What Are the Consequences of Shifting Latin America to the Left Again?

Latin America is undergoing radical changes in its political scenes, with a remarkably shifting toward the left.

Brazil's presidential elections are not the only exception in which the left has returned to power, especially in Latin America, in light of the growth of populism and right-wing in most of the recent general elections, especially in Europe; the return of the leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to rule again marked the end of the series of the left's return to the Latin continent.

Since 2018, left candidates have won presidential elections in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Mexico, Peru, and finally Colombia, which for the first time won a left-wing president in its elections last May under conservative pro-American leaders.

Despite the victories of the leftists and its complete control over the Latin continent, it is difficult to be certain that it is the savior of the Latin continent from poverty, as it depends on the ability of each president within his country to be independent from American influence.

It is noteworthy that what distinguishes most of the left today in the Latin continent is that it came as a result of the political and economic development on the continent and the repercussions of the epidemic, as it does not represent a classic ideological version as much as it adopts a more realistic approach to meeting economic needs.

 

Pink Tide

At the beginning of the current millennium, the Latin continent witnessed a gradual but overwhelming left tide, which began with the election of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela in 1998, the election of Lula da Silva in Brazil in 2002, Nestor Kirchner in Argentina in 2003, and Evo Morales in 2005 in Bolivia, and the return of Daniel Ortega to rule Nicaragua.

In 2008, Jose Mujica came to power in Uruguay. In 2010 Dilma Rousseff was elected president, and in Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro succeeded his leader Hugo Chavez as president in 2013.

This stage constituted the biggest inflection to the left, prompting observers to term the pink tide of the left's rise to power in the Latin continent, which was indeed a foray but through the boxes because most of the leftists who came to power came directly from guerrilla wars or from parties and groups that believed in violence as a way to gain power.

However, this wave did not last long. Soon its leaders, who were inexperienced, collided with the stubborn reality. Most of their experiences resulted in a catastrophic failure, exploited by neoliberal parties and populist currents to jump to power.

Since 2015, the wave of the pink tide has begun to break, and this downturn has included large countries, such as Brazil and Argentina, where the right-wing populist neoliberal currents have dominated.

It was believed that the left in Latin America had reached its climax when the specter of the right succeeded in overthrowing it; the trial of Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff in Brazil in 2016, the election of Sebastian Pinera in Chile in 2018, and the ouster of Evo Morales in Bolivia in 2020 were all signs that the left is running out of momentum, and perhaps the desire of Latin people to change their model of governance.

Meanwhile, the right was re-emerging in power in Brazil, Chile, and Colombia, and the leftists in Latin America were re-arranging their cards and revising their ideology.

The second wave of the pink tide currently taking place in the Latin continent began with the election of Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador as Mexico's president in 2018, who pushed for social reforms and nationalized the country's lithium industry, declaring that its exploration, extraction, and use are the exclusive right of the state.

In 2019, the Frente de Todos (Everyone's Front), a coalition of left-wing parties, won the elections in Argentina, where Alberto Fernandez was elected president.

In November 2020, the Movement for Socialism (MAS) returned to power in Bolivia with a new president, Luis Arce, who served as Minister of Economy in the government of the leftist Morales, and who is considered his political heir.

In July 2021, Pedro Castillo won Peru's presidential election, and in November 2021, Xiomara Castro, a female representative of the left-wing Freedom and Refoundation Party, was elected President of Honduras.

In March 2022, Gabriel Borek won the presidential election in Chile.

On June 19, 2022, the leftist Gustavo Petro won the presidential elections in Colombia, which is a major ally of the US in the Latin continent.

On October 30, 2022, the Latin continent took another left shift, as the left returned to rule Brazil again after the leftist leader Lula da Silva won the presidency, which will, of course, lead to a change in domestic politics as well as the balance of power on the continent and the world, adding momentum to the wave of victories for the left in the region.

In turn, the Uruguayan researcher specializing in international politics, Manolo Santos, said that the past period witnessed a silent rise of leftist forces in Latin America, noting that the seven most populous countries in the continent (Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Venezuela, and Chile), which represent 80% of the region's population, are now ruled by left-wing leaders, which is leading to a major dramatic shift in the history of the region and the world.

