not allow you to fulfill your ambitions. They will bid you farewell.”