Azerbaijan Prevents Escalation of Israeli-Turkish Tensions in Syria: What Have They Agreed On?

Israeli-Turkish understandings aimed at preventing clashes in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime have played a significant role in the recent decline of Israeli airstrikes in the country.

Since April 9, 2025, Azerbaijan, which maintains strong ties with both Ankara and “Tel Aviv,” has stepped in to host Turkish-Israeli talks designed to avoid unwanted incidents in Syria, where the militaries of both nations operate.

Agreements on Syria

The Azerbaijani capital, Baku, has hosted technical talks between Turkiye and “Israel” aimed at avoiding clashes, with the latest meeting taking place on May 22, 2025.

Sources within the Turkish Ministry of Defence told reporters on May 22 that Ankara is engaged in discussions with “Tel Aviv” to establish a mechanism to prevent conflict in Syria.

According to Daily Sabah, “Turkiye is engaged in talks with Israel to establish a deconfliction mechanism in their shared neighbor Syria, Defense Ministry sources said on Thursday, but did not confirm Israeli media reports that the two countries had agreed to establish a hotline to prevent any military confrontation in Syria.”

An official Israeli source told the Hebrew newspaper Israel Hayom on May 21 that “Tel Aviv” and Ankara had reached understanding on coordinating their military activities in Syria to prevent clashes between their forces.

The source also confirmed that Israel remains firm in its position that southern Syria—which includes the provinces of Daraa, Quneitra, and Sweida—will remain a demilitarized zone.

Former Israeli officials have emphasised the importance of strengthening a mechanism between Ankara and “Tel Aviv” to prevent a conflict that neither side desires, Maariv reported on April 16, 2025.

The officials added that, despite Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s public warnings to “Israel” against continuing its military operations in Syria, behind closed doors Ankara conveys a message of disinterest in confrontation with “Tel Aviv.”

At the beginning of May 2025, Israeli airstrikes on Syrian territory—which had targeted weapons depots, ammunition stores, military headquarters, and vehicles since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime—came to a halt.

The pause in Israeli strikes, coinciding with meetings between Turkiye and “Israel” in Azerbaijan, signaled promising progress in the new understandings between the two countries.

This came alongside assurances from Damascus that it would prevent any threats crossing the southern border.

On May 23, 2025, Turkiye Today quoted an unnamed Israeli official saying, “We have agreed with Turkiye on most issues regarding Syria, and some details remain.” 

According to Al-Estiklal, “Washington worked to ensure the success of our agreement with Ankara and requested that we do not cross into areas where we are deployed.”

“The meetings with representatives of the new Syrian administration, under Turkish auspices, were positive,” the Israeli official noted, adding that “the new Syrian leadership has shown signs of goodwill which we intend to reciprocate.”

Initially, “Tel Aviv” viewed Ankara’s efforts to help Damascus regain stability as an attempt to “turn Syria into a Turkish protectorate,” according to Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar on April 3, 2025.

Hotline Activation

In this context, retired Brigadier General Abdullah al-Asaad, head of the Syrian strategic studies centre “Rasd,” said that “Azerbaijan’s efforts to prevent Israeli-Turkish military clashes in Syria have succeeded.”

Speaking to Al-Estiklal, he attributed this to “Baku’s role as a liaison between Turkiye and Israel following al-Assad’s fall, facilitating intelligence arrangements concerning Syria.”

“The growing momentum of Azerbaijani-Israeli relations in recent years has played a significant role,” al-Asaad added.

He noted that following a meeting between Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev at the Antalya Diplomatic Forum in Turkiye on April 11, 2025, Aliyev affirmed his commitment to advancing economic cooperation between the two countries.

This, al-Asaad noted, requires security stability — a demand echoed even by European actors who have urged “Israel” not to threaten the fragile stability of a new Syria.

Al-Asaad also highlighted Azerbaijan’s role in activating a hotline between Turkiye and “Israel,” describing it as a key achievement in preventing military clashes.

