Grain for Loyalty: How Does Putin’s New Policy in Africa Work?

In a move that could reshape the geopolitics of food aid, Russia announced that it had reached a preliminary agreement with Turkiye and Qatar to deliver one million metric tons of grain to African countries in need, at a subsidized price and with financial backing from the Gulf state.

The deal, which was disclosed by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko at a press conference in Moscow, would entrust Turkiye with the responsibility of transporting the Russian wheat to various destinations across the African continent, while Qatar would provide the funds to cover the costs and ensure the delivery of the food aid for free.

“We expect to enter into practical contacts with all parties in the near future to finalize all the technical aspects of the delivery operations program,” Grushko said, adding that “all agreements have been reached in principle.”

Majed al-Ansari, the official spokesman for the Qatari Foreign Ministry, confirmed the plan and said: “We are about to conclude an agreement to supply Africa with food for free, and supplies will start within two or three weeks, not two or three months.”

 

Surprise Announcement

The announcement came as a surprise, as it followed Moscow’s withdrawal from a previous grain export agreement with Ukraine, known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which was signed in July 2020 at a ceremony in Istanbul attended by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

The agreement, which was hailed as a gesture of goodwill by Moscow at the time, allowed Ukraine to ship grain from its ports on the Black Sea to countries around the world after the devastating consequences of the Russian–Ukrainian war that left about 37 million people in a state of “severe hunger,” according to the World Food Program.

However, after only one year, Moscow reneged on the agreement and refused to renew it, citing Ukraine’s failure to fulfill its obligations.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on July 17, 2020, that the grain corridor agreement has already ended and has been stopped, adding that Russia will immediately return to the agreement as soon as its conditions are implemented, since the part related to Russia in the agreement has not been fulfilled.

The decision sparked outrage and criticism from the international community, as it threatened to worsen the global food security crisis, especially in countries that rely heavily on Russian–Ukrainian grain, which accounts for about a third of global grain production.

The situation was further aggravated by the harsh climate changes that also cast their dark shadows on the world’s food map.

Moscow and Putin’s government faced harsh criticism, but they tried to deflect the blame to the West and accused it of sabotaging the agreement and putting obstacles in its way.

In contrast, they portrayed Moscow as an angel who was committed to the agreement and its continuation.

In his meeting with African leaders who participated in the African–Russian summit held in St. Petersburg on July 27 and 28, 2023, Putin said that the West was primarily responsible for not extending the agreement.

By targeting African countries with grain at a time when Russia refused to extend the export agreement with Ukraine despite international pressure and humanitarian appeals, Moscow opened the door to various interpretations of its motives and faced direct accusations of trying to blackmail African countries with a political equation: wheat for loyalty.

 

Buying Loyalty

Putin named six poor African countries — Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Central African Republic, and Eritrea — that would receive Russian wheat for free. He allocated between 25,000 and 50,000 tons of grain for each country over the next four months.

Political researcher Nasr al-Sayed said that Putin’s gesture was seen by some experts as an attempt to change the rules of the food game in Africa, where many countries depend on imports of grain, mainly from Ukraine and other Western suppliers.

In his interview with Al-Estiklal, al-Sayed said that by offering Russian wheat as a more readily available and affordable alternative, “Putin hoped to win the hearts and minds of African people and governments and to gain an edge over his Western adversaries.”

Russia is already the world’s largest wheat exporter, having shipped 60 million tons of grain last year. Its production has soared in recent years thanks to favorable weather conditions and improved farming techniques.

But Russia’s ambitions in Africa go beyond feeding the hungry. The continent, which is rich in mineral and natural resources that are crucial for the future economy, has become a battleground for major powers seeking to secure their interests and influence.

“Russia has been trying to catch up with China and the United States, which have invested heavily in Africa and have established military bases there. It has also been competing with its former colonial rivals, such as France, which have faced popular resentment and violence in some of their former African territories,” al-Sayed noted.

To advance its agenda in Africa, Russia used diverse tools, including arms sales, military training, nuclear energy deals, and political meddling.

“But grain aid may be one of its most effective weapons, as it appeals to the basic needs and emotions of millions of Africans who are struggling to survive,” according to al-Sayed.

“Russia is playing on the string of their suffering. By bombing Ukrainian wheat silos and offering grains at reduced prices or for free, Russia is practicing the most heinous types of blackmail against the poor,” he concluded.

 

Tarnishing the West

Some analysts argued that Moscow’s strategy in Africa was to tarnish the image of the West, especially the United States and Europe, while enhancing its own reputation among the African people.

This is evident in Putin’s speech at the St. Petersburg summit, in which he claimed that the major powers did not care about the poor and destitute in the world and that Russia would be a more beneficial partner for Africa.

The strategy, which involves offering food and military aid in exchange for political loyalty, seems to have paid off in some parts of the continent, especially in the Sahel and West regions, where recent coups in Niger and Gabon have been met with pro-Moscow statements and anti-Western rhetoric.

Russia has also sought to expand its influence in Africa by exploiting the opportunities created by the instability and conflicts in the region, as well as by creating new battlefields to divert attention from its involvement in Ukraine.

This approach has not been very successful so far, but there are signs that Russia is making some progress.

However, the equation of food for loyalty may not be sustainable in the long run, as it faces many challenges and risks.

It could backfire, as it did for France and other former colonial powers, who lost their influence and credibility in Africa after decades of exploitation and neglect.

It could also be costly and demanding, as Russia may not be able to afford the sacrifices required to maintain its presence and interests in Africa amid its open confrontations on multiple fronts.