Hezbollah's Decline and Joseph Aoun's Presidency: What’s Left of Iran’s Influence in Lebanon?

The election of Lebanese army commander Joseph Aoun as president marked a significant test of Hezbollah’s diminishing political influence, both domestically and regionally, as its leverage has waned.

Despite its alignment with Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” Hezbollah failed to secure the presidency for its preferred candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, leader of the Marada Movement.

Frangieh withdrew his candidacy on the eve of the Lebanese parliament’s presidential election session on January 9, 2025, ending more than two years of vacancy in the role.

Electing a President 

Joseph Aoun, 61, secured the presidency in the second round of voting, garnering 99 votes out of 128 members of parliament, all of whom attended the session.

According to a source close to Hezbollah and Amal Movement lawmakers, known as the “Shiite duo,” their members cast blank ballots during the first round, as reported by Agence France-Presse (AFP).

The session was adjourned for two hours after the first round, during which representatives of Hezbollah and Amal met with Aoun in parliament. In the second round, Aoun secured the majority by gaining the support of 30 lawmakers from the two parties, ensuring the parliamentary majority required for victory.

Following the vote, Hezbollah lawmaker Mohammed Raad said that by delaying their vote for Aoun, the group had “sent a message that we are the guardians of national consensus.”

Joseph Aoun’s ascent to the presidency and his arrival at Beirut’s Baabda Palace signal Hezbollah's internal decline. The party has been left battered following the Gaza conflict, which claimed the lives of key leaders, including its former chief, Hassan Nasrallah, who was assassinated by “Israel” in Beirut on September 27, 2024.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024—after a ten-day military campaign by Syrian opposition forces—cut off Iran's military supply line to Hezbollah, further diminishing its strength.

These rapid regional shifts have dealt a significant blow to Hezbollah, an organization founded by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in 1982 and heavily reliant on Iranian financial and military support.

Experts suggest Hezbollah’s political influence in Lebanon has eroded beyond its ability to secure a “resistance-friendly” president, a strategy championed by Nasrallah until his assassination. Under Joseph Aoun’s leadership, the country is poised for transformative policies during his five-year term.

In his inaugural speech, Aoun declared the start of “a new phase in the history of Lebanon,” emphasizing the state's exclusive right to bear arms—a direct challenge to Hezbollah’s dominance.

Aoun also outlined plans to strengthen Lebanon's military, pledging to secure borders, combat smuggling, fight terrorism, enforce international resolutions, uphold the armistice agreement with Israel, and prevent Israeli violations of Lebanese territory.

“My commitment is to carry out my duties as the supreme commander of the armed forces and as the chairman of the Higher Defense Council, working to ensure the state's right to hold a monopoly on weapons, and to invest in the army to monitor the borders, maintain their security in the south, define the boundaries in the east, north and at sea, prevent smuggling, fight terrorism and preserve the unity of the Lebanese territory,” he said.

“My commitment is to ask for an integrated defense policy to be debated, as part of a national security strategy on the diplomatic, economic and military levels, to enable the Lebanese state, I repeat, the Lebanese state, to eradicate the Israeli occupation and repel its aggressions on all Lebanese territories.”

Strategic Loss

Since the end of Michel Aoun’s presidential term in October 2022, Hezbollah staunchly opposed Joseph Aoun’s candidacy, insisting on Suleiman Frangieh as its preferred choice.

In response, Lebanon’s newly elected president, Joseph Aoun, delivered a speech that carried clear messages to Hezbollah, emphasizing the state’s exclusive right to arms—a direct challenge to Hezbollah’s position as the sole armed non-state actor under the pretext of resisting “Israel.”

Hezbollah lawmakers showed visible discomfort during Aoun’s speech in parliament, particularly at his references to disarming non-state groups. Their reluctance was underscored by their refusal to applaud after Speaker Nabih Berri announced Aoun’s victory.

The president-elect vowed to pursue a policy of positive neutrality, distancing Lebanon from regional alignments while fostering stronger ties with Arab countries.

