Opposition Challenges Erdogan: How Turkiye Entered a New Phase of Political Conflict

Turkiye's political landscape is at a pivotal moment as the opposition challenges President Recep Tayyip Erdogan by calling for early elections.

This has sparked controversy, with differing assessments of the feasibility and effectiveness of the move given the current balance of power.

On the one hand, some believe the timing of the call favors the opposition, especially with the worsening economic crises and growing popular discontent with the policies of the ruling party.

Others believe that the constitutional system, amended in 2017, gives Erdogan powerful tools to remain in power, even as opposition voices rise.

They believe that legal action alone may not be enough to change the rules of the game unless it is accompanied by widespread popular pressure.

Between street pressure and judicial tactics, Turkiye appears to be on the cusp of a new phase of political conflict, with no immediate solution in sight, but rather an escalating confrontation between the ruling party and the opposition.

The massive demonstration in Maltepe, Istanbul, on March 29 marked a turning point in the opposition's anti-government movement. 

After that event, street protests subsided somewhat, and the opposition shifted to alternative pressure tools, most notably signature campaigns and economic boycotts, believing that diversification might be more effective at this stage.

Political Pressure

In the weeks following the imprisonment of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a member of the Republican People's Party (CHP), on corruption charges, Ozgur Ozel became the face of the largest protests to sweep the country in more than a decade.

Ozel, 50, had been a relatively low-profile leader of the CHP, the main opposition party, until Imamoglu's arrest on March 19. Since then, however, his name has risen to the forefront, both domestically and internationally.

Imamoglu has long been seen as the only Turkish politician capable of challenging President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the ballot box, especially after 15 million CHP supporters chose him on March 23 as their presidential candidate in the 2028 election.

While protesters, opposition parties, and human rights groups say the proceedings against the Istanbul mayor are politically motivated and anti-democratic, the government denies any influence over the judiciary and maintains that the courts are independent.

At an extraordinary CHP congress in Ankara on April 6, dedicated to re-electing its leader, Ozel won the confidence of delegates again with an overwhelming majority of 1,171 votes out of 1,276.

He subsequently challenged President Erdogan to call early presidential and parliamentary elections no later than November, stating that the government's legitimacy was in question.

“In less than a week, we have collected 7.2 million signatures to support our candidate (Imamoglu) and hold early elections. This campaign will constitute the largest vote of no confidence in global political history,” he said.

He also accused the government of adopting authoritarian methods and described it as a junta ruling the country.

Ozel challenged Erdogan to say whether he received approval from the Trump administration for Imamoglu's recent arrest.

The Turkish opposition has recently escalated its protests to support Imamoglu as a presidential candidate and demand early elections, mobilizing continuously to support the protests.

To this end, Ozel pledged to continue protesting every Saturday in a different city and every Wednesday evening in Istanbul.

He also called for a boycott of a number of brands, as well as for April 2 to be a nationwide consumer boycott day, to pressure the government.

Fascist Opposition

On the other hand, the Turkish government, led by an alliance comprising the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), is firmly opposing calls for early elections and insisting on holding the constitutional deadlines as scheduled in 2028.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emphasized on more than one occasion that Turkiye faces four years without elections, and that it is unacceptable to plunge the country back into an electoral climate amid economic and security challenges that require focus and action.

He believes that the escalation of the opposition at this time aims to destabilize the stability achieved after the 2023 elections.

He noted that the calls for early elections reflect, in part, intense internal competition among the opposition components themselves.

In the same context, MHP leader Devlet Bahceli was clearer and more firm, saying: “There is no need to waste time collecting signatures. The political will of the People's Alliance is clear: the elections will be held on time.”

He emphasized that the opposition is preoccupied with unrealistic demands at a time when the country needs political and economic stability.

He asserted that the ruling alliance will not relinquish what he called the People's trust, which President Erdogan won at the ballot box less than two years ago.

In a speech to his party members on April 8, Erdogan accused the main opposition party of trying to obstruct a major corruption investigation against the imprisoned mayor of Istanbul by shouting and accusing state institutions of being politicized.

Erdogan pointed out that the CHP has not only written the book on corruption, but also the book on coups in this country, considering the largest opposition party in his country to be the living embodiment of fascism.

He accused the opposition of inciting youth and pushing them into clashes with the police to cover up corruption cases, emphasizing that youth are not fuel for their political ambitions.

“Over the past three weeks, the street protests have evolved into an attack targeting our nation's peace and the gains of the Turkish economy through Ozel's unconscious statement and his call to boycott national companies,” he added.

He also noted that the national companies targeted by the boycott have been harassed and threatened by marginal left-wing organizations that have become the Black Shirts of the main opposition party.

In a veiled threat to confront the protests that the CHP will continue to organize over Imamoglu's detention, Erdogan said, “From now on, our nation will not cede the square to the CHP's fascism.”

It is worth noting that Erdogan's lawyer recently filed a lawsuit against Ozel for insult after he said this week that the president leads a junta that orchestrated a civilian coup against democracy.

Internal Rivalry

In May 2023, the CHP lost a fiercely contested presidential campaign to Erdogan, leaving the party in crisis.

Six months later, the CHP's annual congress voted to replace longtime leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu—who had led the party since 2010—with Ozel, who won by a majority of 812 votes to 536.

With Imamoglu's support, Ozel stated that he wanted to write a new history and reshape Turkish politics, adding that by electing him, voters wanted to open the door to a new political climate in our country.

A few months after Ozel took over the party leadership, the CHP won a landslide victory in the March 2024 local elections.

It also retained control of Istanbul and Ankara and expanded into some Anatolian provinces previously considered Erdogan strongholds.

Observers say it is too early to consider Ozel as a presidential candidate, but if Imamoglu is barred from running, Ozel would be in the best position.

Ozel would also have no difficulty eliminating his other rival, Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas, from the presidential race, arguing that he cannot attract the votes of leftist and Kurdish voters, and that the party leader is the natural candidate for the presidency.

In turn, Mahmoud Alloush, a researcher specializing in Turkish affairs, told Al-Estiklal that “Imamoglu's nomination as a contender for the presidency means that Turkiye has entered a long-term political battle.”

“Although the CHP base has Imamoglu at the forefront of its candidacy, divisions within the party and political circumstances may change this situation over time,” he added.

Mr. Alloush believes that there do not appear to be any indications of early elections within the next two years, noting that the Turkish government is preoccupied with sensitive international issues, such as the Syrian crisis, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the Palestinian issue.