Italy's Bold Diplomacy with Syria: Economic Revival, Migration, and EU Policy Shifts

Italy is not only rebuilding bridges with the Syrian regime, but also playing a central role in easing tensions between the European Union and Damascus.

In a significant move towards closer ties, the Syrian regime announced the reopening of its consulate in Rome, along with the resumption of consular services for Syrians in Italy's capital.

Italy's Syria Strategy

On November 12, 2024, the Syrian consulate announced via its Facebook page that it had “begun providing consular services to the Syrian community.”

This move comes after Rome appointed its special envoy to Syria, Stefano Ravagnan, as ambassador to Damascus on July 26, 2024.

Italy had severed diplomatic ties with Syria in March 2012 in response to the brutal crackdown by Bashar al-Assad's regime against the revolution. 

However, recently, Italy, along with seven other EU member states, has urged the European Union to adopt a more proactive stance on Syria.

In a letter to EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell, the group highlighted the ongoing migration of Syrians, stressing the pressure on neighboring countries and the potential for new waves of refugees due to escalating regional tensions.

The letter was signed by Italy alongside Austria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Greece, Croatia, Slovenia, and Slovakia.

Italy's Il Foglio newspaper reported in early November 2024 that the Italian government had successfully persuaded the European Union to appoint a special envoy to Syria, with former Austrian ambassador to Turkiye and Egypt, Christian Berger, selected for the role.

The newspaper described the appointment as “the result of Italian diplomatic work in Brussels” positioning Rome as the key player in the push for normalization of relations with al-Assad.

Italy's Foreign Minister, Antonio Tajani, confirmed on July 26, 2024, that Borrell had “tasked the European External Action Service (EEAS) to study what can be done.”

“tasked the European External Action Service to study what can be done.” 

Il Foglio noted that the next step would likely involve convincing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to acknowledge safe zones in Syria as a means of facilitating the return of refugees, with Berlin reportedly becoming more open to discussions with al-Assad on migration issues.

Italy has adopted a more lenient approach towards the Syrian regime compared to some NATO allies. 

Rome declined to join its Western partners in military operations against al-Assad’s regime, instead pursuing a more independent strategy that has focused on dialogue with Damascus outside of the EU's collective foreign policy framework.

Under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the Italian government has emphasized its aim to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees while also addressing the populist and right-wing demands to curb migration through engagement with countries of origin.

However, the prospects for voluntary return under al-Assad's regime remain grim. 

Human rights reports continue to document the regime’s hostility towards returning Syrians, with many reporting detention upon their return. 

The Syrian Network for Human Rights documented the arrest of at least 26 people, including a woman, during their return from Lebanon to Syria between September 23 and October 25, 2024, with one detainee reportedly killed under torture.

Despite the UN Human Rights Council reaffirming in September 2024 that Syria remains unsafe for the return of refugees, Meloni told the Italian Senate in October 2024 that “it is necessary to review the European Union Strategy for Syria and to work with all actors, to create the conditions for Syrian refugees to return to their homeland in a voluntary, safe and sustainable way.”

The Refugee Card

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is leading efforts to pressure the European Union into revising its policies on Syria, holding separate talks with like-minded heads of state to encourage the return of more refugees to their home countries.

Italy’s push to place Syria back on the EU agenda and make it a top priority comes amid the ongoing suffering of the Syrian people, with over 16 million in need of life-saving aid.

Remarkably, this crisis extends far beyond Syria’s borders, as the country remains the source of the world’s largest refugee crisis, with 13.8 million internally displaced persons and refugees abroad out of a total population of 24 million.

The Syrian opposition argues that the solution lies not in Europe turning to al-Assad's regime to stem the flow of migrants, but in enforcing a political solution. 

They call for the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2254, adopted in 2015, which demands a democratic transition of power in Syria through four key areas: “Governance, a new constitution, elections and combating “terrorism” in the country.”

The Syrian Negotiation Commission, in a meeting with a UN political and development delegation in New York at the end of October 2024, reiterated that Syria remains unsafe for the return of refugees under the current conditions.