Lebanese political analyst Assaad Bechara told Al-Estiklal that Aoun’s election represents “a clear setback for the Axis of Resistance in Lebanon and a strategic loss for its influence.”

“Aoun’s victory came despite resistance from the bloc, which sought to obstruct his candidacy until the last moment. In the end, the Shiite duo [Hezbollah and Amal] voted in the second round, attempting to create the impression that his election hinged on their support.”

“This marks a shift in Lebanon’s balance of power. The Axis of Resistance has lost its grip and no longer wields the influence to dominate the country’s decision-making as it once did,” said Bechara.

This transition signals the start of a new era in Lebanon, one backed by Arab and international support and rooted in domestic forces capable of reshaping the country’s political landscape. For Bechara, Aoun’s presidency could move Lebanon from an era of corruption and external influence to one of genuine state-building and governance.

Joseph Aoun’s election, Bechara continued, solidifies Lebanese sovereignty by limiting arms to state control and affirming the government’s sole authority over security and borders.

Hezbollah’s reliance on Iranian support was openly acknowledged by its late leader Hassan Nasrallah, who declared in 2016, “The party’s budget, salaries, expenses, food, drink, weapons, and missiles come from the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Hezbollah’s armed takeover of Beirut on May 7, 2008, triggered a profound divide with other Lebanese factions. Despite this, Hezbollah and Amal solidified their political grip, transforming Lebanon into a stronger extension of Iranian influence. With an estimated 100,000 fighters, Hezbollah overshadowed Lebanon’s national army, which has a similar troop size—a power imbalance that has long drawn criticism from both Arab and Western nations.

Sources cited by Lebanon’s Nida al-Watan attribute Aoun’s election to overwhelming Arab and international consensus, which left Hezbollah unable to oppose his candidacy. The sources highlighted that U.S.-Saudi coordination played a decisive role in securing Aoun’s presidency, reflecting broader regional shifts and the significant decline of the “Axis of Resistance.”

Victory of the Syrian Revolution

During its conflict with “Israel” since October 8, 2023, Hezbollah suffered a significant political blow when Christian leader Gebran Bassil, head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), ended a two-decade-long alliance with the group.

On October 22, 2024, Bassil publicly criticized Hezbollah’s decision to engage in a “unified fronts” strategy by opening the Lebanese front to support Gaza. He called it a “strategic error,” stating, “This serves no Lebanese interest; there may be interests for other nations in the axis, but not for Lebanon,” in a clear reference to Iran.

This shift stripped Hezbollah of its Christian political cover, with analysts predicting that the FPM’s reassessment of the alliance would deepen Hezbollah’s isolation in Lebanon.

Despite this split, Hezbollah's support played a crucial role in 2016 when Michel Aoun, Bassil's predecessor, was elected president. At that time, Hezbollah stalled parliament for over two years, blocking any attempts to elect a successor to Michel Suleiman, whose term had ended in May 2014.

Lebanese MP Waddah Sadek said since 2011, the FPM, Hezbollah, and Amal Movement formed a tripartite bloc that dominated Lebanon’s political scene. Speaking on television, Sadek stated that the election of Joseph Aoun as president marks the end of a “dark chapter” in Lebanon’s history. He accused the bloc of driving the country into financial and economic collapse, depleting depositors' funds, fostering institutional corruption, and leading to a destructive war.

“Israel’s strike against Hezbollah inflicted significant damage, weakening their support base.” 

He further argued that Syria’s border closures and the triumph of the Syrian revolution left Hezbollah vulnerable, hindering its ability to obstruct Lebanon’s presidential elections.

For the first time since the end of Lebanon’s civil war in 1990, a president was elected without prior approval from Iran or the Assad regime in Syria.

Lina Khatib, of Britain's Chatham House think tank, said it was “the first time since the end of the Lebanese civil war [in 1990] that a Lebanese president is elected without prior approval by Iran and by the ousted Syrian regime.”

“Hezbollah's acceptance of Aoun's election underlines that it no longer dictates the political agenda,” she told AFP.

“The significant shift in the political status quo [..] is the direct result of the larger geopolitical changes in the Middle East in which Iran's influence in the region is ending.”