Here Are the Basic Reason behind the Islamists Tragic Fall in Moroccan Elections [Source: Al-Estiklal Arabic]

With the Dove slogan, the National Rally of Independents party won, and rise high according the results of the parliamentary elections in Morocco, by obtaining 97 seats, compared to a significant decline for the leader of the government coalition, the Justice and Development Party (Islamist), by losing more than 90 percent of its seats and obtaining only 12, after counting 96 percent. of votes, according to the Ministry of the Interior.

According to a number of indicators that began to appear before the start of the election campaign, it was expected that the Islamic Party, which had led the government coalition for two consecutive terms since the change of the constitution in 2011, would decline, but no one expected this "tragic fall" of the party.

Al-Ahrar’s leadership of the elections was not only a defeat for Justice and Development, but also a failure for the Authenticity and Modernity Party (Al-Jarrar), which was established in order to confront the Islamists, in addition to being the main force in the country’s political scene, and received strong support from influential parties within the state.

Power Party

The Authenticity and Modernity Party came in second place with 82 seats, the Socialist Union Party with 35, the Popular Movement Party with 26, and the Progress and Socialism Party with 20.

The Ministry of Interior said that the voter turnout amounted to 50.35 percent, while the turnout in some southern regions exceeded 66 percent, a slight increase from the 43 percent recorded in the 2016 elections.

The Authenticity and Modernity Party (liberal), which was founded in 2008, is described as "close to the authority", and it is constantly referred to as coming to confront the Islamists, which appeared through a long course of statements and actions.

The party came in second place in the 2016 legislative elections, after the Justice and Development Party, as it won 102 seats out of the 395 seats in the House of Representatives (the first chamber of parliament).

The sudden rise of the last Wafd party on the Moroccan political scene made it a focus of attention, as well as the association of its founding with the politician "Fouad Ali El Himma", the King's advisor, and the controversial statesman Elias Al-Amari, who served as the party's Secretary-General.

“We have come to fight the Islamists since the founding days.” An explicit statement from the former Secretary-General of Authenticity and Modernity Elias Al-Ammari, which seems to some that he is direct to the point of shocking, but it was not the first, as the founder of the party “Al-Himma” preceded him in his first interview with Channel Two. After the 2007 elections, when he said: "Islamists are the margins of society."

Immediately after El-Himma's statements, at that time the prominent leader of the "Justice and Development", and the head of his National Council (the party's parliament), Abdelilah Benkirane, took it upon himself to respond to the "friend of the King" Mohammed VI with strong statements, leading the brigade against the El-Himma project and those who gathered around it.

This step prompted the party's supporters to choose Benkirane as its secretary general in 2008, considering him the most capable among their party's leaders to thwart El Himma's plans.

Benkirane was the "bulwark" of his party and the target of the attack on a campaign aimed at extinguishing the "lamp" (Justice and Development), where he called in unprecedented statements, the king to remove El Himma, Ammari and (Private Secretary of the King) Mounir Majidi from the political scene "out of respect for democracy and the preservation of the monarchy." .

The goal that was set for Jarrar - in the era of Al-Ammari -, with his appearance on the political scene, is to prevent any sweep of justice and development, but this goal was negated after his failure to do so, which led to the deportation of Al-Ammari, who voluntarily chose self-exile in Spain.

 

Punitive Vote

On March 28, 2018, Aziz Akhannouch, the Moroccan Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries and the Secretary General of the National Rally of Independents, denied that his party “came to confront (the leader of the government coalition) the Islamic Justice and Development Party.”

The party's Secretary-General who is participating in the government coalition, said in an interview with the Moroccan Channel Two : "We did not come to break anyone, and our party has an accumulation, political history and competencies, and we will only play the role that suits our competence."

However, the weeks leading up to the elections show - according to observers - that the party actually came to play the role of "Authenticity and Modernity (right / opposition) in an attempt to remove the Islamists who led the government for the first time in Morocco for two consecutive terms (2012-2021)."

The founding of the Tagammu Party dates back to about 42 years ago, and its star's recent rise comes after the failure of the "Authenticity and Modernity Party" to overthrow the "Justice and Development" during the 2016 parliamentary elections, and the "pigeon" is betting on the leadership of the next government, with the support of businessmen.

The "National Rally of Independents" was founded in October 1978 by Ahmed Osman, the former prime minister (1972-1979) and son-in-law of the late King Hassan II (1961-1999). “Because most of its cadres are notables, businessmen or administrative cadres.

In the legislative elections that were held in Morocco in 2016, "Justice and Development" came first (125 seats in Parliament out of 395), while "Authenticity and Modernity" came second (102 seats), and "Al-Istiqlal" (opposition) third (46 seats). The National Rally of Independents came fourth (37 seats).

