Russian and American Forces: How the Battle for Influence in Africa is Intensifying

Amid the general collapse of Western influence in Africa, Russia has begun establishing an African Legion to serve its interests, causing concern in Washington and among its allies, with speculation about forming a similar force to counter it.

According to the Russian newspaper, Vedomosti, in December 2023, Moscow started forming the African Legion to replace the Wagner mercenary forces. Its structure will be completed by the summer of 2024, and it will operate in Libya, Burkina Faso, Mali, the Central African Republic, and Niger.

It confirmed that the new structure will be directly subordinate to the Russian military administration and will be overseen by Deputy Minister of Defense Colonel General Yunus-bek Yevkurov.

Power Struggle 

The Russian presence in Libya, which has been noticeable since 2019 in the form of paramilitary units (formerly Wagner), has accelerated significantly since the beginning of 2024, alarming the helpless Western powers, according to a report by Le Monde on May 10, 2024.

The rise of Russian power in Libya, a key state in North Africa and a bridge between the Maghreb and the Mashreq, has severely troubled the West, as reported by Le Monde citing Western diplomatic sources.

A European diplomat told the newspaper that "the increase is more about equipment than personnel. These recent moves in Libya are part of a global Russian strategy to establish pro-Moscow governments throughout East and West Africa."

He noted that the remaining step for Russia to split Africa into two would be extending its influence on Chad, a country Russia is keen to bring into its camp.

Le Monde views Libya as crucial in this Russian African offensive, acting as a hub for sending equipment and personnel to neighboring countries like Sudan, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, all led by military councils close to the Kremlin.

A memo published by All Eyes on Wagner, a project focusing on the activities of Wagner mercenaries, on May 10, 2024, confirmed that Russia has been transferring soldiers and fighters to Libya for the past three months.

This international organization investigating Russian networks in Africa revealed that the delivery of military equipment and vehicles from Syria to Libya is the most visible aspect of this increased intervention.

The organization has observed the deployment of 1,800 Russians across Libya so far, noting that two Russian navy ships left the Syrian Tartus naval base and arrived at the Libyan port of Tobruk, under the control of rebel Khalifa Haftar, on April 8, 2024.

Al-Jufra, a Libyan area 350 kilometers south of the Gulf of Sirte, is central to this strategy for the new system, where equipment and personnel arrive from Tobruk before being redirected to regional theaters that Moscow is greedy about.

The All Eyes on Wagner investigative team confirmed the unloading of vehicles and weapons, such as 2S12 Sani mortars and BTR and BMB armored transport vehicles. This was the fifth delivery of Russian arms to Libya in 45 days, as part of the Russian African Legion.

Direct Involvement 

Jalel Harchaoui, a political scientist specializing in North Africa, with a specific focus on Libya, and a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies, told Le Monde that Russia no longer hides its direct involvement in Libya, unlike when Wagner militias first entered Libya in 2019.

In 2019, Wagner mercenaries entered to support rebel forces led by Khalifa Haftar in Cyrenaica during his failed assault on Tripoli. Moscow officially denied this support at the time, but today it hides nothing.

Russian Deputy Minister of Defense Yunus-bek Yevkurov has made four visits to Benghazi, Haftar's political and military base, since August 2023.

Haftar, who established an authority in Cyrenaica parallel to the internationally recognized government in Tripoli, visited Moscow at the end of September 2023 and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Since then, the Russian presence has become more visible, with the Ministry of Defense in Moscow taking over the African branch of the Russian mercenary group, Wagner, which was decapitated following the death of its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in August 2023.

Le Monde reports that "in the face of Russian advances in Libya, alarm bells have sounded in Western countries that are struggling to respond, as the U.S. and Europe face two challenges due to the risk of Moscow's influence spreading to regional fringes."

The first challenge is the potential establishment of a Russian military presence in the form of a naval base in Tobruk or Sirte, which would pose a direct threat to NATO forces in the Mediterranean.

