How Abortion Issue Pose a Dilemma for Donald Trump’s Campaign

Amid preparations for the upcoming US presidential elections, the abortion issue is once again a big challenge for the campaign of former US President Donald Trump, who is trying to maintain the support of his conservative base, but is facing increasing pressure from voters who are demanding that he take a clear and decisive position on this sensitive issue for American society.

Abortion rights will be a major focus in the upcoming debate on September 10 between Trump and his Democratic rival Kamala Harris, who continues to denounce the inconsistency of her Republican rival's positions.

In recent months, Trump has suggested that there is a growing consensus among Republicans around a federal ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, rather than six weeks, while avoiding explicitly endorsing it.

But he has repeatedly boasted that he is responsible for ending the right to abortion at the federal level, through his appointment of three conservative justices to the Supreme Court.

Political Fluctuation

Donald Trump chose Florida as his primary state a few years ago, but he did not expect that the move would bring him into a complicated political dilemma last week, specifically when he was asked about the state’s upcoming abortion referendum, which would allow abortion to return to its previous status before 2022.

Initially, Trump expressed support for a proposed amendment that would overturn Florida’s six-week abortion ban.

However, this position angered his conservative base, forcing him to backtrack and confirm in later remarks his opposition to the proposed amendment, which the state’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, had signed and was referred to a referendum in the state elections on November 5.

The confusion caused by the conflicting remarks and his change of position on Florida’s abortion ban sparked angry reactions from leaders of the anti-abortion movement, which plays a crucial role in shaping conservative politics in the United States.

National Review described Trump’s remarks as a complete abandonment of pro-life advocates.

Jeremy Boreing, co-founder of The Daily Wire, said the move was Trump's worst remark since the start of his first presidential campaign in 2015, and showed he was inconsistent.

Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida, said Trump finds himself in a difficult position, trying to please everyone but risking losing support from one side.

Right-wing commentator Matt Walsh described Trump’s potential support for the amendment as political suicide, while others, such as conservative radio host Erick Erickson, have criticized Trump’s reversal of his original position, warning that this hesitation could cost him the election.

Jessica Mackler, president of the abortion rights political action committee EMILY’s List, said “Trump’s recent comments on abortion show he’s scared.”

As the election approaches, Trump must carefully navigate the implications of this issue.

Michael Binder, director of the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab, noted that anti-abortion voters could have a significant impact on the outcome of the election.

As the backlash mounted, especially from his hardline base, the Trump campaign quickly issued a statement saying that “Trump has not yet said how he will vote on the ballot initiative in Florida, he simply reiterated that he believes six weeks is too short.”

The statement underscored the challenge for Trump and his willingness to make many of the rhetorical and political shifts he sees as necessary to win the November 5 election, which has angered some conservatives.

Recently, Trump has tried to bolster his electoral base by defending family values, when he was the guest of honor in Washington at the annual gathering of Moms for Liberty, a powerful conservative group founded in 2021 that campaigns primarily for parental rights and opposes talk of gender identity or sexual orientation in schools.

During the gathering, held on August 30, the former Republican president did not mention abortion at all.

In the face of repeated criticism from Democrats, and with the majority of public support for abortion, Trump has recently been keen to present himself as a defender of reproductive rights.

On August 29, Trump confirmed that he would support federal IVF treatments so that Americans can have more children, a highly sensitive and political issue in the run-up to the November 5 presidential election.

Lila Rose, a prominent anti-abortion activist, has argued Trump’s positions on reproductive rights run counter to how he was governed during his first term.

Last week, Trump angered anti-abortion activists when he posted on his Truth Social platform, saying, “My administration would be great for women and their reproductive rights.” 

He also indicated that he would not restrict access to abortion prescriptions.

Major Obstacle

Former Republican President Donald Trump still faces a major challenge in how to address abortion rights during his campaign.

As he tries to reconcile the demands of his conservative base with appealing to moderate voters, the issue remains a major obstacle that could affect the course of the upcoming election.

Trump also recently claimed that Democrats in the United States support allowing abortion at any time during pregnancy, accusing his rival Kamala Harris and Democrats as a whole of wanting to execute babies.

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris quickly responded to Donald Trump’s remark that he would support continuing Florida’s abortion ban as evidence of his continued anti-abortion position.

“Donald Trump made his position clear when he hand-picked three Supreme Court justices to overturn Roe—which has decimated reproductive freedom and jeopardized IVF access for American women,” she said.

Under the Biden administration, Harris has been at the forefront of efforts on reproductive rights and abortion issues.

In April 2023, she visited Florida just hours after the controversial ban went into effect, warning that another Trump term would mean more restrictions, more suffering, and a decline in freedom.

In a recent remark, she reiterated that position, pledging to restore reproductive rights if elected president.

A growing percentage of voters in seven battleground states, especially women, now say abortion has become increasingly important in deciding whom to support in November, according to New York Times/Siena College polls conducted earlier in August.

That’s an increase since May, when President Joe Biden was still the Democratic nominee.

By a wide margin, more people say they trust Harris more than Trump to handle abortion.

Trump’s position on abortion has fluctuated over the decades.

The New York Times reported that in a 1999 TV interview with NBC News, Trump, then 53, said he was very pro-choice.

In 2011, without explaining the change, he told a crowd at a conservative conference that he was pro-life, meaning he opposed abortion.

When he first ran for president in 2016, he told MSNBC that he had become so anti-abortion that he supported sanctions on women who had the procedure. He did not realize that his position was too hardline even for the social conservatives he was seeking to win support.

Trump also supported federal legislation in 2018 to ban abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy, although the measure did not gain enough support in the Senate.

However, after the 2022 midterm elections, Trump blames Republicans who hold a hardline anti-abortion stance for the party’s failure to secure a larger majority in the House of Representatives.

Led by Trump, Republicans in competitive races are rushing to frame abortion as a states’ rights matter, hoping to convince voters that the issue is not truly on the ballot this year.

This is a stark departure from the message many in the Republican Party have pushed for decades: that abortion is murder and should be widely banned.

In April 2024, Trump reiterated that he believes abortion regulation should be left to individual states.