Will a Middle East NATO Succeed in Resisting Iran’s Influence?

There are many rumors of a new military alliance in the Middle East. They matter because an "Arab NATO" might include the Israeli Occupation, indicating the beginning of improved relations between “Israel” and its Arab neighbors. However, are the rumors true?

The king of Jordan made news late last week when he told reporters that he would welcome a Middle Eastern military union akin to NATO.

This proposal has reappeared in light of rumors of increased security cooperation between the US, “Israel,” and Gulf Arab states against the threat posed by Iran, ahead of President Joe Biden's anticipated trip to Jeddah next month.

According to King Abdullah II, "I would be one of the first people to endorse a Middle East NATO." It's unique for the area, in my opinion, for all of us to come together and ask, "How can we support each other?"

Other sources have spread similar allegations concerning the formation of an "Arab NATO."

Benny Gantz, the Israeli defense minister, announced earlier this week that “Israel” has joined the Middle East Air Defense Alliance, or MEAD, a new US-led network. Gantz omitted naming the Arab countries that might also be engaged. Reuters and The Associated Press, two international news organizations, were unable to completely confirm the Israeli announcement or the title.

The Wall Street Journal then reported at the beginning of this week on covert gatherings in Egypt when military leaders from the Israeli Occupation, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain discussed collaborating on defense.

 

Trump Roots

The story of the formation of a regional military alliance in the Middle East, symbolically called Arab NATO, dates back to 2018 when the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump pressured its Arab friends to establish a regional military alliance known as the Strategic Middle East Alliance or mesa.

In addition, the Trump administration wanted to establish an alliance of eight Arab countries, namely the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Egypt, and Jordan, to "confront Iran's practices in the region," which would bring the Israeli Occupation and the Gulf states closer together, according to the previous administration.

U.S. calls for MESA have begun since July 2018, after the White House revealed its intention to form a security and political alliance with Gulf states as well as Egypt and Jordan, with an Arab version of NATO, or what the administration called the Sunni Alliance, to counter Iran's expansion in the region.

The Haaretz report in June 2022 noted that "legislation on this subject was submitted to Congress on June 9, 2022, and promoted by members of Congress and the Senate, both Democratic and Republican, as the law constitutes an attempt by the United States to strengthen military cooperation between Israel and countries in the Middle East after normalization agreements signed in recent years, and under the bill, the Pentagon is expected to develop a strategy to establish an air defense system in Within 180 days of the enactment of the law."

The talk of reviving the Arab alliance, to press for Arab–Israeli rapprochement against Iran, can be understood given the king's remarks, which are the most explicit among Arab kings and presidents on this issue, as they all accuse pro-Iranian forces of destabilizing the region, due to the Russian withdrawal from Syria due to the Ukrainian war, and thus the loss of the source of the greatest lull in Syria.

While a Reuters report noted that Washington hopes Arab–Israeli cooperation, particularly in the field of security, will help further the Israeli Occupation's integration into the region and isolate Iran and hopes to pave the way for further normalization deals with “Israel,” including with heavyweight Saudi Arabia in the Arab and Muslim worlds, after normalizing relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in 2020.

 

Potential Failure

Even while the case for a Middle Eastern NATO seems quite plausible, the political and military realities of the region make the whole thing absurd. The nations that would form such an alliance have difficulty identifying shared security objectives, let alone common enemies.

The majority of them have militaries built more to defend their governments against internal threats than from external foes. They may be skilled at beating up defenseless democratic advocates, but their performance in kinetic battles is lacking.

Several prior attempts to forge military alliances in the region have been unsuccessful due to these issues. In the last seven years, there have been two non-starters: A 2015 Arab League proposal for a joint anti-terrorism force; and a 2017 Saudi Arabian proposal for the Middle East Security Alliance (MESA), which President Donald Trump enthusiastically endorsed. It was unavoidably referred to as "the Arab NATO."

Bobby Ghosh wrote: “You would think this would be reason enough for the countries menaced by Iran to get serious about a regional military alliance. But although they are cooperating more closely on security issues, the Israelis and Arabs have different threat perceptions about Iran as well as different strategies on how to deal with Tehran. This muddies any hopes of the “very, very clear” mission King Abdullah has in mind.”

Oman and Qatar have friendly ties with Iran. Kuwait and Tehran continue to have friendly relations. Although Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are apprehensive of Iran, they are now more interested in accommodation than confrontation after getting their noses bloodied in battle with Tehran's proxy army in Yemen. Negotiations with the Iranian leadership have been taking place in an open manner between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

On security and international policy matters, tiny Bahrain frequently agrees with Saudi Arabia. The Houthi rebels, who are backed by Iran, are at war with the internationally recognized government, which is backed by an Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia.

The largest Arab security forces belong to states in North Africa, which have historically regarded the threat from Tehran with degrees of ambivalence corresponding to their distance from Iran. Egypt, the largest of them all, was the first to bolt from the ill-fated MESA project.

“All this means that the task of holding back Iran, whatever the outcome of the nuclear negotiations, will fall mainly to the US and Israel. Any proposal for a Middle Eastern NATO is a dead letter,” Ghosh concluded.