How Could Finland Constitute a Step of Escalation Between Russia and NATO?

Last week, Finland became the latest country to join NATO, ending its long-standing policy of military non-alignment and bringing the alliance closer to Russia’s doorstep.

The Finnish Foreign Minister, Pekka Haavisto, handed over the official accession document to the U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, at NATO headquarters in Brussels, completing a process that began in 2019.

Finland is the 31st member of NATO and the first to join since North Macedonia in 2020. It shares a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia, which has almost doubled NATO’s frontier with its former Cold War adversary.

The move is expected to reshape the security landscape in Europe, especially in the Arctic and the Baltic Sea regions, where Finland and Sweden, another NATO aspirant, could turn into a buffer zone for the alliance.

According to experts quoted by The Washington Post, Finland’s accession could also heighten tensions between the West and Russia, which has repeatedly warned that it would bolster its defenses if NATO expands eastward.

Finland has maintained friendly ties with Russia since World War II when it fought against Soviet invasion and ceded territory under a peace treaty. It joined the European Union in 1995 but stayed out of NATO, citing its tradition of neutrality and public opposition to membership.

However, Finland’s stance changed after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its involvement in conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, which raised concerns about regional stability and security.

A recent poll by the Finnish Broadcasting Company showed that 54 percent of Finns supported joining NATO, while 36 percent opposed. The Finnish government also cited the need to strengthen its defense capabilities and cooperation with other countries as reasons for joining the alliance.

 

Clear Hostility

Finland’s president, Sauli Niinisto, declared that his country had entered a new era in its history, as it officially became a member of NATO, ending decades of military non-alignment.

The president called the move a “first step” in Finland’s progress, while the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, welcomed it as a “historic event” and urged other NATO members to approve Sweden’s bid to join the alliance as well.

But the decision was met with dismay and anger by Russia, which views Finland’s NATO entry as a hostile act and a threat to its security.

Putin had warned in 2016 that if Finland joined NATO, Russia would see it as an enemy.

The move also marks a major shift in the balance of power in Europe and Eurasia, especially in the Arctic and the Baltic Sea regions, where Finland and Sweden could create a buffer zone for NATO.

Some analysts fear that this could spark new clashes between Russia and NATO that could destabilize the region.

Finland’s stance changed after Russia’s actions in Crimea and elsewhere, which raised concerns about regional stability and security.

The Finnish government also cited the need to strengthen its defense capabilities and cooperation with other countries as reasons for joining the alliance.

Finland has a small army relative to the number of soldiers currently in service, but it has about 280,000 military reservists who can be called up at any time, according to War on The Rocks, a military analytics site.

Finland also has one of Europe’s most powerful artillery weapons, with about 1,500 guns and squadrons of modern American F-36s, of which Finland bought 64.

 

Strategic Defense

The decision to join NATO places Finland under the collective defense clause of the alliance, Article V, which stipulates that an attack on one member is an attack on all.

Russia has denounced Finland’s accession as a hostile act and a violation of its security interests. Putin had repeatedly criticized NATO’s eastward expansion, which he partly used as a justification for his intervention in Ukraine in 2014.

Finland’s membership brings NATO closer to where the country maintains its nuclear deterrent force of ballistic missile submarines and stores nuclear warheads.

The peninsula is also home to the Northern Fleet, which is responsible for patrolling the Arctic region.

In addition, Finland and Sweden, which is also joining NATO, will give the alliance an edge in the Baltic Sea, a vital waterway that borders Russia’s second-largest city, St. Petersburg, as well as some of NATO’s most vulnerable members, such as Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

Finland also contributes a robust military force to NATO, with a wartime strength of 280,000 troops and one of the largest artillery arsenals in Europe.

The country has some of the same weapons systems as other NATO members, such as U.S.-made F-18 fighter jets, German-designed Leopard main battle tanks, and K9 howitzers used by Norway, Estonia, and others, according to CNN.

NATO membership will also enhance Finland’s interoperability with its allies, as the country will participate more fully in training and planning exercises.

Finland is not new to working with NATO, having been a partner of the alliance since 1994 and regularly taking part in NATO-led missions and operations.

A recent report by the Wilson Center, a Washington-based think tank, highlighted three areas where Finland stands out: its large and well-equipped artillery force, its access to advanced technology such as the F-35 stealth fighter, and its massive pool of reservists.

According to the report, Finland has “the largest and best equipped” artillery force in Western Europe, with about 1,500 artillery weapons, including howitzers, heavy mortars, and rocket launcher systems.

This gives Finland more firepower than the combined armies of Poland, Germany, Norway, and Sweden.

Finland also participates in the F-35 program, which will allow its air force to work seamlessly with NATO members such as the United States, United Kingdom, Norway, Italy, Canada, Poland, Denmark, and the Netherlands. The F-35 is a fifth-generation fighter jet that can evade radar and perform multiple missions.

Another advantage for Finland is its strong record in cybersecurity, which is partly due to its homegrown tech industry. The report noted that Finland is home to Nokia, one of the three major 5G infrastructure providers in the world, along with Sweden’s Ericsson and China’s Huawei.

Finland’s military readiness is also boosted by its large pool of reservists, who have been trained as conscripts.

The report said that Finland could mobilize 900,000 reservists in case of war. The size of the Finnish wartime forces is 280,000.