Will Turkiye Succeed in Bringing Russia Back to the Grain Deal?

In light of the succession of external strikes and internal stabbings, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has landed himself in a quandary, is using the limited tools he has left to achieve his basic goals of invading Ukraine.

Not only did Russia use its authority in the United Nations, specifically the veto, to stop the flow of United Nations aid to northwestern Syria through Turkish territory. Rather, it also refused to renew the grain export deal it concluded with Turkiye, the United Nations, and Ukraine in July 2022.

The Kremlin officially withdrew from this deal on July 17, 2023, under several pretexts, while Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that there is no return to the grain deal unless Russian requirements are met, which include lifting the ban on Russian grain exports and allowing the Russian Credit Bank to operate within the global financial system.

Putin accused Western countries of diverting the deal from humanitarian purposes into political blackmail and profit-taking by major American and European companies that were transporting and reselling Ukrainian grain.

Moscow also accused Kyiv of exploiting the safe shipping line within the deal for military purposes, while Ukraine and Western officials considered that Russia was using food as a weapon in war through its withdrawal from the grain deal.

It is noteworthy that the grain deal had been extended more than once, allowing three Ukrainian ports to export 33 million metric tons of grain and other foodstuffs to the world through a humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea since the first ship moved on August 1, 2022.

According to the United Nations, the deal contributed to curbing global food prices by 23% since last March, thanks to the resumption of Ukraine’s exports of wheat, barley, sunflower oil, and fertilizers, especially since Ukraine is one of the largest exporters of grain in the world.

 

Turkish Role

Since Russia announced its withdrawal from the grain deal, Turkiye has accelerated time and efforts to bring the deal back into effect, which is the lifeline of 79 countries and 349 million people on the front lines of food insecurity threats.

The first of these efforts was the talks between Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, aimed at discussing the latest developments related to the grain deal, according to the Turkish Foreign Ministry statement on July 18.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hopes to meet his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, next month.

Turkish media quoted Erdogan as saying that these talks may lead to the return of the deal, calling on Western countries to consider Russia’s demands.

Erdogan stated that he would also talk to Putin before they meet in person next August, and indicated that he would discuss the deal, including the Russian grain and fertilizer export file, during their next meeting.

In another context, British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly described, in an interview with Anadolu Agency, Turkiye as a strong and important friend, expressing his hope that it would succeed in bringing Russia back to the negotiating table.

“I really hope that President Erdogan can convince Moscow of the importance of the Black Sea grain deal, help lift people out of hunger, and lower global grain prices,” Cleverly said.

He stressed that President Erdogan did a very important job, as he played a key role in cooperation with the United Nations in reaching the Ukrainian grain transfer deal.

On his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he had sent a letter to his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, asking them to continue working on the grain export deal across the Black Sea.

In his speech, Zelenskyy added that the grain deal could remain valid without Moscow’s participation.

In turn, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced that there are security risks if the grain deal is resumed without Russia, wondering about the country that can bear those risks.

 

Terms and Exceptions

Following the suspension of the deal and the military escalation that began with the Ukrainian attack on the Crimean Peninsula, grain prices in global markets skyrocketed.

On the European Commodity Exchange, wheat prices rose by more than 8.2% in trading last Wednesday, bringing the price of a ton of wheat to 253.75 euros ($282.4), while maize prices rose by 5.4%.

In the U.S. market, wheat futures prices rose by 8.5%, the highest daily rise since the beginning of the war in Ukraine early last year.

Russia’s suspension of the wheat export deal from Ukraine also led to dire warnings of severe food shortages in African countries dealing with the consequences of drought.

The Black Sea grain deal, which was signed by Russia and Ukraine under the auspices of Turkiye and the United Nations in July 2022, and which has been renewed three times since its entry into force, allowed cargo ships to pass safely through a waterway in the Black Sea to and from Ukrainian ports, with the aim of alleviating the threat of famine in the world.

According to the United Nations, since last August, the grain deal has allowed the export of three million tons of grain by sea, of which the World Food Program (WFP) has benefited only by about 725,000 tons of wheat, which is provided to countries most in need of food, such as Ethiopia, Yemen, and Afghanistan.

In addition, Ukraine provided half of that amount to the United Nations program, according to the deal, and Turkiye benefits from the milling process for the benefit of the WFP, which distributes it as flour in the countries in which it operates.

However, the largest amount of grain exported under the deal was maize, and China was one of the largest importers, with its share of 33 million tons amounting to 8 million tons, with 6 million tons going to Spain and 3.2 million tons to Turkiye.

Russia has always criticized the implementation of the deal, which it says it agreed to ensure the arrival of grains such as wheat, corn, and others to the countries of the south that face a shortage of grains for food, but what happened is that most of those exports go to the western and rich countries.

Among other conditions that Russia wants to implement is that the bulk of those exports under the deal be for developing countries that really need grain.

During a meeting with the Russian government, Putin stipulated a return to the grain deal, the lifting of sanctions on Russian grain and fertilizer exports to world markets, and the removal of all barriers to Russian banks and financial institutions that serve exports of food products and fertilizers.

He also stipulated that these institutions be reconnected with the international banking system SWIFT for financial transactions immediately, adding that “we do not need any promises or ideas in this regard. We need to apply these conditions.”

Russia is also calling for the resumption of the supply of agricultural machinery and spare parts and the resumption of the work of the ammonia pipeline that connects the Russian city of Tolyatti with the Ukrainian Odesa—most of the Russian items are still refused to be implemented by the West.

Although Russian food and fertilizer exports are exempt from Western sanctions, Moscow says restrictions on payment, logistics, and insurance have effectively hampered its shipments.

It is noteworthy that during the past year, Russian wheat exports increased, but fertilizer exports—especially ammonia and potassium—decreased.

 

Political Pressure

The Russian withdrawal sparked warnings of repercussions on the lives of hundreds of millions of people, especially in developing countries, as well as criticism from the United Nations, the U.S., the UK, France, NATO, and the EU, while China called for the continuation of the grain deal in a balanced and fully implemented manner.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said: “Russia is using hunger as an instrument to blackmail the world.”

On her part, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, denounced Russia’s withdrawal from the deal, describing it as an atrocity.

“While Russia plays political games, real people will suffer,” Thomas-Greenfield told reporters, accusing Moscow of holding humanity hostage.

The White House warned of deteriorating food security and harming millions after the decision.

On its part, Berlin called on Russia to extend the work of the deal, stressing its importance to global food security.

London expressed its disappointment with the Russian announcement, accusing Russia of using hunger around the world for political pressure.

France asked Russia to stop its extortion of world food security.

The French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said in a statement: “Russia alone is responsible for obstructing navigation in this maritime area and imposing an illegal blockade on Ukrainian ports,” according to AFP.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen strongly condemned Moscow’s announcement of its withdrawal from the deal, describing Moscow’s decision as shameless.

In turn, political researcher Mahmoud Alloush warned, in a statement to Al-Estiklal, of the dangers of turning the Black Sea into a confrontation arena between Russia and the West, especially after the collapse of the grain deal.

He added, “This matter worries Turkiye, which has been working since the outbreak of the war to limit military activity in the Black Sea, and one of its motives for reviving the grain deal is the stability of the Black Sea.”

He pointed out that Moscow will likely not tolerate any attempt to export Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea against its will, calling for Russian warnings to be taken seriously.

Mr. Alloush concluded by saying, “Russia has kept the door open to the possibility of reviving the deal if the West responds to its demands, and the only hope for reviving the deal now depends on Erdogan’s skill in convincing Putin of the advantages of renewing the deal and the dangers of not renewing it.”