Why Did Bin Salman Let Sisi Return Empty-Handed When He Sought Refuge?

Recently, the visits of the president of the Egyptian regime, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, to several Gulf capitals have concluded without attaining the intended objectives.

In the early morning of April 2, 2023, el-Sisi made a surprise visit to Saudi Arabia to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, following a period of strained relations due to Riyadh’s refusal to provide new grants to financially struggling Egypt without any reciprocation, and due to sharp exchanges between media and political arms affiliated with both regimes.

The maps depicting spheres of influence, economic expansion, and geopolitical interests continue to define the ‘fragile’ relations among Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt.

The current situation is tilting toward a new policy of support and aid, which is different from the previous years, according to various statements by Saudi policymakers.

 

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On April 7, 2023, The Wall Street Journal published its report on el-Sisi’s visit to Saudi Arabia and the nature of the economic relations between Egypt and the Gulf countries.

The newspaper stated that “Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf countries have warned Egypt that any financial bailout would depend on Cairo devaluing its currency and appointing new officials to run its economy, according to Egyptian and Gulf officials, raising the bar for its embattled neighbor after providing years of easy assistance.”

The American newspaper mentioned that “the economy of the Arab world’s most populous country is in dire straits after the Covid-19 pandemic hit its tourism sector and the war in Ukraine pushed up global food and commodity prices.”

It also mentioned that “inflation has soared to over 40% and Egypt’s currency is one of the worst performers globally this year, pushing millions more into poverty.”

The newspaper pointed out that el-Sisi “is turning again to Egypt’s biggest benefactors, visiting Saudi Arabia in a surprise trip last Sunday to drum up more financial support for Cairo, according to people familiar with the matter.”

It also noted that “since Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi seized power in 2013, Gulf countries have provided tens of billions of dollars to Egypt in the form of aid and direct deposits to prop up an ally that is also a key security partner in the region.”

The Wall Street Journal highlighted that “while Mr. Sisi tweeted about meeting Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman; his visit didn’t result in any immediate Saudi funding promises.”

Egyptian and Gulf officials told the American newspaper that “Egypt’s wealthy neighbors all want better returns for their money now as they focus on reshaping their own energy-dependent economies.”

They added that “at the top of their list of demands is a further devaluation of the Egyptian pound, which would potentially make Gulf investments in Egypt more lucrative.”

“The Gulf states have asked for Egypt’s military to cut back its involvement in the economy in favor of a bigger role for the private sector, a move that would potentially allow Gulf companies to take stakes in Egypt’s growth sectors,” according to the magazine.

Officials also emphasized that “the Gulf states also want a more effective leadership to run its finances, the officials said, amid years of concerns over mismanagement and corruption.”

They noted that “Egypt, so far, has done little to address the Gulf countries’ demands.

“Analysts expect Cairo could soon let the currency fall sharply, marking the fourth devaluation by Egypt’s central bank since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.”

This comes at a time when “negotiations with sovereign-wealth funds and companies in the Gulf over various state assets have stalled, according to people familiar with discussions, with no deals coming to fruition.”

The Wall Street Journal concluded the report by saying that “the Gulf states also agree with the IMF that Egypt needs to rein in fiscal spending and dial back the role of its military in the economy, the people said. In the past decade, the armed forces have been put in charge of hundreds of infrastructure projects and expanded into sectors ranging from food and beverages to cement.”

Economic experts believe that the Gulf rescue plan is not enough to fill the funding gap that Egypt will face in the coming years as it seeks to pay off debts estimated at tens of billions of dollars.

 

Continuous Insults

It is noteworthy that despite the reports that spoke of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s reluctance to provide unconditional aid, the campaign of hostilities, insults, and insinuations between the two regimes did not subside after Sisi’s visit.

The latest of these was what was done by Mohammed bin Salman’s advisor, Turki Al al-Shikh, the chairman of the Saudi General Authority for Entertainment, when he published on April 6, 2023, a picture that was considered offensive to Sisi, and it was widely circulated on social media.

The picture was of a child participating in a festival in Riyadh, carrying a clackers toy, which is a small plastic toy that caused a crisis in Egypt in 2017.

Tuqtiqa, the Arabic name for the clackers, became popular among young people and children as a derogatory name for Sisi, as the name carried a mocking sexual connotation of the head of the regime, and it did not please the authorities, who quickly confiscated it and arrested the sellers.

Therefore, Al al-Shikh’s publication of such a picture gave an indication of the extent of the tensions and strain between Sisi and Mohammed bin Salman, especially since on January 26, 2023, the Saudi academic, Turki al-Hamad, who is close to the Crown Prince, launched a storm of tweets on his personal Twitter account in which he criticized the situation in Egypt and monitored the reasons for the political and economic decline.

 

Time Does Not Come Back

Egyptian economist Ahmed Youssef said: “If we look at the nature of Egyptian–Gulf relations after 2013, we will find that they were mainly based on support in exchange for stability of the new political system, which was opposed to the January 25 revolution and loyal to Gulf powers, specifically the UAE and Saudi Arabia.”

Youssef added in his interview with Al-Estiklal that “King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz’s famous visit to Egypt in 2014, known as the plane visit, where Sisi boarded the plane and was kissed on his head, is indicative of the extent of the Egyptian regime’s subservience to its Gulf patrons.”

He continued saying that “the idea of the Gulf reviewing their aid to Egypt is not new, but it happened a long time ago. Sisi dealt with them as mere ATMs, as Mohammed bin Zayed said in a 2017 interview leaked by the Middle East Eye, at which point bin Zayed announced: ‘If I’m going to pay, I have to be in charge.’”

“From here, privatization operations increased, and the UAE acquired critical sectors in the Egyptian state, such as the medical sector, pharmaceutical industry, banks, and others, and Saudi Arabia worked similarly, but Sisi’s demands increased, and he began to worry about the Gulf’s dominance and their acquisition of more assets, and this is the reason for the difficult equation he is living.”

The Egyptian researcher emphasized that “Sisi, in his foreign policy toward the Gulf countries, behaves as if time is frozen, and he neglects that time is passing and never comes back, and what was in 2013 is not the same as in 2023 and the current era.”

He believed that “the Gulf countries know that the Egyptian system is in a continuous predicament that will not end due to the erratic economic policies, corruption, non-profitable projects, inflation, and accumulated debt. These are diseases that cannot be cured in the near future, and they cannot continue to bet on a failed system and lose these significant sums of money.”

Youssef concluded by saying: “As a result, the current situation necessitates that they provide binding commitments to Sisi and the army generals; to receive the funds, they must offer an equivalent value of their assets and sovereignty."