Turkish-Qatari Alignment: How Will It Impact Post-Assad Syria?

For over 13 years, Turkiye and Qatar have maintained a close stance on the Syrian regime, standing together in support of dialogue and a political settlement.

Ousted head of the Syrian regime Bashar al-Assad ignored the calls from both countries and other nations, while the influence of Turkiye and Qatar grew following his fall on December 8, 2024.

Today, both countries are among the most active in guiding Syria towards stability by engaging with its new rulers and providing aid to the suffering Syrian people.

This context helps explain the recent visit of Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani to Turkiye, where he met with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

On December 17, 2024, Sheikh Tamim met Erdogan, who emphasized the need for international cooperation in Syria's reconstruction process.

According to a statement from Turkiye's Directorate of Communications, Erdogan and the Emir discussed bilateral relations between the two countries, along with regional and global issues.

“Turkiye stands by the Syrian people and its administration to preserve Syria's territorial integrity and security,” Erdogan stated during the meeting.

The Turkish president also emphasized that Turkiye will continue to fight all terrorist organizations to safeguard its national security and swiftly end instability in Syria, a stance that will persist.

Turkiye aims to eliminate the threat from northeast Syria, where Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) are stationed, collaborating with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in armed operations against Ankara.

A New Phase

During the operation launched by Syrian revolutionary forces on November 27, 2024, media reports indicated that talks took place between officials from Turkish and Qatari intelligence and foreign ministries.

According to Arab media, it was reported that “a critical meeting was held in the Turkish city of Gaziantep.”

The meeting reportedly involved intelligence heads from Turkiye, Qatar, the U.S., and some Gulf countries, alongside representatives of Syrian opposition groups.

Representing Turkiye was National Intelligence Organization head, Ibrahim Kalin, while the U.S. was represented by CIA Director William Burns, and Qatar by National Security Bureau head Khalfan al-Kaabi, along with intelligence chiefs from Gulf states.

On December 13, 2024, Kalin made headlines by sharing a photo from the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, sparking speculation about the presence of Turkish and Qatari figures in Syria during that visit.

Despite the chaos in Syria, Turkiye and Qatar have managed to stay in the same camp, leading to the emergence of new economic factors alongside political ties.

After the fall of the 61-year-old Ba’ath regime, talks resurfaced about the long-shelved Qatar-Turkiye natural gas pipeline project, which had been frozen in 2009 due to opposition from the Syrian regime.

The pipeline was initially planned to pass through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria, but opposition from Assad's regime at the time halted the project.

Qatar is the world's second-largest exporter of natural gas after Russia, prompting renewed discussions about re-evaluating the pipeline that would run through Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Turkiye.

Ann-Sophie Corbo, an expert at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policies, noted that the pipeline is very long, and buyers will require long-term commitments.

The pipeline's operation could take until 2030, considering Europe's goal to become carbon neutral by 2050.

In this context, Corbo suggests that, for now, there appear to be no significant issues that could lead to disagreements between Turkiye and Qatar.

Turkiye continues to engage with Qatar from the perspective of a long-established state, refraining from viewing Doha as a competitor or part of a separate camp.

In 2023, Erdogan commented on Syria, stating, “We have cooperated with Qatar. Regarding the new housing project, we will ensure that one million people return within a few years.”

Today, Qatar is expected to be the financial source, while Turkiye represents the ground force. Both sides are likely to form multiple alliances, both politically and in the reconstruction of Syria.

The Role of the U.S. and ‘Israel’

On the other hand, the United States and “Israel” could play a crucial role in shaping Syria's future, as both support the establishment of a Kurdish state along the Turkish border.

The Israeli occupation of parts of Syria and the U.S.'s control over various Kurdish factions will likely lead to significant discussions and exchanges of ideas.

Given Turkiye and Qatar's influence on the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, “Israel” and the U.S. cannot afford to ignore these two countries, providing justification for continued relations.

As such, it is natural for U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies to maintain ties with both nations, as evidenced by their visits to Qatar aimed at achieving a ceasefire in Gaza.

Meanwhile, the U.S., in its efforts to maintain control over the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), continues to engage with Turkiye.

It was also announced that communications had taken place with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the group that led the battle to oust Bashar al-Assad.

Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army, supported by Turkiye, could unite under a new entity, potentially prompting allied or opposing factions to reassess their positions.

As for “Israel,” its “goal” to control the Golan Heights, along with its airstrikes on military equipment belonging to the former regime, opens the door to various possibilities and scenarios.

The recent appearance of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, accompanied by a special delegation in the Mount Hermon area along the Syrian border on December 17, reflects Israeli Occupation’s growing ambitions toward what it calls the “promised lands.”

Media reports suggest that “Israel” has occupied 370 km² of Syrian territory, surpassing the size of Gaza, which is 365 km².

The Arab Position

Turning to Arab countries, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt have previously supported active factions in the Syrian conflict, shaping positions that serve their interests.

Public reports have emerged about the UAE’s relationship with the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which seems aimed at influencing separatist groups in coordination with the United States.

Egypt, despite its influence on Syria's social fabric, has not capitalized on the opportunity, largely due to its opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Egyptian media loyal to the regime have connected the Brotherhood, classified as a terrorist group in Egypt, to the “Islamists” who ousted Assad.

However, Egypt and Syria’s shared history of political unity makes it difficult for Cairo to ignore events in Damascus, particularly with the impact of Israeli massacres in Gaza affecting Egypt's regional influence.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan clarified Turkiye’s stance on December 16, 2024, stating, “We do not want Iranian, Turkish, or Arab hegemony over Syria,” stressing the need for neutrality in dealing with the Syrian issue.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, through its Vision 2030, seeks to expand its regional influence, positioning itself as “the protector of Arab peoples.”

Reports indicate that relations between Saudi Arabia and “Israel” have significantly improved recently, which could bolster Riyadh's role in Syria.

On December 18, 2024, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reaffirmed his country’s support for the Syrian people and Syria’s stability.

He also condemned “Israeli violations of international laws through its attacks on Syrian territory.”

A ceasefire in Gaza could lead to further rapprochement between these nations regarding Syria, leading to a reassessment of shared interests.

As for the agenda of these countries concerning the Syrian revolution forces, it is shaped by their priorities to influence the future governance of Syria and ensure their interests are realized.

After the fall of Assad, high-level diplomats from eight Arab countries, along with Turkiye, met in Jordan to discuss the Syrian issue.

The meeting attendees announced their support for a peaceful transition process in the post-Assad phase, signaling their desire to play a prominent role in the upcoming stage.

A report from the National Intelligence Academy highlighted the positions of Gulf countries on Syria, with Qatar and Kuwait refusing to normalize relations with the regime and continuing to support the revolution.

In contrast, the UAE and Saudi Arabia supported the regime, while Oman maintained a neutral relationship and accelerated the normalization process with it.

The idea of managing Syria through an alliance without Assad did not receive public backing from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, or Oman.

The report also noted that the absence of a unified stance among the Gulf Cooperation Council countries could lead to shifts in their policies in the future.

Syria has always been a key and essential player in the region, and the conflict there has influenced regional and global balances since its inception.

In general, the key players in shaping Syria's future include Turkiye, Iran, Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, the Kurdish factions, Lebanon, Hezbollah, and “Israel.”

These parties are expected to contribute to determining the course of the Syrian equation in the coming months.

With Turkey returning to cooperation with the Gulf countries, cautious discussions are expected to take place to avoid damaging bilateral relations.

The regional and international dynamics seem unlikely to hinder these relationships, but they will be managed with calculated steps based on shared interests.