The Commission, which is affiliated with the opposition Syrian National Coalition, also pointed to the EU’s stance that Syria is an unsafe country, with the return of refugees only feasible if the international community commits to a political solution in line with international resolutions.

However, Italy appears to be exerting pressure on the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to assess whether certain areas in Syria can be deemed safe for the return of specific groups of asylum seekers.

After Italy signed a five-year agreement with Albania in November 2023, some observers fear a similar deal could be struck between Rome and Damascus to return Syrians who have recently arrived from al-Assad-controlled areas via the Mediterranean. 

These migrants, it is argued, are not fleeing direct security threats but rather the dire living conditions under the regime.

Under the Albania agreement, the country has agreed to offer Italian-funded accommodation for migrants and asylum seekers, with up to 36,000 individuals potentially relocated annually. 

The Albanian model applies only to those rescued at sea by Italian authorities and to individuals from countries that Italy designates as safe countries of origin.

Nevertheless, a recent ruling by the European Court of Justice stipulated that a country can only be considered “safe” if its entire territory is secure, not just parts of it.

This ruling appears to undermine any potential agreement with Syria, as the UNHCR has repeatedly stated that Syria cannot be deemed “safe” as a whole. 

Ongoing conditions on the ground, including continued bombardment by al-Assad’s forces in opposition-held areas in northwestern Syria, make it impossible to guarantee the safety of returnees.

Al-Assad’s Share

Nevertheless, Italy appears determined to strike a deal with al-Assad, whom the West has long branded a "butcher," seemingly attempting to reframe him from Rome’s perspective as "less evil" in Europe’s eyes.

As one of the Group of Seven (G7) nations—alongside Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—Italy is the first country to appoint an ambassador to Syria since the outbreak of the civil war. 

It has also become the seventh European nation to reopen an embassy in Damascus, joining Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, and Hungary.

In this context, Euronews stated that “EU countries discuss voluntary return of Syrian refugees, despite unsafe conditions.”

According to Al-Estiklal, sources added "We are not talking about deportations, but about voluntary returns to areas that can be considered less risky," referring to areas under al-Assad’s control, which continue to suffer from high unemployment, soaring prices, a collapsed currency, rampant inflation, poor services, and a repressive security apparatus that continues to arrest and torture opponents.

The urgency of Italy’s request will be determined by the potential migration crisis posed by the possibility of Syrians heading to the EU. 

Diplomatic sources said that some 400,000 displaced Syrians, primarily from Syria and Lebanon, could make their way to Europe.

“The Cypriots are terrified, and the Greeks will follow,” as reported by Al-Estiklal.

Under the current right-wing government led by Giorgia Meloni, Italy has tightened its immigration policies, introducing stricter laws on the acceptance of irregular migrants arriving by sea. 

However, observers argue that the Syrian regime is unlikely to offer Rome a free pass on normalization, as it continues to seek to lift the European sanctions imposed on it since 2011.

After Syria was reinstated into the Arab League in May 2023, al-Assad was relieved and has been actively seeking ways to revive his declining economy and improve ties with European countries, regardless of the terms.

As a result, it remains uncertain how successful Italy will be in breaking the deadlock in relations between al-Assad’s regime and the EU, particularly in terms of easing sanctions.

In mid-October 2024, the EU Council extended sanctions related to the use of chemical weapons, including measures targeting the Syrian regime, adding 25 individuals and three entities to the sanctions list for an additional year, until October 16, 2025.

It was also notable that Italy has begun reassessing its financial support for Syria’s political opposition, including the Syrian Negotiation Commission, as well as its backing for civil society groups opposing the regime—a move that is likely to bring some relief to al-Assad.

In exchange for reducing or suspending this support, Italy plans to focus on backing small and medium-sized enterprises in opposition-controlled areas, in line with a request made by eight European countries, including Italy, to EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell in July 2024, urging a review of the EU’s strategy towards Syria.