To Shield Its Regime from Trump’s Wrath: Iran’s Moves to Safeguard Its Nuclear Program

The U.S. precondition for nuclear talks with Iran has raised pressing questions about Tehran’s willingness to comply, as Washington ramps up pressure on the Islamic Republic and its allies.

The Trump administration has pursued a “maximum pressure” strategy to push Iran into negotiations for a new nuclear agreement.

During his first term, Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal brokered under Barack Obama. Now, he is pressing for a new agreement with stricter conditions.

A New U.S. Precondition

The latest U.S. demand for nuclear talks requires Iran to halt the activities of its regional proxies, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who disclosed the condition on March 12, 2025.

In an interview published on the Russian Foreign Ministry's website, Lavrov affirmed Moscow's support for a framework to “advance the nuclear agreement,” but voiced concerns over Washington’s insistence on political preconditions, including Tehran halting its support for groups in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria.

Lavrov described these conditions as “troubling and worrisome,” affirming Moscow’s continued commitment to upholding and implementing the existing nuclear deal.

This comes as the U.S. pushes for a new nuclear agreement with stricter terms than its predecessor.

While Iran has yet to officially respond, IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami warned against falling into what he called Washington’s “negotiation trap,” stressing that past experiences with the nuclear deal should serve as a lesson to avoid repeating past mistakes.

Speaking to Iran’s official IRNA agency on March 15, Salami asserted that negotiating under threat is impossible for the Islamic Republic.

He said resistance against arrogance is a Quranic principle and a pillar of the Islamic system. As guided by the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, divine victory will come through the resilience of the Iranian people, according to Salami.

The IRGC Commander Major General emphasized that for 46 years, Iran’s vigilant and steadfast people have stood firm against all threats.

He highlighted Washington's past actions—such as “tearing up the nuclear agreement” and resorting to aggressive tactics like political pressure, cultural warfare, sanctions, and military threats—as proof of its unreliability.

Describing Iran’s adversaries as “ruthless and devoid of logic,” he stated, “They adhere to no human values whatsoever.”

“The only thing they respect is power,” Salami continued. “In this direct confrontation, their advances can only be stopped through resilience, unity, and solidarity.”

He also cited the crimes of the U.S. and “Israel” in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Afghanistan as proof that these adversaries break promises and disregard all commitments and treaties, warning that negotiating with them would be a grave mistake.

On March 13, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei echoed this sentiment, dismissing U.S. calls for talks as a deception, arguing that negotiations would not solve any problems or lift sanctions.

His remarks followed a message, reportedly conveyed by a senior Emirati official, in which Trump expressed his desire to strike a deal to halt Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

On March 6, Trump warned that Iran could face “military action” if it refused to engage in negotiations over a new nuclear agreement.

Possible Capitulation

Middle East researcher Iyad Thabet stated that Iran is likely to comply with U.S. demands to abandon its regional proxies, asserting, “Tehran will agree to whatever Washington wants in this regard to preserve its regime.”

“The Iranian regime prioritizes survival above all, viewing its proxies as frontline defenders—but it will abandon them if they become a threat, regardless of sectarian ties,” Thabet told Al-Estiklal.

“Iran abandoned Hezbollah in its war with Israel, despite the group being the crown jewel of its regional axis. It also left Bashar al-Assad’s regime to face its downfall alone in Syria and offered nothing to Gaza, which fought against Israeli Occupation unaided, aside from rhetorical support.”

“Iran will ultimately forsake the Houthis in Yemen in the face of U.S. strikes, especially after Trump’s warnings. For Tehran, these proxies serve as bargaining chips with the West, and it is prepared to sacrifice them at any moment, bowing to American pressure to ensure its regime’s survival,” he added.

On March 15, Trump demanded that Iran “immediately cease” its support for the “terrorist Houthis” in Yemen following what he described as “decisive” military strikes against them.

“Iran has never been weaker regionally than it is today, following successive blows to its proxies—from Hezbollah’s unprecedented crisis to the collapse of its influence in Syria after Assad’s fall, and the decline of its militias in Iraq and Yemen,” Khaled Abou Bakr wrote on Shorouk News.

“The Iranian regime is battered and in desperate need of a strategic pause to regroup, reassess, and prevent further deterioration.”

“A new nuclear deal could offer Tehran this respite, even temporarily, allowing it to consolidate internal gains and rebuild its regional influence,” the Egyptian writer added.

“Iran is in no position to gamble. Slogans won’t save it, its economy is crumbling, Israel is waiting for an opportunity, and Russia is watching for its own interests.”

“Refusing negotiations with Washington may appear as a show of strength, but in reality, it reflects weakness and an attempt to delay the inevitable,” said Abou Bakr.

“Either return to negotiations or face even worse scenarios—at best, internal turmoil threatening the regime’s survival.”

Lebanese writer Elissa al-Hashem noted that since the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, Tehran has pursued an indirect expansionist strategy, recognizing that direct confrontations with its adversaries would not guarantee the regime’s survival.

Thus, “Iran devised a strategy of forward defense, pushing conflict zones far from its borders and establishing a regional network to shield itself internally and externally.”

“This policy enabled Iran to construct a sphere of influence stretching from Tehran to the Mediterranean, capitalizing on regional conflicts and supporting armed groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iraqi militias, and loyalist factions in Syria,” she added.

Over time, these proxies became essential tools for Tehran to safeguard its geopolitical ambitions, pressure its adversaries, and maintain military and diplomatic leverage.

However, al-Hashem warned that “Iran now faces unprecedented challenges that threaten its survival. Regional shifts, economic collapse, internal protests, and international pressure are all pushing Tehran from expansion mode to a fight for regime survival. Is the empire it built over decades now beginning to crumble?”

Only Two Outcomes

“There are two ways Iran can be handled: militarily, or you make a deal,” Trump said. “I would prefer to make a deal, because I'm not looking to hurt Iran.”

“I'm not sure that everybody agrees with me, but we can make a deal that would be just as good as if you won militarily,” Trump told FOX Business’ Maria Bartiromo on “Mornings with Maria,” noting that time is running out to make a deal.

He hinted at imminent developments, saying, “There'll be some interesting days ahead. That’s all I can tell you.”

The U.S. president also confirmed that he had sent a message to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urging Iran to reach a nuclear agreement with Washington.

“I’ve written them a letter saying, ‘I hope you’re going to negotiate because if we have to go in militarily, it’s going to be a terrible thing.’” 

On March 9, White House National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes echoed Trump’s stance, stating in a press release that Washington's approach toward Tehran would be “either militarily or a deal.”

“We hope the Iran Regime puts its people and best interests ahead of terror," White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said in a statement on March 9.

Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, following a meeting between Russian and U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia, confirmed that Moscow had offered to participate in nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran.

According to a Bloomberg report on March 4, Russia agreed to assist the Trump administration in engaging with Iran on various issues, including its nuclear program and its support for anti-U.S. proxies in the region.

Peskov said “Russia believes that the United States and Iran should resolve all problems through negotiations” and that Moscow “is ready to do everything in its power to achieve this.”