How the Gaza War Distanced Europe from the Israeli Occupation

The decision of Spain, Ireland, and Norway to recognize the Palestinian state highlighted the major shift in the policy of some European countries towards “Israel” following the Gaza war that has been ongoing for nearly 8 months.

The decision of the three countries was welcomed by the Palestinian Authority, the European Union, and several Arab countries, while “Israel” rejected it, and the U.S. considered it not serving the two-state solution.

A number of European governments expressed their support for the International Criminal Court (ICC) last week after they requested the issuance of arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Army Minister Yoav Gallant.

According to the New York Times, European countries are facing increasing international and local pressure to take a tougher stance against Israel's dealings with Palestinians, especially the devastating war in Gaza.

Among the EU members, Sweden, which has a large Palestinian community, is the first EU member state in Western Europe to recognize the State of Palestine, specifically in 2014.

Serious Consequences

In a decision that experts and analysts view as a sharp reprimand to Tel Aviv, Norway, Ireland, and Spain have officially recognized Palestinian statehood, despite Israeli warnings against taking such a move.

It is noteworthy that there are expectations that many European countries will join the wave of recognition of the Palestinian state, in a phenomenon that has not been known to the old continent, which is known for its complete and absolute support for “Israel” over many decades.

“Palestinians have a fundamental, independent right to an independent state,” Jonas Gahr Store, the prime minister of Norway, said at a news conference in Oslo announcing the decision.

Spain had been forced to act because Netanyahu did not have a plan for long-term peace with the Palestinians, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said.

Prime Minister Simon Harris of Ireland said at a news conference that he was confident that other countries would soon join them in recognizing Palestinian statehood.

He explained, “There will be no peace in the Middle East without a two-state solution. There can be no two-state solution without a Palestinian state.”

Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, an expert on Israeli-European relations, said the announcements highlighted the erosion of the global support Israel saw immediately after the Hamas-led October 7 attacks that touched off the war in Gaza.

An Israeli reaction was not long in coming, as the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned its ambassadors to Ireland and Norway for consultations, and Minister Yisrael Katz also ordered the immediate return of the Israeli ambassadors to these two countries for consultations.

A Foreign Ministry statement quoted Katz as saying: “Today I am sending a sharp message to Ireland and Norway, stating that Israel will not ignore this matter silently,” claiming that “the two countries’ hasty move will have other serious consequences.”

While Katz described the decision of Norway, Spain, and Ireland as a display of stupidity, he stressed that Israel will not tolerate those who undermine its sovereignty and endanger its security.

Norway, Ireland, Spain, Slovenia, and Malta, member states of the EU, have indicated in recent weeks that they intend to recognize Palestinian statehood, likely in a coordinated recognition, considering that the two-state solution is necessary for lasting peace in the region.

Since November 2023, the Spanish Prime Minister has been leading a diplomatic campaign to persuade Western countries to recognize Palestinian statehood in order to put an end to the conflict in the Middle East, in light of the Israeli war on Gaza.

Palestine is currently recognized by 8 members of the EU, namely Bulgaria, Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, Cyprus, and Sweden.

But many European nations and the U.S. say they will recognize a Palestinian state only as part of a long-term political solution to the conflict in the Middle East.

The U.S. is concerned about Israel’s growing diplomatic isolation among countries that have traditionally supported it, Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said.

“We certainly have seen a growing chorus of voices, including voices that had previously been in support of Israel, drift in another direction,” he said.

The Palestinian presidency said that President Mahmoud Abbas expressed his hope that the recognition of the Palestinian state by Ireland, Spain and Norway would be a prelude to recognition by more European countries.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said he would collaborate relentlessly with all member states for a common EU position based on the two-state solution.

On its part, The Guardian described the three countries' recognition of Palestine as an erosion of U.S. ownership of the peace process between Palestine and Israel, noting that it opens the way towards establishing a statehood.

In the French newspaper Le Monde, an article described the recognition as a new setback for Israel after the United Nations General Assembly demanded that Palestine be granted full membership in the international organization.

The Norwegian website The Local noted that Oslo played a pivotal role in diplomacy in the Middle East over the years, including hosting the talks that led to the Oslo Accords in the early 1990s.

The Spanish newspaper El Monde said that the Israeli reaction to the decision to recognize the Palestinian state was expected, noting that Tel Aviv considers Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Saches to be one of the most hostile European officials to it.

Foreign Policy magazine said that the request of the Prosecutor of the ICC to issue an arrest warrant against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu represents the latest indication that Israel has become an international pariah.

Diminished Support

Many European countries have long supported the two-state solution, which the Israeli government steadfastly opposes, and have expressed frustration with Israel's handling of the Gaza Strip and the occupied West Bank, but most countries have been unwilling to take any position beyond that.

Instead, before the war, the EU was moving closer to Israel, through important financial, political, commercial, and scientific partnerships.

However, the Gaza war and the way it developed caused a change in the position of many European countries towards Israel, leading to great divergence between them.

The sympathy and support that Europe showed towards Israel after the October 7 attacks diminished as the war continued, the humanitarian situation in Gaza deteriorated, tens of thousands of casualties fell, and most Gazans were forced to flee their homes.

The EU has previously imposed sanctions on Israeli settlers and groups of extremist activists, due to violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem.

France affirmed its full support for the ICC, its independence, and the fight against impunity in all circumstances, noting that it has always warned against excessive killings against civilians in Gaza.

The far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich asked Netanyahu for an appropriate Zionist response to the unilateral steps taken by the Palestinian Authority.

He called the Israeli Prime Minister for approval of the immediate convening of the Settlement Planning Council in the West Bank in order to approve 10,000 settlement units in the occupied West Bank.

European Credibility

Despite the above, “Israel” still has strong allies within the EU, especially Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Germany.

When, on May 21, the ICC Prosecutor requested the issuance of arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Army Minister Yoav Gallant, most European countries said they respected the court’s independence although they stopped short of taking a public position on the move.

It is noteworthy that the European division over the ICC’s decision, and threats to prosecute ICC’s judges for issuing an arrest warrant against Israeli leaders puts the entire old continent in moral and political embarrassment before world public opinion.

The credibility of European countries is also at stake, between supporting the ally whose leaders are accused of genocide crimes against civilians, and at the same time supporting the ICC, whose decisions and rulings enjoy the confidence of the capitals and governments of the continent.

However, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala described the prosecutor's request as disgraceful and completely unacceptable, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban described it as ridiculous and shameful.

The development of the German position may predict a change in the direction of the EU's relations with Israel in the future.

Germany is the largest member of the European bloc, and has long expressed a unique commitment to Israel as a result of its Nazi and Holocaust history.

Berlin has declared its strong support for Israel following the attacks launched by Hamas on an Israeli settlement last October.

But it is now more openly critical of the way Israel is conducting the war, and has called for an immediate ceasefire.

Senior Advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Richard Goldberg, explained that if the ICC succeeds in issuing a warrant against Netanyahu and Gallant, American soldiers and political and military leaders may face the same fate for alleged war crimes in Afghanistan and Iraq, and therefore work must be done to prevent this ruling from being issued at all costs.

In turn, political analyst Ismail Maslamani explained in a statement to Al-Estiklal that “the recent European recognitions represent a major achievement for the Palestinians who believe they give international legitimacy to their struggle, especially amid international anger over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.”

“If further European recognition of Palestine occurs, the EU may become a major counterweight to the US position, which believes that achieving a two-state solution must pass through direct negotiations between the Palestinian and Israeli parties, which would deepen the rift between Europe and Israel even more,” he added.