The idea of a Russian base in Sirte is an old one that Moscow failed to impose on former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2009-2010, but the city is now under the control of Haftar, under whose umbrella Russian forces operate and support his troops.

The second challenge, as Le Monde explains, is that in addition to its military influence in Cyrenaica (Tobruk and Sirte) and southern Fezzan, Moscow is also engaging in diplomatic activities in Tripoli to dissuade it from cooperating with the U.S.

Rival Legion 

Libya Press reported on May 3, 2024, citing Libyan sources, that under US-European supervision and with Libyan financial support, the new American Legion is being formed to counter the Russian Legion in Libya.

It confirmed that the new legion will consist entirely of Libyan armed elements, with leadership and supervision entrusted to foreign military personnel.

It explained that it would be composed of six armed formations affiliated with the Interior and Defense Ministries of Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh's government, most notably the 444 Brigade.

The primary mission of this Libyan-American-European legion is to counter Russian influence in Libya and Africa on behalf of Western countries.

It noted that a special budget for this legion has been allocated from Libyan funds frozen abroad under UN Security Council Resolution 1973 of 2011.

Supporting these reports of US-European efforts, Brigadier General Mahmoud Hamza, commander of the 444 Brigade, participated in the African and American Intelligence Directors Conference in Tanzania on May 9, 2024.

The conference, which brought together 33 African countries, included the Libyan military delegate as the director of military intelligence, who engaged in meetings with American officials.

Libyan sources confirmed that Hamza participated on behalf of Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh in the African and American intelligence directors conference in Tanzania.

He reportedly met with intelligence directors of the U.S. Central Command (AFRICOM) to discuss the idea of the Libyan-American-European legion, although other Libyan sources denied this.

Hamza is one of Dbeibeh's closest associates, having joined the RADA Forces, served as its spokesman, and led its operations before founding a separate battalion named "20-20" in Mitiga after splitting from the former.

New Training 

Further supporting these reports, Africa Intelligence confirmed on April 9, 2024, that the American company Amentum is working on training armed groups in Tripoli as part of its security strategy in Libya.

According to the intelligence site, elements of the American military contracting company Amentum (based in Virginia) arrived in Libya under an agreement with Dbeibeh to provide training to several armed groups in the capital Tripoli.

Africa Intelligence indicated that American military contractors will train elements from three specific armed brigades: the 444 Brigade led by Mahmoud Hamza, the 111 Brigade led by Abdul Salam Zoubi, and the 166 Brigade led by Mohammed Alhassan.

However, Le Monde reported that training efforts are coordinated between Amentum and the U.S. State Department "aiming to unify these various armed factions and task them with securing borders and disarmament operations, without this work being carried out under AFRICOM's auspices."

It noted that "U.S. support for these Libyan armed groups could provide a political lifeline for Dbeibeh, who faces calls from many Libyan politicians to step down and make way for a new government."

Following news of the arrival of American military engineering contractors in Libya, the el-Mansher website reported on April 15, 2024, citing Libyan sources, that the U.S. military is preparing to establish an AFRICOM airbase in Libya.

The sources indicated that Dbeibeh granted a plot of land from the Aviation College in Misrata to U.S. forces for the purpose of establishing the airbase, as part of his attempts to remain in power and strengthen his ties with Washington.

The Defense and National Security Committee of the Libyan House of Representatives, which opposes Dbeibeh, criticized the decision to allocate land in Misrata to foreign forces and called on the Tripoli government to cancel it.

In response, Ezzeddine Aqeel, the head of the Libyan Republican Coalition Party and a political analyst, expressed his concern that "Libya is indeed at risk of becoming an arena for settling scores between the great powers."

In a press statement on May 5, 2024, he said that Western countries intend to intervene to counter Russian influence in Libya, but they will face a dilemma dealing with militias in the Western region.

He predicted that only the armed elements in Libya that can align with Western interests will remain.