Dangerous Israeli Escalation: What Are the Repercussions of Hassan Nasrallah’s Killing?

Over the past few hours, most political circles have been waiting to know the fate of the Secretary-General of the Lebanese Hezbollah group, Hassan Nasrallah, following the raid that “Israel” said targeted a meeting of the group’s leaders in the southern suburbs of Beirut earlier.

With Hezbollah confirming the assassination of its leader, this is the first targeting at this level since the assassination of the group’s former leader, Abbas al-Moussawi, in 1992.

Despite Hezbollah’s loss of its most prominent leaders in recent months, targeting its leader is an earthquake for the group and its Iranian ally.

The Israeli army and Hezbollah’s confirmation of the news of Hassan Nasrallah’s death puts the region in front of heated scenarios that may include direct intervention by Iran or its agents in the region to launch broader attacks on Israel.

It is noteworthy that the confrontation between Hezbollah and “Israel” escalated this September when thousands of Hezbollah’s wireless communication devices exploded simultaneously over two days, killing dozens and injuring thousands.

Since September 23, “Israel” has been carrying out its largest bombing campaign on various sites in Lebanon, which has so far killed 728 people, injured thousands, and forced tens of thousands of residents to flee the south.

Nasrallah’s Assassination 

In an unprecedented scene since the 2006 war, the Israeli occupation launched dozens of violent raids on the southern suburbs of Beirut on the evening of September 27 as part of its ongoing aggression against Lebanon, demanding that its residents evacuate it successively during the night hours.

Despite media outlets, including the Iranian Tasnim Agency, reporting that Nasrallah survived the attack and left the area minutes before the attack, Israeli media confirmed that the raids were accurate, and that Nasrallah was in the targeted area with senior leaders.

The Hebrew Channel 12 said that official Israeli estimates indicate that Nasrallah was injured in the attack on Hezbollah's central headquarters in the suburb.

On the morning of September 28, the Israeli army announced the success of the assassination operation of Hassan Nasrallah, the commander of Hezbollah's southern front, Ali Karaki, and a number of other leaders in the Lebanese party.

After sources close to Hezbollah indicated to Reuters that contact with Nasrallah's decision had been lost following the Israeli raid that targeted him on the afternoon of September 27, the party confirmed the death of its leader on the afternoon of September 28.

Israeli Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, said that “the elimination of Nasrallah was not the end of our toolbox,” indicating that more strikes were planned.

The Israeli army spokesman considered that Nasrallah had terrorized Israel for decades, and was one of the most influential terrorists in the world.

In turn, US officials confirmed that the reason behind the attack was that Nasrallah would not separate Hezbollah from the Gaza war and would not stop the fighting on Israel's northern border.

“Therefore, the decision was to remove him from the decision-making picture,” they said.

Axios quoted an Israeli official as saying that Israel notified the U.S. minutes before the strike in Beirut, but two senior US officials denied this, saying that they had not received any prior warning.

In this regard, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh confirmed that the U.S. had not received prior warning of the Israeli strike in Beirut, adding that Israeli Army Minister Yoav Gallant spoke by phone with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin while the strike was taking place.

According to Hebrew media, accurate intelligence was obtained on the morning of September 23 about a meeting of Hezbollah leadership attended by Nasrallah. As a result, the Israeli army decided to approve the assassination operation, which had been prepared in advance for years.

Because such a major assassination operation could deteriorate the situation into war, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to convene his security cabinet and brief the ministers on the plan and its consequences.

A discussion took place about whether it was really appropriate for Netanyahu to travel to the United States to address the UN General Assembly.

Israeli intelligence confirmed that Netanyahu's travel would be a good cover for the operation, noting that Hezbollah expects that Israel will not carry out such an assassination while he is abroad.

Dangerous Escalation

Iran commented on the violent Israeli strike that targeted the southern suburbs of Beirut, which resulted in the martyrdom and injury of dozens, and the leveling of 6 buildings to the ground.

Iran's supreme leader adviser Ali Larijani said that the resistance has strong leaders and cadres and every leader who is martyred will have a replacement.