 

Wide Solidarity

In the same context, observers believe that the victory of the left in Latin America is a victory for the Palestinian cause and all the other people targeted by the far-right foreign policy of the former pro-Israel dull regimes and American imperial interests.

The left's solidarity with the Palestinians is due to several reasons, the most prominent of which is that the peoples of Latin America have been subjected to types of injustice, racism, and persecution similar to what the Palestinian people are currently subjected to, so they advocate just causes in general.

It is also expected that Brazil will play its historical role in support of the Palestinian cause and all liberation movements in the world and that its restoration of influence in Latin America will contribute to stopping the drift of the countries of the continent towards the American policies of absolute support for the Israeli occupation.

It is also expected to help ease US pressure on countries that oppose the Israeli occupation of Palestine, such as Venezuela, El Salvador, and Cuba, as Brazil rejects the US's treatment of Latin America as its own backyard.

It is also likely that the left's return to the rule of Brazil and to the fore in the scene in Latin America will stop the tendency of some countries to move their embassies to occupied Jerusalem, as the US, Guatemala, and Honduras did.

It is noteworthy that Gustavo Petro's seizure of the presidency in Colombia was not good news for "Israel" and the US, given that Colombia is the backyard of the US in Latin America, in addition to being Israel's close friend and the hotbed of its intelligence and security operations to expand on the continent.

Petro also does not have any friendly feelings for "Israel." On the contrary, he is famous for his opposition and severe criticism of the Israeli attacks on the Palestinians and the wars on Gaza and for supporting international activities against Israeli policies. He likens Israel's treatment of the Palestinians to the Nazis' treatment of the Jews.

Chilean President Gabriel Borek offered support for Palestine in his speech to the 77th session of the UN General Assembly on September 20, 2022, just days after a diplomatic crisis erupted between Tel Aviv and Santiago after the latter postponed receiving the new Israeli ambassador.

 

US Backyard

In the same context, the US fears that the rise of the left in Latin America will lead to a decline in its influence in the region it considers its backyard and that China will benefit from this rise.

The reaction of the US to this leftist rise in the Latin continent is unpredictable. It is difficult to assert that the US will be hostile or less severe towards these countries.

It is likely that differences will be present in the relationship of the US with these leaders, but they will be differences over policy and its priorities and not a confrontation between parties motivated by motives of hostility.

It is noteworthy that a new shift to the left in Latin America may affect the balance of diplomacy with the US and China.

Although China has become the number one trading partner of some Latin American countries (Brazil, Peru, and Chile), the US remains the region's largest trading partner as a whole, and Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico are the major partners of the US.

In addition, the US still far outperforms China in the volume of foreign direct investment with Latin American countries.

Yet leaders of the left can still change the direction of politics on the continent; while they currently have less range to maneuver in the face of economic pressures, some opportunities are also available, especially with regard to alliances among themselves and foreign alliances, given the shifts that the international balance is undergoing between competing forces.

Since US President James Monroe declared the Latin continent in 1820 to be the US sphere of influence and its backyard, the US strategy toward the continent has not changed, which is based on complete political and military control of the region along with economic plunder of its natural resources.

Since then, the US military has carried out more than 100 interventions, invasions, and coups in Latin America and the Caribbean.

In 1975, the CIA staged a series of military coups across the region to overthrow leftist and independent governments.

In 1999, a wave of left-wing forces began in Latin America that reflected the discontent of the peoples of the continent with neoliberalism and American hegemony.

In 2012, the US response to the first wave of the left's rise began with a series of counter-revolutions marked by economic sanctions, instigated coups, and hybrid wars, in which Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo was removed in a constitutional coup.

In 2013, the CIA sparked violent protests in the streets of Venezuela and was suspected of being involved in the mysterious death of Chavez.

In 2016, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff was ousted, and former President Lula da Silva was unable to run for office due to corruption charges (which later proved to be completely fabricated).

In 2019, the US-led Organization of American States (OAS) alleged that the Bolivian elections were rigged, as a coup ensued that led to the resignation of President Morales.