What Are the Implications of the Saudi-Led Coalition Easing Restrictions on Yemen’s Airspace?

In a new development on the Yemeni front, the Saudi–Emirati coalition has lifted further restrictions on air travel over the war-torn country, sparking questions about the implications of such a move at this time.

Since 2014, Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, have seized power in Yemen, leading to the escalation of the conflict in 2015 when Saudi Arabia and its allies, forming the Arab Coalition, launched airstrikes to prevent the rebels from taking full control of the country.

The war has taken a toll on Yemen’s airports, with its skies filled with military aircraft and many airports rendered inoperative.

In 2016, nearly 12 out of 14 airports were closed, leaving only two operating in Aden and Seiyun, under the control of the internationally recognized Yemeni government.

The coalition allowed the reopening of Sana’a Airport in April 2022, which is managed by the Houthi militia, for humanitarian flights.

 

Easing Restrictions

Regarding recent developments concerning airports, Yemeni Airlines revealed that the Arab coalition (Saudi–Emirati) has granted permission for flights on routes that were previously prohibited.

According to Yemen News, on September 7, 2023, the airline’s sources stated that “its planes resumed flying over the skies of Hodeidah and Taiz provinces on their way to Saudi Arabia.”

The sources within the Yemeni airline also indicated that the new flight, which was expected to start two days earlier on September 5, 2023, coincided with the resumption of flights between Sana’a and Jordan.

The director of Sana’a Airport, Khaled al-Shayef, predicted that flights through the airport would resume at a rate of six flights per week.

Yemen’s aviation sector, unlike those in other Arab and global regions, is characterized by its small size, including the number of airports, infrastructure, equipment, and operating airlines.

Before 2015, Yemen had approximately 14 airports, including six international ones, but all of them were closed in 2016, with only Aden and Seiyun airports remaining operational.

As a result, the operational capacity of Yemen’s international airports significantly declined, with the number of flights decreasing from around 33,812 flights in 2014 to 9,383 flights in 2022.

This led to a reduction in the number of passengers from approximately 2.7 million passengers in 2014 to only about 653,000 passengers by November 2022.

The war increased the risks and insurance premiums for air traffic due to international and Arab airlines ceasing operations in the Yemeni market, which was home to around 16 airlines. Consequently, air transport in Yemen became limited to the Yemeni government-owned airline, which only possesses five aircraft.

The General Authority for Civil Aviation in Sana’a estimated direct and indirect losses and damages incurred by this sector in Yemen until March 2022 to be around $6.5 billion.

This includes $2.6 billion in direct losses, as per a statement issued by the authority in April of the same year.

The authority confirmed that direct losses consisted of infrastructure, facilities, buildings, navigational equipment, and supplies. The closure and targeting of Yemeni airports resulted in more than a 60% decrease in their capacities and revenues.

 

Motivation for the Houthis

In a move that could hold significant implications, the easing of restrictions on air travel in Yemen by the Saudi–Emirati coalition is seen as a potential motivator for the Houthi rebels. Abdulsalam Mohammed, the head of the Abaad Studies and Research Center, commented on this development, stating, “If there is indeed an agreement to expand the airspace in the country, especially in areas under Houthi control or those previously deemed as risky, it signifies that the latter is moving closer to signing an agreement with Saudi Arabia.”

Mohammed said in his interview with Al-Estiklal, “Such a step carries numerous indicators, the foremost being the arrival of the Houthi delegation in Riyadh to finalize this agreement. This development comes at a time when there are movements within the country that could herald the return of war to Yemeni soil.”

Another aspect to consider is that “there might be pressure from Riyadh on the legitimacy [the Yemeni government to make certain concessions to encourage the Houthis toward peace. This matter is fraught with complexities.

“If the Houthis were genuinely committed to achieving peace, their delegation would have reached Riyadh to continue the talks held in April 2023 with Saudi Ambassador Mohammed bin Saeed al-Jaber in the capital, Sana’a.”

In April 2023, an Omani delegation facilitated talks in Sana’a between the Houthi militia in Yemen and an official Saudi delegation led by the Saudi Ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed al-Jaber. These talks, lasting six days, discussed humanitarian issues, a ceasefire in Yemen, and the initiation of a comprehensive political process.

Mohammed also pointed out, “The Sana’a-Jordan route is open, and the number of flights has increased for humanitarian reasons. Ultimately, this implies granting the Houthis more achievements to encourage them towards peace, but they have substantial demands.”

He noted that “among the Houthis’ demands are control over oil-rich areas and other demands related to disbursing salaries to employees from Yemeni state funds, distinct from their income from Hodeidah Port, taxes, and more.”

“Saudi Arabia’s recent rapprochement with the Houthis might follow Riyadh’s closer ties with Tehran. It seems that Iran is exerting pressure on the Houthis to de-escalate in Yemen, a move that might push them to act. However, the Houthis are searching for an opportunity to achieve their primary goal of controlling the oil-rich regions in Marib and Shabwa.”

On March 10, 2023, China brokered an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume their diplomatic relations after a rupture in 2016. This rupture was caused by the burning of the Saudi embassy in Tehran following the execution of Saudi Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr on charges of terrorism.

 

Political Solution

Concurrently with the easing of flight restrictions, Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman announced that he had contacted the President of the Presidential Council in Yemen, Rashad al-Alimi, and conveyed that his country supports a comprehensive political solution to the Yemeni crisis.

Khalid bin Salman affirmed, in a tweet on September 11, 2023, that during the call, they “reviewed the fraternal relations between our two countries and discussed the developments in Yemen.”

As for the possibility of implementing a political solution, Abdulsalam Mohammed stated, “Political solutions in Yemen are still distant. However, there might be two pathways being pursued: military de-escalation and the unofficial extension of the ceasefire, and the second is reaching preliminary solutions for the humanitarian file concerning salaries, fuel, and the economic aspect.”

The United Nations had previously sponsored a six-month ceasefire between the Yemeni army and the Houthi militia, supported by Iran, which ended in October 2022, leading Yemen into a ceasefire-like situation without an official declaration, but occasional armed clashes still occur.

According to Mohammed, “Political solutions involving power-sharing and elections are distant prospects for the current Yemen situation. During this period when there is pressure to achieve de-escalation in the country, we cannot rule out the outbreak of a new war in Yemen.

“No one can predict what will happen in Yemen because the situation is highly complex, especially in the northern regions controlled by the Houthis. There is significant public anger due to the lack of salaries and the deteriorating economy.”

In the south, the legitimate authorities are incapable of providing services to citizens, and all of this threatens a revolution in the country that could completely change the course of events, according to his assessment.

On September 7, the Secretary-General of the Arab League, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, stated that Yemen is currently witnessing a reduction in escalation and a decrease in the intensity of military operations in the country for several months.

Aboul Gheit, during the 160th session of the Arab League Council at the foreign ministers’ level, added that a comprehensive ceasefire and a political settlement are still distant goals.

He pointed out that the Houthi side continuously creates obstacles on the way to maintain the current situation, which involves dividing the country and its institutions and severely weakening Yemen’s economy and capabilities.

He stressed that preserving a unified Yemen with sovereignty over all its national territory, free from external interventions, is the main goal for everyone, confirming the possibility of achieving it if the Houthi side realizes that it can be part of a comprehensive political process rather than the sole controller with military force.