Strained Borders: Greece Faces Surge in Migrant Arrivals

Greece remains a key destination for irregular migrants seeking to reach the "Old Continent," driven by hopes of escaping war and persecution in their home countries in search of a better life.

In the latest figures, Syrians made up the majority of asylum seekers arriving on Greek shores in 2024, outnumbering Afghans, Egyptians, and Palestinians.

Surge in Refugee Arrivals

On November 7, 2024, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported that approximately 28,400 asylum seekers had arrived in Greece during the first eight months of the year.

The agency revealed that Syrians made up 36% of this total, followed by Afghans at 25%, Egyptians at 12%, and Palestinians at 4%. 

The report also noted a sharp rise in arrivals, with a 94% increase compared to the same period in 2023, when around 14,700 asylum seekers were recorded.

According to the UNHCR, the majority of new arrivals in 2024 were received by the Dodecanese Islands (39%), followed by Lesbos (20%), Samos (14%), Chios (10%), and other islands (17%). 

These figures only account for registered arrivals, while many migrants continue to evade detection as they attempt to move onward to other European countries like Germany and Belgium, despite transiting through Greece’s islands.

Greece, along with Italy and other southern European countries on the frontline of Europe’s refugee crisis, has long called on the European Union for increased support in managing the situation. However, these countries argue that they have not received sufficient assistance.

According to the UNHCR, more than 48,000 migrants were registered as arriving in Greece in 2024.

Over 42,000 of them entered the country via the Aegean Islands, while another 6,000 crossed the long land border separating Greece from Turkiye, just a few nautical miles from those islands.

Greek authorities monitor migrant arrivals to the islands and attempt to process them by placing them in camps for registration or issuing temporary mobility permits, which some migrants use to make their way to other EU countries to seek asylum.

Currently, the camps on the islands are operating at full capacity (100%), while those on the mainland are only 55% full, providing some flexibility should the number of arrivals increase.

Despite tragic reports of migrant boats capsizing in the Mediterranean, the perilous journey from Turkiye, Lebanon, and, to a lesser extent, from Syria and Libya, continues to rise.

A senior Greek official, speaking on condition of anonymity on October 24, 2024, revealed that Greece is seeking to discuss tougher measures with Turkiye and the EU to combat the activities of smugglers operating on its territory.

“We are not doing enough about migrant smugglers,” the Greek official said. “We are raising the issue with our European peers and our Turkish neighbors.”

Dublin Stamp

Commenting on the statistics, Mahmoud al-Issa, a Syrian lawyer based in Germany, explained that Greece deliberately pushes migrants towards other European countries, particularly when its detention facilities are at full capacity, which the government states is 50,000 people.

He told Al-Estiklal that "Greece, as a key starting point to other European countries such as Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands, may offer these countries an opportunity by allowing migrants to pass through its territory, easing the burden on them, despite receiving aid from the European Union."

"What makes Greece an undesirable destination for many refugees is the variety of routes to its islands, combined with their desire to join relatives in certain European countries or to benefit from the advantages that other EU countries provide, which Greece does not."

"Some individuals receive a Dublin fingerprint in Greece, then travel to countries like Germany and Belgium, beginning the process of breaking the fingerprint by hiring a lawyer."

"Some are successful in this, obtaining asylum, though it is a lengthy process, and many are willing to wait and follow legal routes to secure asylum," al-Issa noted.

The Dublin Agreement, signed on June 15, 1990, in the Irish capital, was later ratified by European Union member states, including Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland.

Under the Dublin Regulation, the fingerprints of any asylum seeker are taken in the first country they enter—among the signatories of the agreement—and are recorded in a shared database.

This allows authorities to determine whether the applicant has previously applied for asylum in another EU country. If so, the responsible country is deemed not competent to process their claim, and they are returned to the first country where their fingerprints were taken.

Al-Issa pointed out that "Germany offers more job opportunities and higher wages than Greece. The success story of Syrian refugees—numbering over a million—has driven Germany to absorb new refugees for purely economic reasons."

"Refugees are driving Europe's economy, in one way or another, and the term 'the Old Continent' is indeed a reality. Migrants, after 2015, have contributed to a new wave of economic revival, breathing new life into European markets."

"Greece intentionally turns a blind eye to migrants, allowing them to pass through the country toward other EU states. There are many reasons for this, primarily the desire of refugees to choose a country other than Greece, alongside the logistical challenges and the capacity limits, or the inability to provide adequate healthcare for those coming from war zones, who may suffer from chronic health issues."

"The Greek islands lack sufficient staff, police officers, and coast guard personnel to properly register new arrivals before transferring them to overcrowded camps on the islands," al-Issa added.

Tougher Migration Policies

In late October 2024, Greece’s Migration and Asylum Minister, Nikos Panagiotopoulos, stated that the country is seeking to implement stricter EU migration policies as it prepares for a potential increase in the number of migrants and refugees due to the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.

Panagiotopoulos noted that the government is considering the construction of new detention facilities on the islands of Rhodes and Crete, following a sharp rise in sea arrivals that more than doubled starting in the fall of 2024.

Panagiotopoulos told the private TV channel Action 24 that “based on current data, we project that by year’s end, approximately 50,000 migrants will have entered our country.”

He explained that most migrants are arriving from Turkiye’s coast, as well as from North Africa, with many fleeing the turmoil in the Middle East. 

However, Panagiotopoulos added, "We are certainly seeing some flow from Lebanon, but we have not yet seen the spike we might expect from widespread conflict there."

This new wave of migration to Europe comes as the historic EU migration deal, agreed upon in mid-2024, is expected to come into effect in 2026, after another round of negotiations.

Greek officials have indicated they are pushing for amendments to the deal in order to introduce stronger deportation policies and more stringent external border controls.

From the EU's perspective, limited legal migration routes, coupled with increasing migration pressures, could lead to a repeat of the 2015 refugee crisis.

Yet, the political landscape today is significantly different. 

Rising support for anti-immigration parties has deepened social divisions over refugee acceptance. 

Public opinion is shifting toward demands for stricter border controls and a reduction in migrant intake.

This anti-immigration sentiment has only intensified since the 2024 European Parliament elections, when conservative and far-right parties made significant political gains.

As migration flows expand, Europe faces the challenge of balancing immediate humanitarian needs with longer-term issues of refugee resettlement and integration.

However, the current political climate presents significant obstacles to achieving this balance, particularly as the ongoing Israeli aggression in Lebanon has driven Syrian, Palestinian, and Lebanese refugees to embark on dangerous sea journeys toward Europe.