Escalating Conflict Between Sall and Sonko: Where is Senegal's Political Situation Headed?

In a new development in Senegal, the Ministry of Interior announced the killing of two individuals during protests that erupted in the southern part of the country in protest against the arrest of prominent opposition figure Ousmane Sonko, one of the most influential politicians in the country.

On July 31, 2023, the ministry said in a statement that two bodies were found in Ziguinchor, the city where Sonko (49 years old) serves as its mayor.

These protests come after the Senegalese authorities arrested Sonko on July 30, following his altercation with security forces stationed outside his house, alleging that they photographed him without permission.

The Senegalese Public Prosecutor’s Office charged the opposition figure Sonko with “incitement to rebellion, conspiracy against the state, and criminal conspiracy based on statements he made and gatherings he participated in since 2021.”

These charges come two months after his trial on a separate rape case, which sparked deadly protests across the country, resulting in around 16 deaths.

On June 1, 2023, a local court convicted Sonko, a presidential candidate in the upcoming elections scheduled for February 2024, to a two-year prison sentence for “corrupting youth,” unrelated to the rape crimes he was previously convicted of.

 

Retaliatory Measures

The Senegalese authorities did not stop at arresting the opposition figure Sonko and pressing charges against him. They also announced the dissolution of his party, The African Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics and Fraternity, known by its abbreviation PASTEF.

On July 31, 2023, Senegalese Interior Minister Antoine Felix Diome confirmed the dissolution of the PASTEF party, led by prominent detained opposition figure Ousmane Sonko.

Minister Diome said in a statement that the PASTEF was dissolved through a decree, attributing the decision to what he described as repeated calls for rebellion that resulted in a significant number of deaths between March 2021 and June 2023.

In response to these measures, Senegalese opposition figure Sonko denied committing any violations and called on the Senegalese people through social media to “be on high alert” to confront the ongoing violations against him.

On July 30, 2023, Sonko declared a hunger strike from inside his prison cell and wrote on Facebook, “Facing a lot of hatred, lies, suppression, and persecution, I have decided to resist. I am starting a hunger strike, and I call on all political detainees to do the same.”

The day after, Sonko wrote in a Facebook post, “I am now unjustly detained,” adding, “If the Senegalese people, for whom I have always fought, decide to abandon me in the hands of Macky Sall’s regime, then I will submit, as always, to the divine will.”

Following the criminal charges directed at opposition figure Sonko, including “conspiring to incite rebellion,” which could prevent him from running in the upcoming presidential elections, his lawyers deemed these charges as fabricated and a “farce” driven by political motives.

Lawyers and supporters of opposition figure Sonko believe that all these measures and accusations against him are part of a plan to prevent him from participating in the upcoming presidential elections.

Ousmane Sonko’s lawyer, Babacar Ndiaye, stated that the Senegalese political leadership aims to prevent Sonko from taking part in the upcoming presidential elections.

On August 1, 2023, Ndiaye stated in an interview with France 24, “Unfortunately, we now have a justice system that is almost subservient to the executive authority.”

Ousmane Sonko’s lawyer concluded that “the current system oppresses its political opponents, imprisoning them at will, and this is unfortunate for our democracy.”

These events are part of a long-standing conflict between the ruling party led by President Macky Sall and the PASTEF party led by Sonko.

Senegal has been known as a model of stability and peaceful transfer of power in Africa over the past 60 years since its independence. The country has rarely experienced conflicts, contributing to achieving constitutional, political, and economic stability.

However, there are concerns that this conflict might impact constitutional, political, and economic stability, especially with the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for February 2024.

What are the consequences of this conflict on the country’s political situation, which has enjoyed stability for decades? Does this political conflict threaten the long-standing stability Senegal has experienced?

 

Destabilizing Stability

Senegalese political science researcher Haroun Ba suggested that the current situation in Senegal could lead to “destabilizing the country’s stability.” He added, “It seems that the state is trying to control the situation legally.”

Ba further stated, “There might be tensions and acute crises, which we can currently observe in the severe polarization and stifling of political life.”

While it’s not expected that the country will descend into prolonged conflicts or coups, there could be acute crises that can be overcome.

The Senegalese researcher pointed out that the ruling coalition is grappling with the issue of who will succeed President Macky Sall during the upcoming presidential elections.

On July 3, 2023, Macky Sall announced that he would not seek a third term in the upcoming elections, putting an end to years of uncertainty about his political future.

Ba explained that the ruling coalition has not yet reached a final solution regarding Sall’s successor during the upcoming electoral events.

He mentioned concerns that problems might emerge within the ruling coalition itself, indicating that the threat to stability might come from the ruling elite itself rather than the opposition.

Ba noted that the country is about to celebrate the Grand Magal of Touba, during which religious leaders are expected to address calmness and stability.

The Grand Magal of Touba is an annual celebration commemorating the return of Sheikh Ahmadou Bamba Mbacke (1853–1927), the founder of the Mouride Brotherhood Sufi order, from exile in Gabon.

Ba concluded that despite the hardships, the Senegalese people could endure until the presidential elections, electing whoever they wish. This implies that there are alternative options for the people beyond resorting to prolonged conflict.

 

A Candidate for Violence

While the Senegalese researcher dismisses the possibility of the country sliding into prolonged conflict despite the severe crisis it is undergoing, Mauritanian expert on African affairs Mohamed Lemine Ould Ledah sees the decision to dissolve the PASTEF party as a potential trigger for violence and chaos in the country.

On August 1, 2023, Ould Ledah, in an interview with Al-Estiklal newspaper, attributed the possibility of violence and chaos to the large popular base of the PASTEF party, consisting of various spectrums, especially enthusiastic young supporters of the party’s principles and its leader.

The African affairs expert affirmed that the supporters of Senegalese opposition leader and PASTEF party leader Ousmane Sonko will resist the decision through widespread protests.

Regarding the possibility of Sonko’s candidacy in the upcoming presidential elections, Ould Ledah emphasized that this matter has been settled through judicial decisions, which are expected to be reinforced by additional criminal charges, effectively eliminating his eligibility to run.

Ould Ledah questioned why the call for assembly and protests is being interpreted as disturbing public order, suggesting manipulation of the law in this matter.

He also pointed out another factor behind Sonko’s prosecution and the dissolution of his party, relating to a lawsuit filed by a French lawyer against the state at the International Criminal Court.

On June 22, 2023, Juan Branco, a Spanish–French lawyer defending Ousmane Sonko, filed a complaint in France and requested an investigation at the International Criminal Court in The Hague against Senegalese President Macky Sall for “crimes against humanity” following severe disturbances in the country in early June 2023.

Ould Ledah noted that the state wants to shift the accusations aimed at them toward Sonko, implying that they want to turn the tables on him.

Instead of the state being accused, Sonko becomes the accused in all the events that have unfolded in the country.

On July 15, 2023, the Senegalese judiciary announced an international arrest warrant against Juan Branco on charges related to “crimes and offenses” linked to the disturbances that occurred in early June 2023 in Senegal.