Iranian media reported that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned the attack, describing it as “a clear and undeniable war crime that reveals once again the nature of state terrorism practiced by the Zionist regime.”

In turn, the Iranian embassy in Lebanon said that the condemned Israeli crime represents a dangerous escalation that changes the rules of the game.

Iran and Hezbollah have repeatedly threatened that the rules of the game will change if the occupation expands its targeting of Lebanon.

It is noteworthy that the assassination of Nasrallah will represent the second strike of this level, after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, head of the political bureau of the Palestinian Hamas movement, while he was in the Iranian capital, Tehran, on July 31.

Since then, Iran has vowed to respond to “Israel”, which has not officially claimed responsibility for the assassination of Haniyeh.

Tel Aviv had previously assassinated the deputy head of Hamas’s political bureau, Saleh al-Arouri, in the southern suburbs of Beirut on January 2, and the prominent Hezbollah leader, Fuad Shukr, on July 30.

On September 20, it assassinated the prominent Hezbollah leader Ibrahim Aqil.

On September 24, “Israel” assassinated the prominent Hezbollah military leader, Ibrahim Muhammad Qubaisi, and then the leader Muhammad Hussein Surur on the 26th of the same month.

On September 27, the Israeli army said in a statement that its forces had killed Muhammad Ali Ismail, who was known to be the commander of Hezbollah’s missile unit, and his deputy, Hussein Ahmad Ismail.

Expected Scenarios

Hassan Nasrallah's assassination increases fears that the region could slide into open confrontation, as the Israeli strike came a day after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu backed down from understandings with the US administration regarding a temporary ceasefire proposal in Lebanon.

US officials indicated that according to early understandings with Netanyahu, he was supposed to issue a statement welcoming the ceasefire proposal and expressing his readiness to discuss it.

However, when Netanyahu landed in New York, he issued a completely different statement, saying: “Our policy is clear: We continue to strike Hezbollah with full force. We will not stop until we achieve all our goals, foremost among them the safe return of the residents of the north to their homes. This is the policy, and no one should mistake it.”

In a related context, Israel's recent efforts to assassinate Hassan Nasrallah, according to the Jerusalem Post, indicate an Israeli change in the rules of engagement in its battle against what it described as ‘the axis of evil’.

The assassination also sends a clear message about Israel's determination and boldness towards the entire region, especially Iran, which could undoubtedly lead to regional fluctuations.

The latest Israeli escalation exacerbates fears that the conflict could spiral out of control to include Iran, the main supporter of Hezbollah, as well as the U.S.

The Jerusalem Post believes that the Israeli army must now prepare for several scenarios and their repercussions, whether defensive or offensive.

It pointed out that the most extreme scenario includes Iran's poisoning of Hezbollah and the Houthis by launching a large-scale missile and drone attack on Israel's home front.

It added that the most dangerous scenario is that Iran itself could directly participate in the conflict by launching strikes from its territory, although this possibility is considered low.

The Jerusalem Post noted that in an initial reaction and in preparation for the deterioration of the situation, the Israeli army raised its alert level to the maximum on land, at sea, and in air defense, and reinforced the Northern Command with two infantry brigades to prepare for ground maneuvers in Lebanon.

“Israel” also decided to raise the alert level in all its embassies around the world.

In turn, military analyst Colonel Omar Melhem explained in a statement to Al-Estiklal that “Nasrallah’s assassination represents a specific point for the future of the confrontation between Israel on the one hand and Tehran and its agents on the other hand.”

“Hezbollah stands today at a crossroads, after receiving painful blows over the past week, and losing almost all of its first-tier leaders. It is now facing a harsh test about how it will respond to the assassination of its leader,” he said.

“Iran will have two scenarios: either it unleashes its arms in the region to intensify and diversify attacks to include the Israeli depth, or it carries out a qualitative operation that will drag the region into a comprehensive war,” he added.

He concluded that “the two scenarios are not without great risks for the region, and indicate that the battle will continue for weeks and perhaps months to come, regardless of the parties involved.”