Will the British Labour Party Succeed in Winning Back Pro-Palestine Voters?

The repercussions of the conflict in Gaza continue to reverberate through the British political landscape, casting a long shadow over the recent local elections.

Despite the Labour Party’s notable gains, there is evidence to suggest a significant erosion of its voter base, with a shift of more than 20 percent of its support towards independent candidates who advocate for the Palestinian cause.

This phenomenon has evoked memories of the Labour Party’s role in the Iraq War, which ultimately led to a decline in its influence and paved the way for the Conservative Party’s ascension.

Iraqi Memories

A recent piece in The Guardian by journalist Martin Kettle posed two probing questions: Can Keir Starmer prevent the Gaza situation from impacting the Labour Party as profoundly as the Iraq War impacted Tony Blair’s leadership? And, is this a concern that genuinely troubles him?

Amidst a backdrop of otherwise favorable outcomes for Labour in the English local elections, the persistent sway of the Gaza conflict on Labour’s electorate cannot be dismissed.

Kettle cautions against drawing direct parallels between Gaza and Iraq, noting that history seldom replicates itself precisely.

The Labour Party’s current status as the opposition, contrasted with its governing position in 2003, is a significant distinction.

Unlike Blair, who sought an active role for Britain in toppling Saddam Hussein, Starmer, paralleling the UK government’s stance, remains largely removed from the fray in Gaza.

The article draws a comparison between Blair’s proactive leadership style and Starmer’s more measured approach, highlighting a contemporary anti-war sentiment that is increasingly centered on humanitarian concerns rather than the concrete actions of British politicians.

The writer emphasizes that the implications extend beyond the emotional; they are fundamentally electoral.

Blair’s Iraq policy resulted in Labour forfeiting a fifth of its votes in the 2005 elections, and the personal opposition to Blair expedited his exit, setting the stage for the Conservative resurgence under David Cameron.

Scottish Experience

For its part, the political landscape in Scotland has been markedly shaped by the Iraq conflict, bolstering the Liberal Democrats and giving rise to a new faction catering to Muslims and students, spearheaded by George Galway.

This shift gradually paved the way for Jeremy Corbyn’s ascent to the helm of the Labour Party, even as the shadow of Blair’s legacy and Labour’s historical policies persists.

Labour’s electoral support plummeted in the recent mayoral and council elections, despite victories in Blackburn, Kirklees, and Oldham.

Notable shifts away from Labour were observed across various councils in the north and Midlands. In the West Midlands mayoral race, over 70,000 votes were cast for Ahmed Yacoub, an independent pro-Palestinian candidate.

Despite Muslims comprising over 20 percent of the electorate, Labour’s share of the vote dwindled by an average of 18 percent, as revealed by Professor Will Jennings of the University of Southampton in a study encompassing 930 locales.

Analysts caution that Labour’s modest gains in council seats belie a broader electoral weakness.

The party’s tangible successes and its lead in the polls might mislead Starmer and his allies into underestimating the setbacks related to Gaza.

Such complacency could prove detrimental. Starmer’s past remarks endorsing the Israeli Occupation’s punitive measures against Gaza’s civilians ignited controversy. Although he later clarified his position and adjusted his policies, the recent elections indicate the issue’s enduring resonance.

Labour’s election strategist, Pat McFadden, acknowledged the need to regain lost ground, a sentiment echoed by many within the party.

While the specifics of a reconciliation strategy remain unclear, its pursuit is deemed crucial for Labour’s immediate and long-term prospects.

The implications of the Gaza issue for the upcoming general election are uncertain, given the larger scale of parliamentary constituencies and the limited number of seats influenced by Muslim voters.

However, the ongoing conflict in Gaza could intensify the pressure on Labour representatives, particularly in cities like Birmingham and Manchester.

Observers also note that Labour’s waning support transcends religious demographics, with the Green Party’s surge — adding over 70 new councilors nationwide — emerging as a significant factor in last week’s electoral outcomes, according to Professor Rob Ford of the University of Manchester.

This trend underscores the multifaceted challenges facing Labour as it navigates the current political terrain.

Changing Landscape

The Green Party’s ascent in local governance has solidified its status as a formidable contender to Labour’s progressive wing, particularly if Starmer ascends to the premiership and grapples with public discontent.

The recent electoral victories in Newcastle and Leeds signal the possibility of broader success.

Observations reveal that Muslim voters within the Labour Party present a complex demographic, often holding conservative views on social issues while being deeply invested in foreign policy matters that resonate with them.

This demographic mirrors the Irish Catholic voters of the 20th century in Britain, who were staunchly anti-abortion yet steadfastly supported Labour for its pro-Ireland stance.

The discussion then pivots back to the initial query regarding Blair’s and Starmer’s strategies. Starmer, akin to Blair, has channeled his leadership efforts into forging a centrist, center-left electoral alliance within Labour, aimed at winning back conservative defectors from 2019, assuring them of Labour’s reliability.

Upon achieving success, Starmer intends to replicate this strategy in the 2028-2029 period.

The recent induction of Natalie Elphicke, a former Conservative MP, into his coalition underscores its effectiveness. However, sustaining such a diverse alliance over two terms remains a question.

Preserving unity within the party is distinctly challenging, particularly when governance is tested, and divergent instincts or interests emerge.

Blair’s tenure post-Iraq war and Johnson’s post-Partygate scandal are testament to these challenges.

Starmer’s handling of the inevitable crises facing his coalition will be pivotal in determining his potential to exceed a single term as prime minister, unlike Johnson.

Viewing Starmer through a purely technocratic lens suggests he’s undertaking a significant gamble. Labour’s stance on Gaza has grown increasingly critical of “Israel” since October.

This week, Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy condemned the Rafah assault in Parliament, advocating for an immediate ceasefire and aid access to Gaza.

He labeled the treatment of Gazans as potentially criminal, possibly breaching international law, and openly criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Despite this, such positions seemed inconsequential to Muslim and left-wing Labour voters at last week’s polls, with Starmer’s six-month-old interview still weighing heavily on their minds.

Starmer’s reluctance to engage with these voters, to mend and foster relationships, represents a considerable risk.

The electoral repercussions of this neglect were evident last week, and should Rafah’s situation worsen, the political cost could escalate significantly over time.