Why Did Bashar al-Assad Call on Russia to Establish New Bases in Syria?

At a time when Russia is deeply involved in its second year of the invasion of Ukraine, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is once again opening the door to Moscow to increase its military presence in Syria.

Russian military presence in Syria began in 2015 to save the Syrian regime from collapse following a popular uprising that erupted on March 18, 2011.

Assad arrived in Moscow on March 14, 2023, for an official visit, his fourth to Russia since 2011, during which he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

 

Assad’s Concessions

During an interview with the Russian news agency Sputnik, published on March 16, he said that Damascus would welcome any proposals from Russia to establish new military bases or increase its forces in Syria.

Assad also explained that Russia’s military presence in Syria does not have to be temporary, and this may be necessary in the future.

Russia’s presence in the Mediterranean through Syria is crucial for its global power balance, he added.

Great powers today cannot protect themselves or play their role within their borders. They must play their role outside the borders through existing allies in the world or through bases, according to Bashar al-Assad.

He added that the joint committee meeting during the visit was different, focused on specific points, specifically on investment projects, and even the agreement to be signed (a comprehensive agreement between the Syrian regime and Russia).

He also mentioned that the agreement would be directed toward 40 specific investment projects (mentioned by Assad in the context of cooperation with Russia) in the fields of energy, electricity, oil, transportation, housing, and industrial sectors.

Assad told Putin: “As this is my first visit since the start of the military operation in Ukraine, I would like to reiterate Syria’s support for this operation.” This statement from Moscow indicates Assad’s willingness to offer more concessions to his ally Putin and provide additional leverage regarding the Syrian issue, according to observers. Russia’s current military presence in Syria is mainly through its permanent presence on the Mediterranean coast.

 

Military Presence

This was solidified after Moscow signed a long-term lease agreement in 2017 with the Bashar al-Assad regime for the Russian Hmeimim airbase in the Syrian province of Latakia for 49 years, extendable for another 25 years, in addition to the Russian naval base on the coast of Tartus, which was also leased for 49 years.

The civilian airport base in Qamishli, eastern Syria, is also considered the third major Russian base and serves as its center of operations, and is the largest and most logistics and effective one there.

The Hmeimim base provides Russia with an opportunity to revive its international status in the international system and its relations with active parties, including the United States and then European countries.

The Russian intervention in Syria, which began on September 30, 2015, was classified as one of the most important turning points in the Syrian revolution on both the political and military levels.

It prevented the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime and enabled it to regain control over wide areas of cities that were under the revolutionaries’ control.

Since then, the Hmeimim base has become a launchpad for Russian planes, causing the deaths of tens of thousands of Syrian civilians and the complete destruction of infrastructure and homes, displacing hundreds of thousands of people outside the country.

According to a study published by the Jusoor Center for Studies on January 5, 2021, Russia has 83 military sites in Syria, including bases and presence points, distributed across 12 provinces, 11 of which are in al-Hasakah, 7 in Deir ez-Zor, and 6 in Raqqa.

After years of the al-Jarrah Military Airbase in the eastern countryside of Aleppo being out of service, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced on January 24, 2023, that Moscow and Damascus had renovated this base for joint use.

The Russian Defense Ministry explained that “the joint air base for the Russian and Syrian air forces at al-Jarrah Airbase makes it possible to cover the country’s borders.”

The strategic importance of the airport, which was recaptured by Assad’s forces with Russian support from the Islamic State group in 2017, lies in its role as a link between east and west Aleppo.

Additionally, al-Jarrah Airbase is located 10 kilometers away from the nearest point of control by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) supported by the United States and 47 kilometers away from the city of Manbij, which Turkiye threatens to carry out a military operation against to expel the SDF. It is also about 40 kilometers away from the nearest point of control by Syrian opposition factions in northwestern Syria.

 

Protecting Interests

From time to time, Moscow conducts maneuvers and training exercises for the Russian navy off the coast of eastern Mediterranean near the Tartus base, which is the only naval facility that the Kremlin possesses outside the geographical scope of the former Soviet Union. On several occasions, Russian President Vladimir Putin has reiterated that the Tartus and Hmeimim Russian bases in Syria constitute an important factor in protecting Moscow’s interests.

According to military experts, the Kremlin considers this foothold a necessary measure to confront the West, highlight Russian strength in the southern wing of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and increase Moscow’s intelligence-gathering opportunities against the United States and its partners. Additionally, the Russian military presence in the eastern Mediterranean enhances Moscow’s military options in the Black Sea.

It also creates business opportunities for Russia, as activities between the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014, and the Syrian regime. Georgy Muradov, deputy prime minister of Crimea, stated in January 18, 2022, that the peninsula’s ports could become Russia’s main southern maritime gateway as part of developing trade and economic relations with Syria.

However, with the Assad regime’s attempts to increase Russia’s growing influence in Syria to protect its rule, many observers confirm that the continued Turkish and American military presence in the resource-rich north of the country also ensures that Ankara and Washington have a say in Damascus’s future.

It also prohibits the creeping of Assad’s forces and its Iranian and Russian allies to regain full control over the land. Russia’s presence in Syria is limited enough to protect its interests there at a low cost and for a long period of time. This became clear after Moscow took an important step by signing a decree by Putin at the end of May 2020 authorizing the defense and foreign ministries to work with the Assad regime to sign an additional protocol to expand the Russian military presence in Syrian territories.

The decree, which Moscow published on the portal dedicated to publishing documents, treaties, and agreements, confirms the Russian President’s approval of the government’s proposal to add an additional protocol bearing the name Protocol Number One to the convention signed with Damascus on August 26, 2015, which allowed for a permanent Russian military presence on Syrian territories.

 

Pressure Cards

The military analyst and expert, Syrian Colonel Ismail Ayoub, believes that “in the Syrian situation, it’s not the Russians who are in control, but rather the Americans. Therefore, Assad’s invitation is Putin’s dictate for him to be the one who requests the establishment of new Russian bases in Syria.

This is aimed at pressuring the Americans because both countries (Russia and the United States) have military bases in Syria. This request, in his opinion, allows the Russians to expand and put pressure on the American decision in Syria.

He added to Al-Estiklal: “But what will the new bases offer Russia if the United States can form groups that strike these bases or destroy them or work to undermine their security?”

He concluded by saying: “What Russia is doing with this call to establish military bases is part of Russian propaganda, in which Syria presses Washington, and if the Russian forces had military power, they would have expelled the remaining military bases of the countries established after 2011.”

Ayoub believes that “the Syrian regime is no longer capable of making any decision on its own in Syria, and the biggest evidence of that is its inability to repel Israeli attacks on its military sites and main airports in Syria.”

The analyst concluded by saying: “In international strategy, there is no disagreement between Russia and the United States in Syria, and there is an agreement that this area, where Sunni Arabs are located, should remain under the yoke of dictatorships and in a state of backwardness, and that the prevailing situation should remain for a long period of time without these people obtaining their freedom and completing the process of looting their wealth.”