How Germany Links Support for Post-War Syria to Refugee Conditions

Exploiting Syria’s dire humanitarian situation, some factions within the German government are pushing to tie refugee return conditions to any aid for Damascus.

Germany hosts the largest Syrian community in Europe, having taken in a million refugees after the 2011 uprising. It was also among the first Western nations to establish contact with Syria’s new leadership following the fall of Bashar al-Assad on December 8, 2024.

Preconditions

As Germany’s parliamentary budget committee moves to pave the way for partnerships aimed at helping Syria recover and rebuild, several German ministries have outlined their stance on future engagement with Damascus.

Justice Minister Marion Gentges has stated that aid for Syria’s reconstruction should be tied to cooperation from the new authorities in facilitating the return of Syrian refugees.

On January 30, 2025, Gentges noted that repatriation efforts require a certain level of stability but warned against setting excessively high standards. She also stressed the need to assess whether Syria still poses significant risks, asserting that “the main reasons for fleeing no longer exist.”

Following the fall of the Assad regime, Germany has been debating the fate of nearly 975,000 Syrians in the country, most of whom arrived in 2015, escaping security crackdowns, indiscriminate bombings, and arbitrary arrests.

Currently, over 300,000 Syrian refugees in Germany hold subsidiary protection status, granted not due to individual persecution but because of the ongoing conflict in their homeland.

On January 29, 2025, Syria’s new military leadership, which toppled Assad, appointed Ahmed al-Sharaa as interim head of state. The 43-year-old leader will oversee the transitional phase and represent Syria on the international stage.

Ahead of this key appointment, Berlin signaled openness toward Syria’s new leadership. In early January 2025, Germany’s Federal Minister of Foreign Affairs Annalena Baerbock, accompanied by her French counterpart, visited Damascus and met with al-Sharaa.

Later that month, German Minister of Economic Cooperation and Development Svenja Schulze traveled to Syria, calling the transition a “historic opportunity” for a fresh start.

“After more than 50 years of dictatorship and 14 years of civil war, Syria now has the chance for peaceful and stable development,” Schulze said as she arrived.

“It would be wrong of us not to use this historic window of opportunity to support Syria in embarking on a peaceful new beginning.”

“Germany can do a lot to support the new beginning for [..] Syrian society,” the minister added.

During her visit, Schulze met with aid organizations and civil society representatives to explore how Germany could contribute to fostering a peaceful and inclusive society.

Schulze also announced the expansion of Germany’s international hospital partnership program to include Syrian healthcare facilities. This initiative is part of broader recovery efforts and aims to retain Syrian medical professionals in Germany.

A German study published in late 2024 warned that the country could face labor shortages if Syrians were to return home, particularly in the healthcare sector.

As part of the expanded program, German doctors may travel to Syria to conduct medical training sessions, while Syrian doctors could receive training in Germany.

Currently, 5,800 Syrian doctors are practicing in Germany. Schulze acknowledged that while Syria’s new leaders are eager to repatriate skilled professionals, Germany also has a vested interest in retaining them, given their crucial role in the country’s healthcare system.

‘Just Discussions’

Germany appears to be carefully weighing its approach to avoid labor shortages, particularly among skilled Syrian refugees.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz affirmed that “integrated” Syrian refugees are welcome in Germany. 

“Those who work here and are well integrated remain welcome in Germany. That’s obvious,” the social-democrat leader says in a post on X, noting that “some declarations these past days have deeply destabilized our fellow citizens of Syrian origin.”

Scholz’s statement was a direct response to calls from far-right conservatives demanding the return of Syrian refugees following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Alice Weidel, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party’s candidate for chancellor, posted on X, “We will accept no one from now on.” Meanwhile, discussions within the German government about tying aid to Syria with refugee repatriation remain ongoing.

Justice Minister Marion Gentges told the German Press Agency (DPA) that any support for Syria’s reconstruction should come with “guidelines for the new rulers.”

“Some services should be contingent on cooperation from the Syrian government and on creating conditions that make return possible,” she added.

Syrian economic analyst Younes al-Kareem explained that Gentges’ comments reflect her perspective as a government member advocating humanitarian aid in exchange for Syria’s acceptance of deportees with criminal convictions.

“Gentges, from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is pushing a partisan agenda aimed at tightening asylum policies in Germany. However, this does not necessarily mean Berlin will impose broader refugee-related conditions for aid to Syria, which is facing severe economic hardship,” he told Al-Estiklal.

Despite far-right backing, the CDU and its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union (CSU), failed to pass stricter immigration laws in late December 2024. The controversial bill was rejected by German lawmakers, prompting applause from the ruling Social Democratic Party and the Greens, both of whom opposed the measure.

The CDU/CSU proposal, known as the “Influx Reduction Law,” sought to impose restrictions on family reunification for rejected asylum seekers and introduce new deportation measures.

Not Easy

Younes al-Kareem emphasized that “Germany has invested significantly in Syrian refugees, and their return to Syria will not be taken lightly.”

“The European Union prioritizes spending activity among those residing in its territory, as financial transactions drive refugees to work and seek funding sources,” 

Germany's statement comes at a time when Syria is facing increasing national challenges, requiring coordination and resources that local efforts alone cannot provide.

In response, Germany allocated €60 million to various projects in Syria to improve humanitarian conditions. The funds will be channeled through the UN and civil society organizations.

Four days after Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock pledged an additional €8 million ($8.4 million) in humanitarian aid for Syria. She also announced plans to increase Germany’s presence in the country, appointing State Minister Tobias Lindner as its representative.

Presenting an eight-point action plan, Baerbock described the moment as “a glimpse of hope,” though she cautioned that the situation remains “far from stable.” She stressed that the return of Syrian refugees must be coordinated with European partners and the UN.

Humanitarian needs in Syria have reached record levels following Assad’s downfall and the limited return of displaced people to devastated cities and towns. In 2024, an estimated 16.7 million Syrians required assistance, with foreign aid—particularly from the United States—playing a crucial role.

Nevertheless, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs recently reported a severe and persistent funding shortfall, with only 34.5% of the $4.1 billion required for Syria’s humanitarian response met as of early 2025.

After Assad’s fall, the Biden administration granted a six-month sanctions waiver through the U.S. Treasury Department to facilitate public services and humanitarian aid in Syria. The waiver was applied to transactions with the Syrian government, and personal remittances were processed via the country’s central bank.

This move aimed to enable critical assistance and development efforts across sectors such as energy, agriculture, technology, and healthcare.

Meanwhile, other countries, along with the European Union, are pursuing a “step-by-step” approach to lifting sanctions on Syria, using them as leverage to ensure the new government meets key benchmarks for a successful and sustainable political transition.

Over the past decade, Syria’s private sector—backed by local communities—has sustained livelihoods and provided essential services in the absence of government support.

Experts argue that to promote stability and rebuild Syria’s economy, the international community must ease sanctions on vital financial institutions, including the central bank, facilitate foreign investment, and empower private enterprises.

Without such measures, economic pressures on Syrians will intensify, jeopardizing the fragile progress achieved so far.