Meanwhile, the Israeli Ministry of Defense stated in a May 19, 2025, press release that Defense Minister Israel Katz met with his Azerbaijani counterpart, General Zakir Hasanov, as part of efforts to strengthen their strategic security ties.

During the meeting, the two ministers affirmed the “close and unique relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan — a bond built on trust, shared interests, and a deep strategic alliance between the two peoples,” the statement said.

The ministry added that Katz thanked his Azerbaijani counterpart, Hasanov, for his mediation efforts between “Israel” and Turkiye — a clear indication of high-level understandings taking shape over Syria.

Azerbaijan is now seen by all three parties as a “credible mediator” in reaching understandings on Syria during this critical phase of reconstruction, economic recovery, and efforts to improve daily life for Syrians.

According to the Prime Minister's Office (PMO), “Israel is engaged in ongoing discussions with the US to establish a strong foundation for trilateral cooperation between Israel, Azerbaijan, and the US.”

The language of diplomacy

“Israel” has voiced concern over the possibility that Syria’s new government could allow “Turkiye” to establish military bases on its territory.

On March 23, 2025, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held security consultations with top intelligence and defense officials to discuss the risk of a “potential confrontation” with Turkish forces on Syrian soil.

Following the fall of al-Assad, “Israel” scrapped the 1974 Disengagement Agreement signed with Hafez al-Assad’s regime and launched a sweeping military campaign targeting Syria’s remaining military infrastructure through intensified airstrikes and limited ground incursions.

In the aftermath, Israeli forces seized Mount Hermon and several villages more than 25 kilometers deep into Syrian territory—territory now added to the already-occupied Golan Heights, held since 1967.

Mount Hermon, or Jabal al-Sheikh, straddles the Syrian-Lebanese border and overlooks the Golan Heights, with visibility extending into Jordan.

Turkiye was among the countries most vocal in demanding “Israel” withdraw from the territories it occupied following the collapse of al-Assad regime.

On December 23, 2024, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated, “Israel will be forced to withdraw from the Syrian lands it has occupied,” adding, “The reason behind Israel’s growing aggression appears to be an attempt to overshadow the revolution in Syria and stifle its people’s hopes.”

The Turkish Foreign Ministry reiterated this position on May 4, 2025, calling on “Israel” to withdraw from Syrian territory and “cease obstructing efforts to establish stability there.”

Ankara, however, appeared increasingly inclined toward diplomatic solutions with “Israel,” according to many observers—even if such efforts came through third-party mediation.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed on April 9, 2025, that technical talks were underway in Azerbaijan, emphasizing that such mechanisms are essential to prevent any misunderstandings between the two sides.

Speaking to CNN Turk, Fidan added that the discussions resembled deconfliction mechanisms Turkiye had previously established with both the United States and Russia.

In this context, Turkish political analyst Hisham Gunay told Al-Estiklal that “Israel’s” halt in airstrikes on Syria is closely tied to the fact that “a clash between Turkiye and Israel on Syrian soil was never on the table, as both are key allies of Washington.”

“Turkiye is a NATO member alongside the United States, and both Ankara and Tel Aviv possess significant military capabilities—meaning any direct confrontation would bring substantial losses with no strategic gain for either side,” Gunay added.

“Turkiye’s rhetoric regarding Israel’s strikes in Syria has remained diplomatic, avoiding military threats—suggesting that a language of understanding was always the more likely path, which is precisely what’s unfolding in Azerbaijan.”

“Israel’s bombardments were largely aimed at clipping the wings of the newly reconstituted Syrian state to ensure it posed no threat to its national security.”

“Tel Aviv will not hesitate to respond if it perceives any future threat from the Syrian side—even if understandings with Turkiye, brokered by Azerbaijan, are in place,” Gunay added.

Meanwhile, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa revealed during a visit to Paris on May 7, 2025, that his government is engaged in “indirect negotiations” with “Israel” aimed at de-escalating tensions.