Interesting for political science professor Mohamed Choucair. It is not for the PJD to suffer an electoral defeat, but rather for the exciting thing to be rolled from 125 seats in 2016 to 12 seats in 2021.

In an interview with Al-Estiklal, he considered that the matter was not related to an electoral defeat, but rather a "political" issue, and that no party had ever been in the lead and rolled in this way, especially since it is one of the major parties and is expected to share the first ranks with the rest of the parties.

Choucair saw that the high turnout (sources indicated that it is the highest in Morocco in 20 years) indicates that voting for other parties was punitive, considering that the defeat was also associated with its Secretary-General, not only the party, and this has to do with the symbolism of the party.

The funds' reaction was not only due to poor performance and political exhaustion, but was also a "punitive behavior" for the emergence of a party with a religious reference and discourse, "to turn into a party of those who cling to chairs."

 

Regional Factor

The city of Agadir, the largest city in southern Morocco, was a station for a political and electoral battle between the National Rally for Independents, Justice and Development parties, as the region was a stronghold for both on the social and ethnic level for most of the leaders of the two parties.

At the beginning of June 2021, Akhannouch decided his candidacy for the top of his party's list in the local elections in the municipality of Agadir, after he was hesitant between taking part in the legislative elections in the Tiznit region (near Agadir), or running for the top of the city's dirt group list, although the party leadership could likely let him be elected at the parliamentary level in order to enhance his party's chances of winning the prime ministership.

This indicator posed a major challenge for both parties in attracting voters who trust candidates for local and legislative elections.

The sharp rivalry increased, as most of the important political leaders of the two parties belong to the Souss-Massa region, headed by the two general secretaries, Akhannouch and Saad Eddine El Othmani, who belong to the town of Tafraout and the city of Inezgane (center).

Akhannouch's affiliation with the "Souss" region - Agadir is one of its cities - and his strong presence in it helped the party to win first place, according to political science professor Mohamed Choucair, as well as his position for years as Minister of Agriculture, given that the field included multiple categories of Moroccans due to the agricultural nature of the country.

Choucair attributed one of the reasons for the victory to Akhannouch's association in the minds of Moroccans as a "friend of the king" after Mohammed VI appeared on more than one occasion as a guest at the politician's house.

Choucair said that the National Rally of Independents was rooted in the political scene, and is not a product of recent years (in reference to Jarrar).

The premature election campaign launched by the party in 2020; Such as the "100 Days 100 Cities" initiative, through which he visited various regions of the country, was also one of the reasons.

Also, relying on social networking sites and promoting the party by funding its campaign on it strongly, were all reasons for the lead, according to the spokesman.

 

"Tragic Fall"

The failure of "Authenticity and Modernity" to achieve what the National Rally of Independents has achieved is controlled by a number of contexts, according to Abdul Rahman Manzur, a professor of political science interested in Islamic groups.

The first is political; where PAM was branded as the "control party" by the powerful politician Abdelilah Benkirane, in addition to the regional context of the Arab Spring.

Manzoor said in an interview with Al-Estiklal: The contexts are different now, as the Liberal Party does not depend on ideology or fight the Islamists as much as the originality; Rather, it depends on technocrats, notables, the power of media marketing, and electoral polarization through money through the businessmen who belong to it.

In the current elections, the AKP did not face an opponent that is easy to brand ideologically, but rather an opponent linked to the network of money and interests, according to the spokesman.

He considered that the Islamic party faced 3 parties (Al-Ahrar, Authenticity and Modernity, and Al-Istiqlal), all of which depended on notables and their financial strength and relations.

At the level of the political context, Manzoor says, the Justice and Development Party is experiencing weakness in terms of internal readiness and its rhetorical strength, which was based on the first man in it (Ben Kiran).

He added, "The party experienced difficult stages during its last term, represented in the legalization of cannabis cultivation, the French education and the normalization agreement, all of which are internal and external factors that led to its expected downfall, but not in this tragic way."

He added: "Justice and Development was superior to its competitors in terms of political discourse, but it lost its popular base because the middle class was damaged by passing a number of social projects and also signing the normalization agreement."

According to a perspective, Al-Othmani’s speech can be described as technocratic, which prompted a large number to vote on those who have financial influence, and money was used extensively in these elections (vote buying) with observation, whether from parties or observers, and the vote was based on clientelistic relations between the voter and the candidate, not Politically, as in the previous two experiences.

The speaker concluded that the AKP faced a current of financial, not ideological, influence, in addition to its internal weakness and social crisis.