Lebanon’s Shia community is caught between Iraq’s Najaf and Iran’s Qom, as al-Sistani warns against Iranian influence and Hezbollah’s armed role amid regional power struggles.

Amid the sharp decline of Iran’s regional axis following the events of October 7, 2023, Tehran has been quietly orchestrating coordination meetings among its allied Shia forces, particularly in Iraq and Lebanon.

In Iraq, rising Sunni-led opposition figures opposing Iranian influence gain media attention, but critics warn their rhetoric risks unrest and exaggerates regime-change prospects.

Mounting U.S. pressure on Iraq’s PMF signals a broader push to dismantle the militia and integrate its members into state forces ahead of the 2025 elections.

With six months until Iraq’s parliamentary elections, intense political maneuvering is underway as Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish factions reshape alliances while battling for leadership and control over government positions.